Another full slate of baseball is headed your way on a Wednesday night! Some of us are quite a bit richer from the Millionaire Maker last night, others, not so much. But not to worry, we have plenty of action tonight to get your bankroll up once again. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
David Price vs. Atlanta Braves (-270) – This matchup almost seems unfair. It’s almost like when you have to face Mike Tyson in the Nintendo game Punch-Out. One punch and you’re down. Price going against the lowly batting Braves feels like the same thing. It’s been no secret that Price has been dominant since coming over to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. During that time, Price owns a 2.59 ERA with an overall wOBA against him slotted at .264. When you look over at the Braves and what they’ve done in the second half of the season, they check in with a .287 wOBA during that time, which is dead last in the league. They still make it tough on opposing pitchers to strike them out, with an 18.9 K%. Which doesn’t shake me off Price as much as it normally would with any other pitcher. I think this is going to be a dominating start for Price, one that might not have a lot of strikeouts, I think five would be a fair guess, but Price should be in cruise control with this one.
Bartolo Colon vs. Miami Marlins (-223) – Hopefully you guys read my Cheat Sheet yesterday and stayed off of Jacob deGrom. Judging by my Twitter feed, I don’t think many of you listened. Meanwhile, I’m over here reaping the benefits of my Marlins stack. Anyways, the Marlins are a tough team to predict this season. On one point of view, they truly are one of the worst hitting ball clubs in the league. During the second half of the season, they own a .296 wOBA, which is the third worst in the majors, however, like the Braves, they’re also a tough team to strikeout. Owning just a 16.8 K%, I’m not joking when I say they truly are a tough club to induce the swings and misses. Colon, in his last start against the Marlins, saw much more success then deGrom did. Colon went nine innings giving up no runs on nine hits while only striking out two. Just going to show how important those strikeouts are to the scoring on DraftKings, here we have Colon throwing a complete game shutout against the Marlins, and still scoring under 30 points. Instead, he earned 27.9. I’d never complain about such a score, but the strikeouts are so crucial that unless you’re going to have a clean game like Colon, the points just aren’t going to come. Priced at $8,100, I expect Colon to be a very popular pick tonight.
Gio Gonzalez vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)- Stephen Strasburg worked mighty fine against the Phillies last night, so here’s hoping we go 2-2 against the Phillies. In his last start, Gonzalez struggled a bit against, you guessed it, the Marlins. Pitching only five innings, Gonzalez allowed one run on four hits but his K:BB ratio wasn’t looking too hot at 4:3. Gonzalez seems to keep alternating bad starts with good ones, so technically he’s due for the good one tonight. Even though that mean absolutely NOTHING, the Phillies at least give him a fighting chance to grab that good start. I feel like every time we check the Phillies wOBA in the second half of the season, it’s fallen further and further down the ranks. Today, they check in at .318, which is good for 20th in the league. Gonzalez is super enticing tonight because of his price tag at just $8000. With the Phillies really struggling at the plate and striking out at a good clip with a 22.3 K%, I think Gonzalez certainly deserves a hard look tonight.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles 9.5 Over/Under – Henry Owens and Michael Wright take the mound for the Red Sox and Orioles respectively tonight. Both pitchers have been seeing their fair share of struggles, as neither pitcher owns a wOBA lower than .326. Playing in the always hitter friendly Camden Yards, this should be a great game to target for offense. The Red Sox still remain one of the best hitting clubs in the second half of the season, owning a .338 wOBA, which is good four fourth in the season. Wright really struggles against left handed batters, allowing a .374 wOBA against them. His opponent tonight, Henry Owens, also is struggling against lefties, allowing a .436 wOBA against them. If you haven’t figured this one out, lefties will be a great target in this matchup in what should be a high scoring affair.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Dallas Keuchel vs. Texas Rangers- The answer is, yes, Keuchel is pitching tonight. His dominance against lefties have been very well documented throughout the season as well as in this article. Coming into tonight, he’s only allowing a .178 wOBA to them
Jake Arrieta vs. Pittsburgh Pirates- At this point, it’s insane to even think Arrieta might have a bad start. He’s been everything the Cubs could ever ask for and more. For his start against the Pirates, Arrieta owns a .210 wOBA against lefties.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jaime Garcia vs. Milwaukee Brewers- Garcia continues to quietly shut down the National League without much fanfare. Garcia owns a .231 wOBA against righties this season.
Dallas Keuchel vs. Texas Rangers- As if completely dominating left handed batters wasn’t enough, Keuchel is heading into the same realm with right handed batters. On the year, Keuchel owns a .265 wOBA against them.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Mike Lorenzen vs. San Francisco Giants- It’s crazy to think that we have three pitchers who have wOBA averages in the 400’s tonight, with one of them not even making the list. File that under the mind boggling section of the day. Lorenzen certainly wouldn’t avoid the list today, as he owns a .439 against lefties.
Henry Owens vs. Baltimore Orioles- It might be a bit unfair to jump all over the rookie, who is touted as one of the up and coming prospects in the Red Sox system. But regardless, the numbers are the numbers. Owens has earned himself a .436 wOBA against lefties in his first taste of the majors.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Martin Perez vs. Houston Astros – I didn’t look at his last start, but Perez, who was always one of the best against lefties this season, not looking so hot anymore. Now both of his splits are looking quite ugly, with the worst being against righties with a .363 wOBA.
Adam Morgan vs. Washington Nationals- It must be tough to be a left handed pitcher in baseball. Just ask our buddy Adam Morgan. Entering his start tonight, Morgan owns a .357 wOBA against righties.
Bryce Harper OF – To be fair, when ISN’T Bryce Harper hitting the ball well? He’s been great this entire season, however, lately he’s really been crushing the ball. Harper comes into tonight 9-20 with five home runs, seven RBIs, and seven runs scored.
Josh Reddick OF ($4300) – The Oakland A’s really put a pounding on the Chicago White Sox last night, scoring 17 runs on the night. Reddick was a big part of that offensive outburst, as he continues to swing a hot bat lately. Reddick is 9-24 with three home runs, seven RBIs, eight runs scored and a stolen base sprinkled in for good measure.
Todd Frazier 3B ($4100) – It really seems as if Frazier has fallen off the planet in the second half of the season. Granted, the Reds are out of the playoff picture, but Frazier was a name that would come up often in the first half of the year. For what it’s worth, Frazier is starting to heat up again. He’s 7-24 with four home runs, seven RBIs, eight runs scored and a stolen base for good measure.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Jesus Montero vs. Jered Weaver- This one is certainly a small sample, but wow. Montero, when he gets a hit off Weaver, it’s been a big one. Montero comes into tonight 5-1o against Weaver with four extra base hits, all of them going for home runs, and a 2.200 OPS. Weaver might just be better off giving him an intentional walk each at bat.
Adrian Gonzalez vs. Jorge de la Rosa- These two have seen each other many many times in their careers. Gonzalez has seemingly gotten the best of de la Rosa. Gonzalez is 17-48 with nine extra base hits, three of them being home runs, and a 1.115 OPS.
Darin Ruf vs. Gio Gonzalez- If you’re a BvP believer, this could be a sneak play on the night. Ruf comes into tonight hitting Gonzalez quite well. Ruf has gone 7-20 against Gonzalez with four extra base hits, two of them being home runs and a 1.212 OPS.
Two games to watch for the potential of rain:
Twins at Tigers
Reds at Giants
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Jaime Garica($9100) -He’s been flying under the radar for too long! It’s time to expose Garcia for the person he really is, a damn good pitcher. Don’t bother looking at this previous start, that one doesn’t matter. Well ok, we can divulge in it a little bit. Garcia certainly didn’t have his best stuff against the Reds, which saw him go four innings giving up six runs on six hits with a 2:4 K:BB ratio. However, in his start tonight, he faces a Brewers team that does not hit lefties well at all. On the season, the Brewers own a .297 wOBA against lefties with a strikeout percentage of 21.7, good for 11th in the league. On a night with a bunch of big names on the board like Arrieta, Price, Archer and Keuchel, I can see Garcia being looked over on a night where he could hold a good amount of value. Keep your big name pitchers, I’m rolling with Garcia.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Chris Davis ($5100) –A good spot for Chris Davis here tonight, as he faces Red Sox rookie Henry Owens. Although he hasn’t had a ton of exposure at the major league level, Owens .436 wOBA against lefties is one of the worst on the night. It just so happens that Davis is a left handed batter and hits left handed pitching quite well. Davis comes into tonight with a .382 wOBA against left handed pitching with an ISO of .231. In a game that is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night, I think Davis is in a perfect spot to contribute tonight.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Ender Inciarte ($3400) –I always feel like Inciarte is vastly under priced, but that’s certainly not something I’m going to complain about. Checking in at $3400, Inciarte owns a .344 wOBA against right handed pitching, as he faces Andrew Cashner tonight. Cashner is brutal against lefties, owning a .380 wOBA when facing them this season. Cashner hasn’t looked sharp this season, and with some cheap money for Inciarte, I think it could be a nice salary saving grab.