After a full 15-game slate last night, Wednesday brings us another solid slate with 14 games. Pitching is not nearly as deep as last night, but we still have some solid options to choose from tonight. One note I want to point out as we wrap up the MLB season is to make sure to check teams lineups when picking your starting pitchers. Last night, Justin Verlander essentially faced the Indians B-team as they were resting their starters after clinching the division the night before. It immediately put Verlander as a top option, and he delivered a 42.3 fantasy point performance. So make sure to keep that in mind. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

TEX (-200) vs. MIL – Cole Hamels – Hamels takes on a Brewers team that owns a .340 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season with a .354 OBP and a .444 SLG. Hamels has not been his strongest at Globe Life Park, owning a .346 wOBA with a .438 SLG and a 13 of his 23 total home runs allowed. Right-handed batters have hit him the hardest here, as they’ve accounted for 11 of those home runs and a .373 wOBA. As of this afternoon, the Brewers have an implied run total of just 3.7, which is amongst one of the lowest in the league tonight. Nonetheless, we certainly have some hitters on this team that hit left-handed pitching well, with Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar quickly coming to mind.

Highest Total

MIL vs. TEX – 9.5 runs – Not only are the Rangers the biggest favorite, but this game also has the highest projected run total of the night. We’ve gone over the Brewers taking on Hamels, so let’s take a look at what’s in store for the Rangers taking on Chase Anderson. His biggest issue is home runs, as he’s allowed 27 on the season, which averages out to just under two per nine innings. Along with that, right-handed batters crush Anderson, allowing a .385 wOBA to them on the road with a .583 SLG with 10 of those 27 home runs. With the Rangers hitting so well at home and full of right-handed bats, I think they should be able to meet their projected 5.4-projected run total for tonight.

Weather Concerns

BOS vs. NYY (Yankee Stadium) – This game should start off with no issues, but a chance of rain will loom once we get near the 4th inning. It looks like it would be on and off all night, so keep an eye on this one.

ARZ vs. WAS (Nationals Park) – Out of all the games tonight, this has the most potential danger. With almost a 90% chance of thunderstorms, they may not be able to fit this one in. Check this one closer to game time.

CLE vs. DET (Comerica Park) – Comerica Park will be very similar to Yankee Stadium tonight, as the rain will come and go all throughout the night. I don’t think it’s enough to cause it much disruption, but it’s worth looking before first pitch.

TBR vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Some rain will be around at first pitch but should clear out soon after. Doesn’t look like a real problem for this game.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

Kauffman Stadium – MIN vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our number one ballpark on this 15-game slate. Every offensive category except home runs are favored here.

Globe Life Park – MIL vs TEX – The Rangers host the Brewers tonight, as Globe Life Park checks in as our number two ballpark. All offensive categories get the nod here.

Marlins Park – NYM vs MIA – The Mets visit Marlins Park with it’s unfavorable stats for hitters. Coming into tonight, we have a whopping zero categories for hitters.

LAA Stadium – OAK vs LAA – The Angels host the A’s tonight in the second worst ballpark for hitters. Coming into this game, only home runs get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Shelby Miller.971.336Jake Arrieta.580.184
Alex Meyer.949.290Michael Fulmer.598.213
Bryan Mitchell.861.333Cole Hamels.605.208

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson.909.302Jake Arrieta.546.188
Adam Morgan.904.308Anthony DeSclafani.568.195
Sonny Gray.891.289Seth Lugo.634.231

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Matt CarpenterAnthony DeSclafani124.75
Adam JonesFrancisco Liriano182.83
Ryan BraunCole Hamels342.08

  • We start off our BvP section with Matt Carpenter taking on Anthony DeSclafani. Carpenter has gone 6-12 with a double, triple, two home runs, three RBIs and three walks.
  • Next we have Adam Jones taking on Francisco Liriano. Jones has gone 6-18 with a double, three home runs and five RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Ryan Bruan taking on Cole Hamels. Braun has gone 12-34 with a double, three home runs and five RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose De Leon – LAD vs SDP – $8,500– De Leon is certainly not the flashiest name on the slate, but I think he’s in a fantastic position against the Padres tonight. As we’ve stated time and time again, the Padres are one of the worst teams when it comes to strikeouts, as they own the second highest K% in the league. With a 25.9 K%, De Leon should be able to capitalize against the Padres for the second time this season. In that first start, De Leon grabbed 25.9 fantasy points by going six innings, allowing three runs on five hits with a 9:0 K:BB ratio. De Leon does have some inflated numbers because he’s had two unfavorable match ups against the Diamondbacks and Yankees, but I think he’s in a nice bounce back spot. Back in a pitcher friendly atmosphere at Petco Park, I think De Leon can pay back his $8,500 salary.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Matt Kemp – ATL vs. PHI (Adam Morgan) – $5,000 – The entire Braves team has been hitting extremely well as of late and they’re setup for another nice matchup tonight. Matt Kemp is facing a left-handed pitching in Adam Morgan, which always plays right into his wheelhouse. On the season, Kemp owns a .382 wOBA against lefties with a .598 SLG and 10 of his 33 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ian Desmond – TEX vs. MIL (Chase Anderson) – $3,700 – A $3,700 price tag doesn’t feel too steep for someone that has hit over 20 home runs this season. Ian Desmond will get a crack at Chase Anderson tonight, whom I mentioned struggles immensely against right-handed batters. At home this season, Desmond owns a .349 wOBA with with a .351 OBP. With the amount of home runs Anderson allowed, Desmond could easily pick up one tonight and add to his total.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.