MLB Cheat Sheet: September 13th

Wednesday night brings us a 12-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Max Scherzer vs. Atlanta Braves – ($13,400) – Scherzer and the Nationals are massive favorites tonight against the Braves on this 12-game slate. As you’d expect, the Braves own the lowest projected run total on the night at 2.9 runs as they face Scherzer for the fourth time this season. Scherzer has come away with a mixed bag of results against this Braves club, pitching 19.2 innings with seven runs allowed on 12 hits with a K/9 of 10.5.

Highest Total

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – 11 projected runs – These two teams once again own the highest projected run total of the evening with the Mariners the slightest of slight favorites with a 5.6 run projection over the Rangers 5.5. I’m inclined to side with the Mariners on this one against Martin Perez, but he’s surprisingly strung together a solid run of starts as of late. He’s dropped his hard hit rate 11% over his last three starts to 21%, which does worry me a bit. Nonetheless, Perez has struggled at home this season, sporting a .361 wOBA with a .470 SLG and 12 of his 19 home runs.

Weather Concerns

Quite a few games have a slight chance of rain, but nothing looks overly threatening. I’d advise taking a look at the games before lock tonight.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is the most favorable ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Globe Life Park – Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Globe Life Park is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • AT&T Park – L.A. Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants – AT&T Park is our least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Triples are the only offensive category that gets the nod here.
  • Busch Stadium – Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Walks are the only category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Matt Harvey.939.291Jon Lester.574.207
Dinelson Lamet.848.257Lance McCullers.599.230
Kevin Gausman.847.285Chase Anderson.612.215

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jharel Cotton.852.277Max Scherzer.396.215
Martin Perez.843.313Doug Fister.524.176
Patrick Corbin.833.300Dinelson Lamet.525.154

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Nelson CruzMartin Perez143.92
Kyle SeagerMartin Perez382.65
DJ LeMahieuPatrick Corbin342.29

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Ervin Santana – MIN vs. SD – $10,900 – Scherzer is the obvious SP1 for tonight, but the case can certainly be made for Santana against the Padres. This will be the second time he takes on this club, where he posted arguably one of his best starts of the season. Santana pitched a complete game allowing two runs on fours hits with a 9:1 K:BB ratio. For all of the ups and downs Santana has exhibited, he’s excelled in matchups against teams with a high K%. Over his last 10 starts, Santana has had four starts against the Padres, Brewers and White Sox and has a combined 9.2 K/9 in those matchups. All of those teams are in the top-10 in K%, so I have to imagine Santana will be a fantastic option on this slate tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Nolan Arenado – COL vs. ARI – $5,300 – Arenado is quite expensive, but his matchup against a relatively weak lefty has to leave him in serious consideration. On the road against lefties, Arenado sports an insane .531 wOBA with a .843 SLG and a .468 OBP. Corbin at home against righties owns a .341 wOBA with a .443 SLG and a .357 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Neil Walker – MIL vs. PIT – $3,700 – Walker may not be one of the first hitters that come to mind for tonight, but I’m intrigued by his matchup. He’ll take on Tyler Glasnow, who in his short time in the majors this season owns a .433 wOBA against lefties with a .619 SLG with six of his 12 home runs. Walker has been great against righties, owning a .357 wOBA with a .481 SLG and all 13 of his home runs.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.