With a 10-game slate on tap tonight, we have plenty of different ways to tackle these games. Let’s dive right in, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
NYM (-185) vs. PHI – Seth Lugo – Seth Lugo and the Mets are tabbed as the heavy favorites for tonight as they take on the Phillies. Last night, the Phillies pulled out a shocker, tagging Chris Sale for six runs in just four innings on seven hits. While the performance was impressive, let’s not forget that statistically, this is one of if not the worst hitting team in the majors. Coming into tonight, the Phillies rank last in team wOBA, OBP and SLG. Lugo has been fairly impressive since becoming a starter, averaging 16.1 FPPG in six starts with a 23:10 K:BB ratio. To me, Lugo is a fantastic value on this slate with just a $6,700 price tag and pitching at Citi Field. A score in the mid-teens is certainly a reasonable expectation tonight.
PIT vs. MIL – 9.5 runs – – Only one game is tabbed at 9.5 projected runs for tonight, and that honor belongs to the Pirates and Brewers. Ryan Vogelsong and Chase Anderson will take the mound for their respective teams tonight in a game that should see some offense. After a solid month of August, Vogelsong owns a .470 wOBA in September, allowing 17 runs (15 earned) in just 12.2 innings. Lefties have been hitting him the hardest, owning a .382 wOBA against him with a .513 SLG and a .381 OBP.
Anderson has just as bad at home as he has on the road, owning a .342 wOBA at Miller Park with a .464 SLG and a .333 OBP. Anderson is no stranger to letting up a few home runs either with 26 on the season with 11 of those coming at home. Right-handed batters have hit him the hardest at home, owners of a .387 wOBA with a .530 SLG.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Progressive Field – KCR vs CLE – Progressive Field checks in as our number one ballpark for tonight as the Indians host the Royals. All categories are favored here except triples.
- Target Field – DET vs MIN – Target Field is our second most favorable ballpark on the night as they continue their series against the Tigers. Coming into this game, all categories except home runs are favored.
- Minute Maid Park – LAA vs HOU – Minute Maid Park is currently the worst ballpark in all of baseball in terms of offense. No categories are favored here for hitters.
- Marlins Park – ATL vs MIA – Marlins Park is number two on our list tonight as the Marlins host the Atlanta Braves. Just like Minute Maid Park, no hitter categories are favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Ryan Vogelsong||.893||.291||Mike Clevinger||.518||.171|
|Jose Urena||.812||.296||Blake Snell||.616||.234|
|Jeff Samardzija||.801||.276||Justin Verlander||.627||.196|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adam Morgan||.925||.312||Seth Lugo||.580||.223|
|Chase Anderson||.907||.302||Jeff Samardzija||.647||.225|
|Mike Clevinger||.877||.274||Justin Verlander||.654||.219|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Starling Marte||Chase Anderson||12||3.08|
|Mike Napoli||Jason Vargas||32||2.81|
|Jon Jay||Jeff Samardzija||30||1.86|
- Tonight doesn’t exactly feature any stunning BvP stats, but we have a few that are more than respectable. We start off with Marte taking on Anderson going 6-12 with two doubles, a home run and two RBIs.
- Next we have Mike Napoli taking on Kenny Vargas. Napoli has gone 12-32 with two doubles, four home runs, six RBIs and five walks.
- Finally, we feature Jon Jay taking on Jeff Samardzija. Jay has gone 12-30 with a double, a home run and three RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
David Price – BOS vs BAL – $10,800 – Aside from this last start against the Yankees, Price had been cruising as of late. Since the All-Star Break, Price has posted a .291 wOBA with a .398 SLG and a .285 OBP. He faces the Orioles for the fifth time this season, and he’s pitched extremely well against them. In his prior starts, Price has gone 27 innings allowing 11 runs on 16 hits with a 32:2 K:BB ratio. Price has only faced the Orioles once this season at Camden Yards, turning in a solid performance. In that start, Price went six innings allowing one run on four hits with a 4:0 K:BB ratio. Dropping in salary since his last start, I like Price a lot tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Yoenis Cespedes – NYM vs. PHI (Adam Morgan) – $5,100 – For someone that has hit 30 home runs this season, Cespedes certainly doesn’t get a ton of love. Well I’m here to change that with his matchup with Adam Morgan tonight. On the road, right-handed batters have crushed Morgan, allowing a .408 wOBA with a .620 SLG and a .365 OBP. With Morgan allowing almost two home runs per start this season, Cespedes should have the opportunity for a nice game here tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Josh Bell – PIT vs. MIL (Chase Anderson) – $3,200 – Here’s a cheap way to get some exposure to the highest projected run total of the night. Bell is only $3,200 tonight and is eligible at both first base and the outfield, giving you some nice flexibility. Right-handed batters, especially at home, have been hitting Chase Anderson hard this season. Coming into this game, Anderson has a .387 wOBA with a .530 SLG.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.