Friday always brings us a solid slate of games and tonight is no different. As we head into the weekend, we have 14 games to evaulaute in this article. Let’s get you set for this slate and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
TOR (-200) vs. NYY – Francisco Liriano – The Blue Jays are heavy favorites tonight as they matchup against the New York Yankees. Since being traded from Pittsburgh, Liriano has amassed a .342 wOBA, .466 SLG and a K/9 of 9.9. Walks were a huge problem for Liriano before the trade as he owned a 5.3 BB/9, but he’s brought them done some to 3.7 BB/9. Facing the Yankees, Liriano is well positioned as the Yanks have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, holding just a .298 wOBA against LHP. The only problem is they aren’t striking out much either with a 17.2 K%, which is the second lowest in the league. Liriano is not overly expensive tonight with a $7,300 salary, but he’s been so wildly inconsistent that it’s tough to feel good about him.
ARZ vs. BAL –10.5 runs – – Who is ready for some late season inter-league action?! The Diamondbacks visit Camden Yards, in what is projecting to be the highest run total of the evening. Shelby Miller will take on Yovani Gallardo, so it’s easy to see why we have such a high total here. Since Miller has returned to the big club he’s been bad, lasting just 12.2 innings in three September starts, Miller has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) on 26 hits with a 9:3 K:BB ratio. He’s essentially entered the realm of zero fantasy upside at this point and stacking the Orioles seems quite logical tonight.
It doesn’t get much better for the Orioles as they run out Gallardo tonight. His numbers at Camden Yards have been rough, as he’s the owner of a .353 wOBA with a .449 SLG. Gallardo has also been having some issues with the long ball as of late, as he’s allowed at least one in four straight starts now. With the D-Backs getting the benefit of a DH tonight, this is most certainly a game you want to target in terms of hitting.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Progressive Field – CHW vs CLE – Progressive Field checks in as our number one ballpark for tonight as they host the White Sox. All categories are favored here except triples.
- Rogers Centre – NYY vs TOR – The Rogers Centre is home to our number two ballpark tonight as they Yankees come to town. All offensive categories are favored here.
- Minute Maid Park – LAA vs HOU – Minute Maid Park is currently the worst ballpark in all of baseball in terms of offense. No categories are favored here.
- Dodger Stadium – COL vs LAD – The Rockies move from the best ballpark in baseball to one of the worst. No offensive categories are favored at Dodger Stadium.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Shelby Miller||.997||.346||Danny Duffy||.451||.183|
|Andrew Cashner||.911||.294||Cole Hamels||.595||.204|
|Kyle Gibson||.904||.335||Michael Fulmer||.610||.216|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adam Morgan||.925||.312||Seth Lugo||.580||.223|
|Chase Anderson||.907||.302||Jeff Samardzija||.647||.225|
|Mike Clevinger||.877||.274||Justin Verlander||.654||.219|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Rajai Davis||Miguel Gonzalez||17||3.94|
|Yoenis Cespedes||Jeremy Hellickson||13||3.92|
|David Ortiz||Chris Archer||37||3.02|
- Tonight features some really solid BvP stats as we kick off with Davis against Gonzalez. Davis is 7-17 with a double, triple, three home runs and nine RBI.
- Next we have Cespedes taking on Hellickson. The Met’s power hitter is 6-14 with three home runs and six RBI.
- Finally we have Ortiz against Archer. Ortiz is 14-37 with four doubles, three home runs, 17 RBI and four walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Drew Pomeranz – BOS vs TBR – $8,700 – I’m a bit torn about throwing Pomeranz in this section for tonight. First off, we have some inflated prices at the top of the list tonight, with Danny Duffy, Anthony DeSclafani and Jon Gray rounding out the top three. Therefore, seeing Pomeranz all the way down at $8,700 certainly feels like some nice value. His past two outings have been ugly to say the least, but I think a start against the Rays at Tropicana Field will do the trick. Over his two starts earlier this month against the Rays, Pomeranz went 12.2 innings allowing five runs on 12 hits with a 19:3 K:BB ratio. Even with his recent struggles, the Rays are only projected to score 3.6 runs.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Chris Davis – BAL vs. ARZ (Shelby Miller) – $4,600 – The entire Orioles’ lineup has been scuffling at the plate lately. If you go through their lineup and look at what they’ve done over the past 10 games, it’s not very impressive. However, a little dose of Shelby Miller can cure any offensive woes. Miller has been crushed (no pun intended) by lefties this season, so it only seems natural to get Davis in that lineup tonight. Coming into this game, Miller owns a .420 wOBA against lefties with a .578 SLG and has allowed 9 homers.
Save Big by Drafting…
Jonathan Villar – MIL vs. CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) – $3,600 – I’m a bit perplexed as to why DeSclafani is so expensive, but nonetheless, I love this price for Villar. As a switch hitter batting leadoff, Villar has a nice matchup on tap with DeSclafani as he’s allowed a .374 wOBA to lefties on the road with a .574 SLG. Villar owns a .340 wOBA against righties at home.
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