As the baseball regular season starts to wind down, we have one of the last full slates of the season tonight. Pitching is stacked at the top, and we have some heavy hitters to consider. Let’s get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

STL (-215) vs. CIN – Adam Wainwright – After what seemed like a favorable matchup last night for Jaime Garcia, the Reds lit up the Cardinals to a tune of 15 runs, with Garcia being pulled after just one inning as he allowed two runs on four hits. Wainwright has been extremely effective at home compared to his road numbers coming into this start tonight. At Busch Stadium, Wainwright owns a .287 wOBA with a .351 SLG and a .310 OBP. The Reds have faced him at home this season back in April, where they lit him up for seven runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. For his price ($7,900), he isn’t in a bad spot. Even with their offense outburst last night, the Reds remain one of the worst hitting clubs on the road this season, owners of a .303 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a .393 SLG.

Highest Total

MIL vs. TEX –10.5 runs – The Brewers and Rangers are once again tabbed as the highest projected run total of the night at 10.5 runs. Jimmy Nelson and A.J. Griffin will take the mound tonight in a game that should feature fireworks just like yesterday. Nelson comes into this game owning a .367 wOBA on the road this season with a .455 SLG with 10 of his 23 total home runs allowed. Lefties have hit him the hardest, as evidenced by his .388 wOBA. Nelson has really been struggling as of late, allowing at least four earned runs in six of his last 10 starts. With this Rangers team hitting as well as they have at home, he’s certainly someone I like to target against.

With A.J. Griffin, he’s not exactly the poster child for pitching well at home. Owning a .343 wOBA at Globe Life Park this season, Griffin is allowing just over two home runs per nine innings this season, with 28 allowed in just 22 starts. With 10 of those coming at home, the heavy hitting Brewers should be able to tee off on the Rangers’ righty. Griffin has been having a horrific second half of the season, allowing a .378 wOBA with a .561 SLG and 19 of his 26 total home runs.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – MIN vs KCR  Kauffman Stadium checks in as our number one ballpark on this 15-game slate tonight. Every offensive category except home runs are favored here.
  • Globe Life Park – MIL vs TEX – The Rangers host the Brewers tonight, as Globe Life Park checks in as our number two ballpark. All offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Minute Maid Park – SEA vs HOU – Minute Maid Park is home to our worst ballpark of the night as they host the Mariners. No offensive categories are favored here.
  • Marlins Park – NYM vs MIA – The Mets visit Marlins Park with it’s unfavorable stats for hitters. Coming into tonight, we have a whopping zero categories favoring hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
A.J. Griffin.984.288Mike Clevinger.505.174
Alex Cobb.934.361Jose De Leon.518.172
Ryan Vogelsong.929.294Chris Sale.570.188

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jose De Leon1.256.385Max Scherzer.459.184
Jose Berrios1.062.330Julio Teheran.569.214
Paul Clemens.990.329Noah Syndergaard.591.232

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Chris DavisAaron Sanchez144.62
Anthony RizzoRyan Vogelsong114
Brian McCannDavid Price292.31

  • Chris Davis hasn’t matched up with Aaron Sanchez many times, but when he has, he’s made the most of it. In his career, Davis is 6-14 with a double, three home runs, four RBIs and eight walks.
  • Next we have Anthony Rizzo and another short sample size against Ryan Vogelsong. Rizzo is 4-11 with a double, three home runs and five RBIs.
  • Finally, we showcase Brian McCann taking on David Price. McCann has gone 10-29 with three home runs and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – CHW vs TBR – $14,000 – If you’ve read my articles in the past, you may have seen me state how much I hate paying for pitching after they reach the $13,000 mark. So paying $14,000 for Chris Sale is a tough one for me, but man, what a matchup. Sale has faced this club before and he threw an absolute gem, going the complete nine innings allowing no runs on just two hits with a 9:0 K:BB ratio. Facing a team that owns the third highest K% against left-handed pitching in the league is certainly worth looking at tonight in my opinion, even at the elevated price tag.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. PIT (Ryan Vogelsong) – $5,500 – Even if Rizzo didn’t have that BvP against Vogelsong, he would most likely still be in this spot tonight. Lefties have mashed against Vogelsong this season, as he owns a .397 wOBA against them with a .538 SLG a .391 OBP and six of his 11 home runs allowed. Rizzo has been a beast on the road this season and his .442 wOBA against righties in this situation is a true testament to that.

Save Big by Drafting…

Mitch Moreland – TEX vs. MIL (Jimmy Nelson) – $2,600 – I think Moreland is a super sneaky play tonight and his $2,600 salary really is a bargain in my opinion. You’re getting a first baseman that has hit 22 home runs on the season with 13 of those coming at home and in the highest projected run total of the night. Nelson against lefties on the road owns a .388 wOBA with a .486 SLG and a .413 OBP. Moreland owns a .349 wOBA against righties at home with a .509 SLG. Moreland is a great salary saver, and I think he’s worth a look.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.