A good eight game slate is on tap for tonight as we head towards the weekend. With only two pitchers costing you upwards of $10K, we should have some nice wiggle room to fill out our roster with strong hitters. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

CHC (-225) vs. MIL – Mike Montgomery – If you’re looking for Montgomery, he’s all the way down in price, checking in at just $4,700 on the night. The left-handed pitcher has seen some struggles since his trade to the Cubs, owning a .351 wOBA in the second half of the season with a .438 SLG with five home runs allowed. The Brewers have hit left-handed pitching well this season, earning a .345 wOBA with a .454 SLG and a .352 OBP. As always, the strikeout potential is alive and well with Montgomery, as the Brewers have the highest K% in the league at 26.6%. Since coming over to the NL, Montgomery has seen his K/9 on the season go from 7.4 all the way up to 10.1.

Highest Total

LAD vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – The Dodgers and D-Backs are involved in the highest projected run total of the night at 9.5 runs. Archie Bradley has had a real rough go of it at Chase Field this season, allowing a .368 wOBA with a .517 SLG and a .358 OBP. Let’s not forget about the home runs, as he’s allowed 12 of his 16 total at home. Believe it or not, the Dodgers have the third best team wOBA against right-handed pitching at .340, to go along with their .456 SLG and .340 OBP. I wouldn’t consider the Dodgers a “powerful” team, but they have hit 87 home runs on the road, which ranks them 12th in the league.

Now we get to the ageless wonder known as Rich Hill. He’s been fantastic since returning from his blister issue, but I keep hearing little tidbits here and there (Twitter) about how it’s still somewhat of an issue. For example, he was CRUISING in his last start against the Marlins but was pulled as a precaution. HE HAD A PERFECT GAME GOING THROUGH SEVEN INNINGS AT THE TIME! If that’s any indication on how the Dodgers are going to treat him the rest of the way, I have ZERO interest in taking him at $12K tonight. I do also think it’s worth nothing that the D-Backs do own the highest wOBA, SLG and OPS against lefties in the league. With this game at Chase Field, I think Hill may have some struggles.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – LAD vs ARZ – Home of the highest projected run total of the night, Chase Field has a favorable rating in every offensive category.
  • Fenway Park – NYY vs BOS – A Red Sox/Yankees series is on tap in the favorable Fenway Park. Coming into tonight, every category except walks gets the nod here.
  • Citizens Bank Park – PIT vs PHI – The Pirates and Phillies continue to do battle tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Home runs and triples get the nod here.
  • Wrigley Field – MIL vs CHC – Wrigley Field checks in as our second least favorable ballparks for hitters. Coming into this matchup against the Brewers, only walks are favored.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Archie Bradley.926.311Rich Hill.390.163
Chad Kuhl.846.281Mike Montgomery.610.196
Yovani Gallardo.839.282Masahiro Tanaka.627.232

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Daniel Mengden.810.281Rich Hill.529.187
Yovani Gallardo.801.277Johnny Cueto.598.219
Edinson Volquez.770.286Masahiro Tanaka.636.240

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Kole CalhounJ.A. Happ104.5
Corey DickersonYovani Gallardo112.9
Jorge SolerJimmy Nelson202.75

  • The BvP for tonight isn’t fantastic, but we have a few decent ones to show. We start off with Calhoun taking on Happ. Calhoun has gone 5-10 with a double, two home runs and three RBI.
  • Next we have Dickerson taking on Gallardo. Dickerson has gone 5-11 with a double, a home run and four RBI.
  • Finally we have a decent sample size with Soler taking on Nelson. Soler is 7-20 off Nelson with three doubles, two home runs and six RBI.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Johnny Cueto – SFG vs STL – $10,800 – Two things I really like off the bat with Cueto. First, his price tag at $10,800 isn’t prohibitive. Second, the park shift is certainly in favor of Cueto, as he’s been fantastic at AT&T Park this season. Over the past 30 days, the Cardinals own the fourth highest K% in the league at 24.2%. The Cardinals have also been struggling to get on base, owning just a .307 OBP over that same time span, which ranks 27th in the league.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Manny Machado – BAL vs. TBR (Blake Snell) – $4,300 – I’m not really sure what I’m missing here, but Machado at $4,300 feels way too cheap. He faces off against Blake Snell tonight, who’s been solid, but not so much on the road. Facing right-handed batters away from Tropicana, Snell owns a .389 wOBA with a .505 SLG and a .400 OBP. Snell hasn’t allowed a ton of home runs with just five on the season, but three of them have come on the road against righties. With Machado owning a .398 wOBA against lefties at Camden Yards with a .548 SLG, I love this spot for him at a discounted price.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chase Utley – LAD vs. ARZ (Archie Bradley) – $3,600 – Utley has been pretty mediocre since the All-Star break. However, I do like this spot for him batting lead-off because of how poorly Bradley pitching against left-handed batters. If Utley can stay true to his numbers, he’s been solid against right-handed pitching on the road, owning a .343 wOBA with a .447 SLG and seven of his 12 home runs. With a $3,600 price tag, he’s cheap enough to be worth a flier in what should be a high-scoring game.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.