Tonight features a VERY short slate of games, as only three will be played. I’ll do my best to steer you in the right direction. As always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

NYM (-180) vs MIA– Jacob deGrom – deGrom is the not so shocking favorite here with the Mets. The Marlins’ lineup is feeling awfully week lately, as injuries are ravaging their starting nine. Marcell Ozuna was the latest victim last night, exiting the game with a sore wrist after attempting to make a diving catch. If he sits tonight, the Marlins will be without he and Giancarlo Stanton, who was lost for the season last month. This has to make deGrom one of the top options against a team that owns a .313 wOBA against righties with a .326 OBP and a .398 SLG. They are a very tough team to strikeout, owning a 16.9 K%, but the options tonight are very limited. For what it’s worth, deGrom has faced this team twice already with mixed results, allowing seven total runs in 10.2 innings, but he does own a 10.1 K/9 against them.

Highest Totals

CHW vs. MIN – 8.5 runs – – I would hardly classify this as “high scoring game,” but on a night where the other two games are projected at 7.5 runs, the White Sox and Twins get the nod here. Jose Quintana and Ervin Santana take the mound in this game, and both of them have been pitching extremely well as of late. Besides his last start against the Blue Jays, Santana has averaged at least 20 fantasy points in five straight starts, peaking at 30.8 against the Royals. Santana has been fantastic in the second half of the season, owning a 2.65 ERA to go with a .260 wOBA, a .322 SLG and a 7.4 K/9. It’s hard to feel good about the White Sox in this spot, as they own just a .312 wOBA against righties with a .312 OBP and a .410 SLG. Santana has faced the White Sox three times already this season and is only averaging 13.7 FPPG with nine runs allowed in 16.1 innings with a 15:6 K:BB ratio.

Jose Quintana is facing the Twins for the fifth time this season where he’s had plenty of success. Quintana has allowed seven runs in 26.2 innings with a 27:6 K:BB ratio, good for an average of 22.7 FPPG. Quintana has been solid this entire season, even after the early season buzz about him died down. He’s pitched at least six innings dating all the way back to June 22nd, as he’s been such a workhorse for the White Sox. The Twins have been decent against left-handed pitchers this season, but I think it’s fair to say that Quintana has had the Twins number this season.

Weather Concerns

Looks to be no weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • *Target Field – CHW vs MIN * – Target Field has hardly made our list this season as a favorable ballpark, as it’s currently ranked 14th overall. However, with the short slate, it gets the nod for number one tonight. Coming into this game, singles, doubles and triples get the nod here.
  • Wrigley Field – SFG vs CHC – Wrigley checks in as the worst of the three ballparks tonight.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Jose Urena.878.317Jose Quintana.561.214
Jeff Samardzija.796.271Mike Montgomery.592.196
Ervin Santana.633.238Jacob deGrom.625.241

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jacob deGrom.740.267Jeff Samardzija.665.230
Ervin Santana.726.257Jose Quintana.679.242
Mike Mongtomery.687.246Jose Urena.680.227

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Justin MorneauErvin Santana322.46
Joe MauerJose Quintana341.94

  • The BvP for tonight is quite unimpressive, but that’s to be expected on a three game slate. Justin Morneau kicks us off with his numbers against Ervin Santana, as he’s 7-32 with a double, four home runs, 10 RBIs and four walks.
  • Our last BvP for tonight will feature Joe Mauer taking on Jose Quintana. Mauer is 11-34 with two home runs, five RBIs and three walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Quintana – CHW vs MIN – $10,700 – Like I said, I’m really not trying to get cute tonight, as everyone is going to be hard pressed to find some value/sneaky plays. I think going with Quintana as your SP1 makes the most sense as his dominance over the Twins this season has been well documented. As I mentioned earlier, Quintana will be facing the Twins for the fifth time this season, where he’s averaging 22.7 FPPG and owning a sensational 27:6 K:BB ratio.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. SFG (Jeff Samardzija) – $5,100 – I had Rizzo in this spot last night and he ended up being quite the disappointment. Scoring just 4 fantasy points when you cost upwards of $5,000 certainly isn’t going to get the job done. I do like this matchup a lot for him again tonight, as he takes on Jeff Samardzija at home. When Samardzija is facing left-handed batters on the road, he’s allowing a .374 wOBA with a .556 SLG with nine of his 22 total home runs allowed.

Save Big by Drafting…

James Loney – NYM vs. MIA (Jose Urena) – $2,900 – Loney is a really cheap option at first base tonight. He owns a .312 wOBA against righties at home this season. Believe me, it’s nothing great, but if you’re trying to grab a cheap value play tonight, Loney is an option. For what it’s worth, Urena is allowing a .360 wOBA to lefties on the season.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.