A 10-game slate will kick off our week for MLB on this Monday night. Let’s get you set, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

WAS (-200) vs. ARZ – Tanner Roark – The Nationals and Tanner Roark check in as the heavy favorites for tonight as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Roark comes with a hefty $10,400 price tag tonight, but his performance as of late certainly warrants it. Over his last five games, Roark is averaging 21.3 FPPG while allowing no more than two earned runs in any of those starts. He looks to continue what could be his best month of pitching this season, as he owns just a .255 wOBA this month with a .309 OBP and a .321 SLG. Per usual, Roark still isn’t grabbing an impressive number of strikeouts, owning just a 6.5 K/9 in the second half of the season, but he’s been making up for it by shutting hitters down. The D-Backs haven’t been very good on the road this season, owning just a .307 wOBA with a .399 SLG and a .316 OBP. Roark has been good enough lately that it’s hard for me to think he can’t get it done tonight.

Highest Total

MIL vs. TEX –10 runs – – The Brewers will play the Rangers in some inter league action tonight and also carry the highest projected run total of the night. With Matt Garza and Martin Perez taking the mound, it’s easy to see why. Garza comes into this matchup the owner of a .360 wOBA on the road this season with a .463 SLG And a .374 OBP. Left-handed batters have hit him especially hard on the road, as they own a .395 wOBA with a .408 OBP.

For Perez, the lefty for the Rangers has been good overall at home this season, but as always, righties have been giving him problems. At Globe Life Park, Perez is allowing a .334 wOBA to right-handed batters with eight of his 16 home runs allowed. With some big power bats in this Brewers lineup like Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez and Chris Cater, Perez could most certainly run into trouble here. Let’s also not forget that the Brewers will gain a DH with this being at an American League ballpark, not making life any easier for Perez.

Weather Concerns

CHC vs. PIT (Wrigley Field) – This game has a decent chance of rain when first pitch rolls around, but should clear out soon after. Check closer to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Globe Life Park – MIL vs TEX – The Rangers host the Brewers tonight, as Globe Life Park checks in as our number one ballpark. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Rogers Centre – NYY vs TOR  The Yankees will visit the Rogers Centre for this divisional matchup tonight. Coming into this game, all offensive categories are favored here.
  • Minute Maid Park – SEA vs HOU – From one bad park to another, the Mariners will visit Minute Maid Park tonight. No offensive categories are favored in this one.
  • Marlins Park – NYM vs MIA – Just like Minute Maid Park, no offensive categories are favored in Marlins Park.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Archie Bradley.921.313Sean Manaea.511.170
Jered Weaver.879.306Martin Perez.550.180
James Shields.870.287Kyle Hendricks.618.218

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
James Shields.939.297Kyle Hendricks.541.189
Jered Weaver.877.299Corey Kluber.608.205
Luis Severino.877.299Chad Kuhl.620.211

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Miguel CabreraCorey Kluber453.06
Chris CarterMartin Perez183
Jose AltuveHisashi Iwakuma352.28

  • Miguel Cabrera will be looking forward to one of his favorite match ups, taking on Corey Kluber. Cabrera is 20-45 with two doubles, five home runs, 10 RBIs and 3 BB.
  • Chris Carter takes on Martin Perez where he’s seen some success in a limited sample size. Carter is 8-18 with a double, two home runs, five RBIs and two walks
  • Jose Altuve takes on Hisashi Iwakuma tonight, as these two have met many times before. Altuve is 15-35 with six doubles, a home run and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

J.A. Happ – TOR vs NYY – $10,100 – Happ continues to be a solid presence on the mound for the Blue Jays. Facing the Yankees at home, Happ is averaging 20 FPPG at the Rogers Centre with a K/9 of 9.1 and a .290 wOBA. The Yankees continue to struggle against left-handed pitching this season, owners of a .296 wOBA with a .311 OBP and a .367 SLG. They don’t strikeout a ton as they have just a 17.3 K%, but Happ owns a 7.2 K/9 against them this season in four starts.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ryan Braun – MIL vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $5,500 – Braun has hit left-handed pitching extremely well this season, so a matchup against Martin Perez is right where we want him to be. Overall, Braun owns a .425 wOBA with .617 SLG and a 1.035 OPS. Braun hasn’t crushed lefties when it comes to home runs, with only eight of his 30, but switching to an American League park should certainly play to his benefit.

Save Big by Drafting…

Derek Dietrich – MIA vs. NYM (Bartolo Colon) – $3,400 – Dietrich has quietly been hitting the ball extremely well as of late, and tonight he gets a matchup against Bartolo Colon. Over his past 10 games, Dietrich is 10-20 with two doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs and seven runs scored. Facing Colon, who is allowing a .350 wOBA to lefties on the road, Dietrich could continue that streak tonight if he draws the start.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.