A 10-game slate will kick off our MLB week on this Monday night. Tonight features VERY deep pitching options that will make grabbing quality hitters in good spots tough to come by. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

 

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

NYM (-255) vs. ATL – Noah Syndergaard- The Mets and Thor are tabbed as the heavy favorite as they take on the Braves at Citi Field. Thor has some impressive numbers on the year, only allowing a .258 wOBA with a .328 SLG and a .270 OBP. He’s also in a nice stretch of games after a bit of a rough month of August. Over his last five outings, Syndergaard is averaging 26.5 FPPG, allowing no more than two runs in any start. Nonetheless, we can’t discount that the Braves have been one of the best hitting clubs since the All-Star Break – since the break, the Braves own a .345 wOBA, which is behind only the Rockies and Red Sox! Their .351 OBP leads the league, which is amazing to compare to where they were in the first half. At the end of the day, I think Thor has been consistent enough where he’s still a viable option tonight, but I would just be a bit cautious about going all-in on him tonight.

 


Biggest Over/Under

STL vs. COL –11.5 runs – 11.5 runs projected at Coors Field tonight, and I’m a bit surprised by that since Carlos Martinez and Tyler Anderson are on the hill. So is it worth the exposure tonight or not? Martinez has been stumbling a bit as of late, which is what he seems to do. He’s a very peaks and valley type pitcher. Personally, he’s a bit expensive for a Coors Field game at $8,300. Against right-handed pitching overall this season, the Rockies own a .349 wOBA with a .345 OBP and a .473 SLG. I think it’s worth getting some exposure in with the Rockies, but this isn’t a slam-dunk like some starts. Overall, Martinez has been good this season as his overall numbers show, but he’s certainly been trending in the wrong direction.

The interesting aspect of this game is Anderson against the Cardinals. They haven’t exactly crushed left-handed pitching this season, owning a .317 wOBA with a .319 OBP, and a .412 SLG. Anderson has yet to face the Cards this season, but he’s pitched well at Coors. Holding a .310 wOBA at home with a .406 SLG, Anderson is once again an intriguing option at just $6,900. With a respectable 7.7 K/9 at Coors this season, he could be a sneaky option, as the Cardinals own a 21.7 K% against lefties.


Weather Concerns

ATL vs. NYM (Citi Field) – A small chance of rain to open up this game tonight, but it dies off quickly. I wouldn’t be concerned here.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – STL vs COL  As always, Coors Field leads the way as the most favorable ballpark for hitters. Coming into tonight, all offensive categories get the nod.
  • Globe Life Park – LAA vs TEX – The Rangers host the Angels tonight, and Globe Life Park checks in as our number two ballpark. Like Coors, all offensive categories are favored.
  • Dodger Stadium – SFG vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is at the bottom of our list for favorable ballparks tonight. As of today, no category is favorable for hitters.
  • Marlins Park – WAS vs MIA – The Nationals visit Marlins Park with it’s unfavorable stats for hitters. Coming into tonight, we have a whopping zero categories positive for hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Aaron Blair1.054.333Clayton Kershaw.339.149
Braden Shipley.880.258Martin Perez.550.180
Jason Hammel.813.246Madison Bumgarner.573.197

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Braden Shipley.981.357Carlos Martinez.522.203
Aaron Blair.853.296Clayton Kershaw.525.198
Clayton Richard.822.314Noah Syndergaard.591.230

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Mark TrumboRick Porcello222.45
Carlos RuizMadison Bumgarner171.94

  • With the amount of quality pitching going tonight, I was not the least bit surprised that the BvP selections were few and far between. Mark Trumbo makes the list tonight with his 7-22 showing off of Rick Porcello with three home runs and six RBI.
  • The final one for today is Carlos Ruiz taking on Madison Bumgarner. This certainly isn’t anything worthwhile, but he’s still gone 6-17 with two doubles, a home run and two RBI.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs SFG – $12,600 Tonight is one of those nights where I think it’s the wrong time to get “cute” with your pitching. Sure, you can grab someone like Tyler Anderson and potentially be in a decent spot. However, trying to catch up to the points Kershaw, Bumgarner and Syndergaard could put up could really set you back in terms of fantasy points. On paper, the biggest gripe about facing this Giants team is that they don’t strike out enough. Well, don’t tell that to Kershaw who owns a 9.4 K/9 against them in three starts this season. At AT&T Park and averaging 28.9 fantasy points per starts against them, Kershaw should be your guy tonight.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Rougned Odor – TEX vs. LAA (Jhoulys Chacin) – $4,800 – Hitting is going to be tough to come by tonight if you’re spending big at pitching. Odor is still a bit expensive, but I love this spot for him tonight against Chacin. On the road, left-handed batters have been lighting up Chacin, raking to the tune of a .404 wOBA, a .547 SLG and blasting 7 homeruns. On the flip-side, Odor has a .368 wOBA against righties at home with a .565 SLG with 12 of his 31 home runs coming in that split.


Save Big by Drafting…

Joey Wendle – OAK vs. HOU (Brad Peacock) – $2,600 – Two second baseman tonight, what is this nonsense?! If you want to really save some money tonight, look no further than Joey Wendle. At an insanely low price tag of $2,600, Wendle has been batting leadoff for the A’s for the majority of the month. Over the month, he’s batting .321 with a home run, nine RBI and two stolen bases in 16 games. He faces Brad Peacock, who has only thrown 16.2 innings this season, but allows a career .358 wOBA against lefties with a .357 OBP.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.