Tuesday always brings us a solid slate of games, and today does not disappoint as all 30 teams will be in action today. With some big name pitchers on deck for tonight, I’ll get you ready for this awesome slate of games. As always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
TEX (-180) vs. LAA – A.J. Griffin – Jose Fernandez, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Julio Teheran. What do all these elite pitchers have in common? They’re playing second fiddle to A.J. Griffin and the Rangers as the heavy favorites for tonight. Griffin takes on the Angels for the third time this season, with this being the first start at Globe Life Park. In those prior two starts, Griffin pitched 11 innings, allowing eight runs on 10 hits with a 3:5 K:BB ratio. With the Angels being a tough team to strikeout to begin with, I have little to no interest in rostering Griffin tonight, even in GPPs.
STL vs. COL –11.5 runs – Another big run total for the Cardinals and Rockies tonight as Adam Wainwright and Jorge De La Rosa take the mound. Last night didn’t live up to the high run total as I expected, as only eight runs crossed the plate last night. However, I think we have a good chance of coming close to the 11.5 total with these two taking the mound. Wainwright has been getting hit extremely hard on the road this season, owning a .368 wOBA with a .515 SLG and a .357 OBP. The second half of the season hasn’t been very kind to him either, as he’s already allowed eight home runs in 71.1 innings after allowing eight in 110.1 in the first half. With both left and right-handed batters hitting him hard on the road, he could be in for a long (short) night.
In this section recently, we’ve discussed how De La Rosa has been pitching better at Coors Field compared to his road numbers. It wasn’t great by any means, but I think even the thought of that can be tossed out the window now. In his last two home starts, De La Rosa has gone 11 innings allowing 10 runs (five earned) on 16 hits with a 7:5 K:BB ratio. Yes, half of his runs weren’t earned, but I’m not a believer of giving a pitcher a complete pass when errors occur. De La Rosa is the owner of a .463 wOBA in the month of September with a .688 SLG and a .446 OBP. I think hitters should thrive in this spot tonight and this is a Coors game I’d be interested in getting exposure to.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – STL vs COL No surprises here as we’re in the midst of a Coors Field series. As always, every offensive category get the nod at the holy grail for hitting.
- Progressive Field – KCR vs CLE – Progressive Field checks in as our number two ballpark for tonight as the Indians host the Royals. All categories are favored here except triples.
- Dodger Stadium – SFG vs LAD – No real advantage for either team here, as both play in some unfavorable ballparks for hitters. Dodger Stadium is at the bottom of the list tonight with no categories favored.
- Marlins Park – WAS vs MIA – Marlins Park is number two on our list tonight as they host the Washington Nationals. Just like Dodger Stadium, no categories are favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|A.J. Griffin||.990||.291||Rich Hill||.390||.163|
|Archie Bradley||.918||.315||Sean Manaea||.511||.170|
|Jake Thompson||.908||.301||Jon Lester||.547||.200|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Paul Clemens||1.044||.352||Rich Hill||.536||.188|
|James Shields||.945||.299||Jose Fernandez||.555||.207|
|Josh Tomlin||.874||.306||Julio Teheran||.581||.218|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Jedd Gyorko||Jorge De La Rosa||22||4.13|
|Salvador Perez||Josh Tomlin||23||3.26|
|J.D. Martinez||Hector Santiago||15||3.13|
- If you’re a fan of BvP, tonight is certainly a good night for it. We start off with Jedd Gyorko taking on Jorge De La Rosa. Gyorko has gone 14-22 with five doubles, a home run, five RBI and six walks.
- This next one features Salvador Perez taking on Josh Tomlin. Perez has gone 14-23 with seven doubles, a home run and six RBI.
- Finally we have J.D. Martinez facing Hector Santiago. Martinez has gone 6-15 with a double, two home runs and four RBI.
Pitcher to Build Around
Julio Teheran – ATL vs NYM – $10,300 I like this price a lot for Teheran tonight as he faces the Mets for the fourth time this season. With two lack luster starts under his belt lately (one of them coming against the Mets) I think this is a great spot to get Teheran relatively low owned. The Mets haven’t been a good team at home this season, owning a .311 wOBA with a .411 SLG, a .311 OBP and a 21.5 K%. While his last start against the Mets was nothing special, he’s blanked this team in 17 innings prior with a 14:0 K:BB ratio. I’m chalking that start up to a bad night, as Teheran induced only six swinging strikes after grabbing at least 10 in his prior five starts. With so many big names at the top of the pitching list, I’m hoping Teheran is forgotten about.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Charlie Blackmon – COL vs. STL (Adam Wainwright) – $5,500 – I always feel like I’m cheating a bit when I grab a batter at Coors Field to target tonight because, well, you probably knew that already. However, I can’t stress what a good matchup this is for Blackmon against Wainwright. Blackmon is averaging 13.6 FPPG over his last 10 games as he’s gone 16-43 with three doubles, two triples, four home runs with seven RBI. With how bad Wainwright is on the road, allowing a .355 wOBA against lefties, Blackmon in the leadoff spot is where I want my salary going tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Travis Jankowski – SDP vs. ARZ (Archie Bradley) – $3,500 – If kryptonite had a form in baseball, it would be left-handed batters for Archie Bradley. Owning a .388 wOBA against them on the road with a .496 SLG certainly gives off that impression right? Jankowski is a great, cheap option at the top of the Padres lineup that has stolen 26 bases off right-handed pitchers along with a .324 wOBA and a .363 OBP. Not too shabby for someone that will only run you $3,500.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.