For the third night in a row, we have some fantastic pitching options to choose from. On this 12 game slate, we have four pitchers that priced at least $10K and some great value after that. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

CHC (-240) vs. CIN – John Lackey – The Chicago Cubs and Lackey are the favorites tonight on this 12 game slate as they take on the Reds. Lackey comes with a big price drop from his last start, going from $10,500 to $8,800. It certainly makes sense, as he’s been average at best in the of September. In three starts, Lackey has averaged 16.2 FPPG allowing seven runs on 14 hits in 18 innings since coming off the Disabled List. The good news is he’s generating plenty of swings and misses still, so it’s only a matter of time before Lackey straightens it out. Unfortunately for Lackey, he’s been hit hard twice already by this Reds team out of the three starts he’s had against them. In those starts, Lackey has pitched 18.2 allowing 14 runs with a 16:9 K:BB ratio.

Highest Total

LAA vs. TEX –10.5 runs – With no Coors Field on this slate, we can take about the Angels and Rangers with their 10.5 projected runs for tonight. Jered Weaver and Derek Holland will take the mound in this one. Weaver actually had a solid game against the Rangers just recently in L.A., where he pitched six innings allowing two runs on four hits with an 8:2 K:BB ratio. Chalk that up to a bad night for the Rangers, as Weaver hadn’t scored more than 20 fantasy points since July 7th. Weaver has been brutal on the road this season, owning a .380 wOBA with a .541 SLG and a .360 OBP. With an astounding 36 home runs allowed this season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the complete opposite of his last start against these Rangers.

Derek Holland has surprisingly pitched well at home this season, owning an overall .308 wOBA in 43.1 innings. Right-handed batters have given him the most trouble as always, with a .322 wOBA and a .423 SLG. It’s a bit hard to predict just what this Angels lineup is capable of, as it’s almost unrecognizable with all the call ups they’ve been playing as of late. Nonetheless, the park shift is certainly in favor for the hitters and I’m expecting this game to feature some fireworks.

Weather Concerns

CIN vs CHC (Wrigley Field) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms to begin this game. If anything pops up, it should clear out as the night progresses.

DET vs MIN (Target Field) – Minnesota is expecting rain all throughout the day and the chances of it increases as the night progresses. Definitely check this game closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – KCR vs CLE – Without Coors Field on this slate, Progressive Field checks in as our number one ballpark for tonight. Coming into this game, all categories except triples are favored here.
  • Globe Life Park – LAA vs TEX – Globe Life Park is not only home to our highest projected run total of the night, but the second favored park for hitters. All categories get the nod here.
  • Dodger Stadium – SFG vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is always at the bottom of the list when it comes to Park Factors and tonight is no different. Without a single category favoring hitters, it’s our worst park of the night.
  • Marlins Park – WAS vs MIA – The Marlins host the Nationals tonight at Marlins Park, where they’ll be stretched to find a category that favors hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios.918.317Chris Sale.570.188
Ubaldo Jimenez.907.299Derek Holland.583.247
Jered Weaver.865.303Masahiro Tanaka.632.233

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios1.062.330Max Scherzer.461.150
Robert Stephenson.896.273Corey Kluber.549.197
Jered Weaver.892.273Kenta Maeda.578.215

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Bryce HarperTom Koehler293.65
Albert PujolsDerek Holland312.48
Freddie FreemanBartolo Colon302.4

  • We have some good sample sizes in tonight’s BvP section. First we start off with Bryce Harper, who has completely owned Tom Koehler. Harper is 10-29 with a double, six home runs, 11 RBIs and five walks.
  • Next, we have Albert Pujols taking on Derek Holland. Pujols has gone 9-31 with three doubles, four home runs and six RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Freddie Freeman against Bartolo Colon. Batting almost .500 against him, Freeman is 14-30 with five doubles, a home run and three RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Corey Kluber – CLE vs KCR – $11,900 – What I like most about Kluber tonight is his salary compared to guys like Scherzer and Sale. Both of those pitchers are certainly in good spots tonight, but $14,000 and $13,000 respectively is a tad too expensive for my liking. Thus, Kluber at $11,900 feels reasonable as he takes on the Royals. What’s consistent about Kluber is the amount of innings he goes. Over his last 15 starts, Kluber has gone at least six innings in all but one of those starts and has reached the eighth in four of them. With Kluber grabbing at least 20 fantasy points in seven straight starts, I think he’s a fine option in both formats tonight.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Adrian Beltre – TEX vs. LAA (Jered Weaver) – $4,600 – The salary for Beltre sure doesn’t feel like much when compared to how he’s hit as of late. In the month of September, Beltre owns a .441 wOBA with a .629 SLG and a .423 OBP. Playing at home tonight against Jered Weaver feels like such a perfect scenario to keep that hot streak alive. With the amount of home runs Weaver has allowed this season (36) I have a hard time believe Beltre can’t add onto that number. His hard hit ball percentage sits at 37.5%, which is the second highest of the season followed by the month of August where he was at astounding 42.2%. I like Beltre tonight in this spot with plenty of opportunities to produce.


Save Big by Drafting…

Andrew Benintendi – BOS vs. BAL (Ubaldo Jimenez) – $2,900 – Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched pretty well as of late. However, with the Red Sox in town, I’m thinking that may change rather quickly tonight. Jimenez has been atrocious at home against left-handed batters, so grabbing Benintendi at just $2,900 feels like some nice value for tonight. He does bat ninth in the order, which isn’t the ideal spot, but he’s consistently puts up points when he plays. Jimenez will enter this game allowing a .429 to lefties at home with a .573 SLG.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.