We have a full 15 games slate on tap today, which means plenty of opportunities to boost that bankroll with some baseball. I’ll be here to help you build successful lineups for tonight! Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins(-250) – Vegas tends to forget quickly. That’s my belief. The last time deGrom faced the Marlins, he was one of the favorites like he is tonight. How did that start go? Not very well. deGrom only managed to score 10.1 points going six innings giving up three runs on nine hits while striking out four. A very underwhelming start to say the least. It’s something strange about the Marlins. They seem to be able to handle teams aces quite well. Aside from deGrom, they’ve given Max Scherzer trouble, Noah Syndergaard, just to name a couple. On paper, it should be an easy start for deGrom. The Marlins own a .298 wOBA post All Star break with an ISO of .116. Their wOBA is ranked 28th in the league while their ISO is 29th. I mean, you truly have one of the worst hitting ball clubs in the majors. Of course though, the Marlins remain a tough team to strike out, as they only have a 16.8 K% since the All Star break, which is the second best in the league. That obviously takes a hit to deGrom tonight, since his K/9 stands at 9.4. It would be extremely tough for him to reach that number tonight, which makes him a less attractive start for me. At a high price of $11,900, I would honestly have to wonder if deGrom is going to be worth it tonight or not, which sounds absolutely insane. With only four strikeouts last time out, you have to wonder if that about where deGrom will land again tonight. Certainly not enough for someone that’s going to cost you around $12,000.
Brett Anderson vs. Colorado Rockies (-250) – It’s honestly getting crazy how much Vegas is going against the Rockies on a daily basis. I get that they’re not the same offensive club they were in the first half, but damn, it’s kind of harsh! Regardless, Anderson is a leftie, which is basically the kryptonite of the Rockies existence this season. The Rockies own a .289 wOBA against lefties this season with an extremely high strikeout percentage of 23.2%, which ranks 3rd in the league. In a bit of a surprise last night, Clayton Kershaw faced them and only managed to get five strikeouts on the night, in what was otherwise a stellar start for Kershaw. It was quite disappointing for someone I thought was going to reach the double digits in strikeouts. Hey, half way is progress, right? Anderson is certainly no Kershaw, as he owns a 5.9 K/9 on the season. I don’t think it would be out of the realm to say that Anderson could match his K/9 on the night, which adds to potential as a steal tonight at just $6,500.
Stephen Strasburg vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-220)- Well, I think we hit all three of the teams that Vegas loves to go against. The Marlins, Rockies and now the Phillies. Although, it’s hard to blame them for the Phillies pick, as Strasburg takes the mound tonight. After a very underwhelming start against the Marlins (see! again!) Strasburg threw an encouraging start against the Mets. Strasburg went seven innings giving up three runs on five hits while striking out 13 and walking only one. The three runs were completely overshadowed by the 13 strikeouts that Strasburg threw, as he really looked to be his old self. The Phillies are another high strike out team, with the 5th highest K% in the league since the All Star break at 22.1%. What makes this start so enticing for me is how low Strasburg is priced. At only $9800, you’re committing robbery here. Strasburg should not be this low, but thank you DraftKings for deciding this. Strasburg will be in all of my lineups tonight, as we hope for another high strikeout performance.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins 8.5 Over/Under – These two teams once again come in as one of the highest projected scoring games of the night. This one features two pitchers that could provide some good offense to their opposing team, as they both own wOBA splits of at least .307. Even though both teams have been very underwhelming offensively, Alfredo Simon for the Tigers and Phil Hughes for the Twins, don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of all their opponents. If anything, they look forward to a potential slugfest with these two on the mound. Both pitchers combined have given up 49 home runs on the season, with Hughes leading the charge in that one with 28. I think this will be a good game to target as both pitchers struggle against both types of hitters and are always good for a couple of home runs a game. Have some exposure to this one.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Josh Tomlin vs. Kansas City Royals- Tomlin is trying to do his best Dallas Keuchel impression with how well he’s pitching against lefties this season. Coming into tonight, Tomlin owns a .148 wOBA when facing left handed batters.
Derek Holland vs. Houston Astros- What an odd group to have as the toughest pitchers to face if you’re a left handed batter. Would you have ever guessed it was Tomlin and Holland? I sure wouldn’t. Holland owns a .242 wOBA against lefties.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins- deGrom may be the toughest against righties for tonight’s slate, but I’ll be VERY interested to see how he fares the second time around against the Marlins. Such an unlikely team to knock him around, but they did. Coming into tonight, deGrom owns a .212 wOBA against righties.
Tyson Ross vs. Arizona Diamondbacks- Looking at his splits, Ross really seemed to have turned his season around after a tough start. I’m happy about that because I think Ross is truly a talented pitcher who has some nasty stuff to punch out hitters. Ross enters tonight’s start with a .262 wOBA against righties.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
David Buchanan vs. Washington Nationals- I’m not even kidding, how do the Phillies keep trotting Buchanan out to the mound. He’s been a train wreck this entire season! In his last four starts, he has something like a 22 ERA. How is that ok?! Regardless, Buchanan and his .438 wOBA against lefties will be on the mound tonight.
John Lamb vs. San Francisco Giants- Lamb isn’t much better against lefties. But the thing with him is, he doesn’t own my last name, so I don’t really have a problem with Lamb. His .435 wOBA against lefties is only second worst on the night thanks to Buchanan.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
David Buchanan vs. Washington Nationals- Here he is again. Truly, what are the Phillies hoping for here? What’s the best case scenario? Eights runs in three innings? Nine runs in two? Asking for a friend here. Buchanan comes in with a .447 wOBA against righties.
Aaron Brooks vs. Chicago White Sox – Anyone looks like an ace when they have the Buchanan show to follow. Although, Brooks isn’t much better against righties himself, with a .410 wOBA on the year.
Yoenis Cespedes OF – I know that we all know Cespedes is hitting extremely well, but he just doesn’t stop and keeps running up to the top of this list. Coming into tonight, Cespedes is 8-27 with four home runs, 11 RBIs, and five runs scored.
Ben Revere OF ($3900) – I don’t know what they’re putting in the water in Toronto, but whatever it is, it’s working for guys like Ben Revere. Since his trade to Toronto, Revere looks like a completely different ball player. He enters tonight 10-23 with a home run, four RBIs, six runs scored and three stolen bases.
Brett Gardner 3B ($4400) –Gardner has been flashing his power lately. Gardner is 6-19 with three home runs, eight RBIs, four runs scored and a stolen base. I still to this day think Gardner and Ellsbury lumped together in the lineup takes away from their stolen base potential.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Miguel Cabrera vs. Phil Hughes- I know that I’ve certainly showcased this BvP before, but it’s too good to not do it once again. Cabrera has owned Hughes during his career, and I’m sure he’s looking forward to their matchup tonight. Cabrera is 17-36 against Hughes with 10 extra base hits, five of them being home runs, and a 1.528 OPS. So yeah, that’s pretty good.
Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez- I’m surprised but I’m not surprised with how much success Trout has had against Felix Hernandez in his career. Coming into tonight, Trout is 21-61 with eight extra base hits, three of them being a home run, and a .970 OPS.
Brian McCann vs. Jake Odorizzi – I know the last time these two faced each other I showcased this BvP. Just like the Cabrera one, this one is too good to leave off the article. McCann is 11-17 against Odorizzi with seven extra base hits, three of them being a home run, and a 2.171 OPS.
A full slate of games with clear skies all across the board is a small miracle.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Stephen Strasburg ($9800) -The price, baby! The price for Strasburg is way to good to pass up. $9800 bucks for an elite starter going up against a strike out happy Phillies team. Truly, what else do I need to put in this section? I could end it right now! Just to quickly recap what I went over earlier, the 22.1 K% for the Phillies is one of the highest in the league. Coming off a start where Strasburg struck out 13 Mets, who currently sit near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage at 19.9%, is an impressive feat. The Mets have been one of the best hitting teams in the second half and they’re tough to strikeout. Strasburg made them look bad on both accounts. Now he gets a much easier Phillies team and I think he has the potential to go off tonight. I can’t pass him up.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Miguel Cabrera ($4600) –All of the BvP haters will be getting on me for this one. I’m not just putting Cabrera here because of his numbers against Phil Hughes, although that certainly didn’t hurt my decision. I’m putting Cabrera here because overall, he hits right handed pitching well. On the season, Cabrera has a .410 wOBA against righties with an ISO of .198. So no, those aren’t bad numbers at all! Cabrera has been in a bit of a power drought this season, only hitting 17 home runs on the year, hence the cheaper than normal price. Oh, and in case you were wondering, Hughes allows a .371 wOBA to righties on the season.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Michael Taylor ($3400) – I’m basically looking to get some cheap exposure to David Buchanan. Taylor does not have very attractive overall numbers, as he comes into tonight with a .239 average with 14 home runs 61 RBIs and a .673 OPS. The draw for me here is he’s a cheap source of power going up against someone who given up eight home runs in 52 innings. Taylor has an ISO of .143 against RHP, which again isn’t great, but Buchanan is truly THAT bad. On a night where the Nationals could score a good amount of runs, Taylor may be a forgotten man in the Washington stack.