After two days of full 15-game slates, we drop down to 10 for tonight, after a short four game slate this afternoon. Let’s get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

DET (-171) vs. MIN – Anibal Sanchez – Let me make this perfectly clear, I have almost zero trust in Sanchez as a pitcher. Sanchez has been having a decent second half of the season; I’ll give him that. Owning a .308 wOBA during that span with a .407 SLG and a .309 OBP certainly backs up that notion. Sanchez has faced this Twins team twice already this season and has done fairly well. In those two starts, Sanchez has gone 13 innings allowing six runs on 13 hits with a 12:2 K:BB ratio. However, I’m staying far away from this matchup as Sanchez is always one misstep away from completely imploding.

Highest Totals

BAL vs. BOS – 9.5 runs – It’s interesting to see this game with a 9.5 projected run total with Kevin Gausman and Rick Porcello taking the mound. To be fair, the Orioles only have an implied run total of four, but both pitchers have been pitching well as of late. One aspect to look at is the numbers Gausman has been posting on the road, as they haven’t been pretty. Gausman owns a .354 wOBA on the road compared to his .278 at home. Gausman has also allowed 15 of his 23 home runs in his road starts with 10 of those going to right-handed bats, which Boston is loaded with. The Red Sox have wrecked Gausman this season, tagging him for 11 runs in just nine innings.

With Porcello, he’s been about as consistent as it gets. Since the month of July, Porcello has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 11 of 13 starts and has pitched no less than six innings in all of them. He’s only faced the Orioles once this season at Camden Yards and went six innings allowing five runs on six hits with a 3:3 K:BB ratio. The Orioles offense has been boom-or-bust since the All-Star Break, and it’s hard to pinpoint where they’ll be at on any particular night. With the low run implied total for them tonight, you have to consider Porcello here, as he gets a nice $1,100 price drop from his last start, down to $9,900.


Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – BAL vs BOS – Fenway Park once again gets the nod for our most favorable ballpark on the night. All offensive categories are favored here except walks.
  • Kauffman Stadium – OAK vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight with the A’s in town. Every offensive category gets the nod here except home runs.
  • Minute Maid Park – TEX vs HOU – Minute Maid Park isn’t exactly the ideal spot for hitters to play in. As of tonight, only triples are favored here.
  • Citizens Bank Park – PIT vs PHI – The Pirates and Phillies continue to do battle tonight as they are hosted at Citizens Bank Park. Only home runs and triples get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Jeff Hoffman.991.326Sean Manaea.511.167
Jake Thompson.904.293Derek Holland.583.247
Tim Adleman.851.260Ruby De La Rosa.585.188

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Tyler Duffey.985.324Jose Fernandez.557.204
Josh Tomlin.885.309Julio Teheran.571.217
Anibal Sanchez.854.309Junior Guerra.634.231

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
David OrtizKevin Gausman183.22
Freddie FreemanJose Fernandez202.3
Marcell OzunaJulio Teheran332.12

  • Ortiz hasn’t seen Kevin Gausman all that much, but he’s certainly made it count when he has. Ortiz has gone 8-18 against Gausman with three doubles, two home runs and five RBIs.
  • This BvP isn’t great, but it certainly could be a nice, cheap option at first base. Freeman has gone 7-20 off of Fernandez with a double, two home runs and four RBIs.
  • Finally we have Marcell Ozuna, who is hitting someone that isn’t a left-handed pitcher. Ozuna has gone 14-33 off of Julio Teheran with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Rick Porcello – BOS vs BAL – $9,900 – This start isn’t a slam dunk, as the Orioles offense does worry me a bit. But, as I mentioned, Porcello has been Captain Consistent since the month of July, and his track record shows he should be on that same path tonight. Porcello has been fantastic at Fenway Park this season, averaging 20.7 FPPG in 14 starts while holding opposing hitters to a .280 wOBA with a .365 SLG. Coming into tonight, the Orioles own the fifth highest K% on the road at 23. At $9,900, I think Porcello is a fine play for tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. MIN (Tyler Duffey) – $5,300 – Cabrera is awfully expensive tonight in his matchup against Tyler Duffey, but the numbers show that we could see something good here tonight. First, let’s start with Cabrera hitting at home. At Comerica Park this season against a right-handed pitcher, Cabrera owns a .419 wOBA with a .625 SLG and a 1.016 OPS. Duffey has been whacked by righties all season, with an overall wOBA of .411 with a .612 SLG against them. These numbers do drop a bit on the road, but I think the mix of how well Cabrera hits at home and how poorly Duffey is against righties becomes a perfect storm.

Save Big by Drafting…

George Springer – HOU vs. TEX (Derek Holland) – $3,600 – Springer batting leadoff at just $3,600 screams value to me. It doesn’t hurt that he’s facing a weak right-handed batter in Derek Holland either. On the season, Springer owns a .444 wOBA against lefties at home with a .647 SLG and a 1.071 OPS. Those are some good numbers for someone that is going to cost you just $3,600.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.