With 14 games being played tonight, we have plenty of baseball information to go over. I’ll get you set for this huge slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-235) vs. ATL – Max Scherzer – Scherzer takes on the Braves for the fifth time this season. In those starts, Scherzer has gone 26.1 innings allowing 12 runs on 22 hits with a 24:10 K:BB ratio. Add those numbers up and that comes down averaging 19 FPPG with a 4.11 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP. Not exactly the stellar numbers you’d expect or want from a pitcher who’s going to run you for a price of $13,700. The lack of strikeouts is the main concern her. Scherzer owns just an 8.2 K/9 against the Braves this season, which normally isn’t terrible, but not for a pitcher of his price tag. All in all, I think Scherzer is a candidate to be faded tonight simply because I don’t think he’s worth the price in this matchup.

Highest Totals

SDP vs. COL – 12 runs – Christian Friedrich and Tyler Chatwood are set to do battle in this matchup at Coors Field for the second time this season. In their first series together back in April, these teams averaged for a whopping 15 runs per game. Friedrich has been decent on the road this season, allowing a .315 wOBA with a .384 SLG and a .340 OBP. He’s coming off a stellar start against the Rockies at Petco Park, where he shut them out for seven innings allowing just two hits with a 10:1 K:BB ratio. Surprisingly enough, he has pitched well against the Rockies at Coors this season as well, shutting them out for six innings again with just two hits allowed and a 9:3 K:BB ratio.

As for Chatwood, he faces these Padres for the fourth time this season where he’s also had very good success. In 21.1 innings, he allowed just four runs on 14 hits with a 14:7 K:BB ratio. Most of the damage was done at Coors Field, where Chatwood allowed three of the four runs. For pitchers that have been average at best this season, this is a tougher Coors game to gauge tonight.

Weather Concerns

PIT vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – We could see some thunderstorms pop up in the middle of this game. The chances seem to be fairly low, but it’s most certainly something to watch, as we get closer to first pitch.

CHW vs. KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – This game looks to have the highest potential of a disruption, as storms start rolling in an hour before game time. The chance of rain is present all throughout the night, so if it starts, they may not be able to finish this one up.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – SDP vs COL – With Coors Field back in our lives, of course you know the deal. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – CHW vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium is home to our second most favored ballpark of the night. Coming into this game, every category except home runs gets the nod here.
  • Citizen Bank Park – MIA vs PHI – The Marlins and Phillies start their weekend series tonight as they are hosted at Citizen Bank Park. Home runs and triples get the nod here.
  • LAA Stadium – TOR vs LAA – It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Angels Stadium on this list. Home runs are the only category that is favored towards hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Ubaldo Jimenez.930.307Chris Sale.589.195
Luke Weaver.899.304Michael Fulmer.607.211
Jered Weaver.857.298Cole Hamels.611.211

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios1.129.348Max Scherzer.452.146
Robert Stephenson.983.324Kenta Maeda.582.216
Adam Morgan.918.307Corey Kluber.604.208

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Miguel CabreraCorey Kluber422.92
Nelson CruzCollin McHugh152.53
Eric HosmerChris Sale452.11

  • The BvP for Cabrera taking on Kluber is crazy in my opinion. He’s gone 20-42 against Kluber with two doubles, five home runs and 10 RBIs.
  • Next we have Nelson Cruz taking on Collin McHugh. Cruz has gone 6-15 with two home runs and three RBIs.
  • And finally, we have Eric Hosmer who has hit Chris Sale pretty well. Hosmer is 18-45 with a double, three home runs and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – CHW vs KCR – $12,600 – If they can get this game in, yes, give me lot’s of Chris Sale tonight. He’s pitched very well against this Royals team this season. In four starts, Sale has gone 28 innings, allowing 12 runs on 33 hits with a 34:5 K:BB ratio. His last start against them was just pure domination, as he induced a season high 25 swings and misses on his way to 12 strikeouts in eight innings. He’s a tad bit expensive tonight, but I like some of the mid-tier guys like Matt Moore and Tom Koehler and Luje Weaver to help ease the burden.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Joey Votto – CIN vs. PIT (Ryan Vogelsong) – $5,300 – I’m sure you’ve heard through the grape vine that Votto has been absolutely mashing post All-Star break. If you haven’t, let me get you up to speed. In that span, Votto owns a .477 wOBA with a .655 SLG and a ridiculous .504 OBP. Hitting right-handed pitchers very well at home this season, this feels like such a great spot for Votto to pounce on Vogelsong and his .366 wOBA against left-handed bats. He’s pricey, but no one has mashed as well as Votto has in the second half of the season that isn’t named Brian Dozier.

Save Big by Drafting…

Seth Smith – SEA vs. HOU (Collin McHugh) – $3,300 – Smith is always dwelling near the bottom of the barrel in terms of salary. Smith is taking on McHugh, who is allowing a .383 wOBA to lefties on the road with a .517 SLG with six home runs. Likewise, Smith has been raking in these situations, owning a .397 wOBA against righties at home with a .539 SLG with 10 of his 14 home runs. At $3,300, Smith could be a real bargain tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.