After a full 15-game slate last night, Tuesday brings us more of the same with all 30 teams in action tonight. Let’s gear up for tonight’s games, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

DET (-181) vs. MIN Matt Boyd gets the start for the Tigers tonight after a stellar performance by Daniel Norris last night. The Twins continue to have their struggles against left-handed pitchers, owning the third highest K% in the league at 24%. When you mix that in with their .325 wOBA with a .324 OBP and a .436 SLG against lefties, you can understand why they’re projected here tonight. In terms of Boyd, he’s faced these Twins twice already this season and his held them to three runs in 12 innings with a K/9 of 10.5. At $7,900, he brings some fantastic value on this slate just like Norris did yesterday.

Editor’s Note: Daniel Norris will not pitch for the Detroit Tigers tonight. Matt Boyd will take the mound.

Norris is fresh off his best start this season, coincidently against this same Twins team. Norris pitched six solid innings allowing two runs on five hits with a 11:2 K:BB ratio. Those 11 strikeouts were a season high for Norris, and he now has 18 in his last two starts in 12 innings. The Twins don’t exactly crush left-handed pitching, owning a .325 wOBA with a .324 OBP and a .436 SLG, but they do strikeout a ton against them with their 24 K%, which ranks fourth in the league. Norris may finally be beginning to see everything “click” at the major league level, as he’s always had good strikeout numbers in the minors. In 14 starts at Triple-A this season, Norris owned a 9.4 K/9 in 73.1 innings.

Highest Totals

COL vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – Jorge De La Rosa will take on Robbie Ray in this one at Chase Field. De La Rosa has been awful on the road this season, owning a .360 wOBA in 58.1 innings. He was lit up against the Diamondbacks his last time out against them, although that game was a Coors Field. De La Rosa allowed five runs on seven hits in just five innings of work with a 2:4 K:BB ratio. The D-Backs own the highest wOBA, SLG, OPS and ISO against left-handed pitching this season, so it’s hard for me to imagine a poor showing from them here. As always, Paul Goldschmidt at home against a left-handed pitcher certainly has to be a consideration and one of the top targets on the night.

Weather Concerns

OAK vs KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – Not a real concern here tonight, as a thunderstorm may pose a slight delay to start the game. However, once that clears out, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the night.

CLE vs CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – This game will be the trouble spot of the night, as the chance of rain and thunderstorms increases as the night progresses. This is certainly worth monitoring as we get closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – BAL vs BOS – With 14 runs scored last night, it’s easy to see why Fenway Park remains our most favorable park for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, every offensive category except walks is favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – OAK vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight with the A’s in town. Every offensive category gets a nod here except home runs.
  • Minute Maid Park – TEX vs HOU – Minute Maid Park isn’t exactly the ideal spot for hitters to play in. As of tonight, only triples are favored here.
  • Citizen Bank Park – PIT vs PHI – The Pirates and Phillies continue to do battle tonight as they are hosted at Citizen Bank Park. Home runs and triples get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
A.J. Griffin.986.293Danny Duffy.447.177
Kyle Gibson.920.338Jose Quintana.574.224
Jorge De La Rosa.834.299Matt Boyd.605.180

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Taijuan Walker.853.306Noah Syndergaard.595.232
Jorge De La Rosa.816.280Drew Pomeranz.634.202
Albert Suarez.816.262A.J. Griffin.643.210

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Mike TroutTaijuan Walker115.63
Josh DonaldsonDrew Smyly193.47
Evan LongoriaMarcus Stroman182.73

  • It’s a small sample size, but the BvP stats for Trout against Walker are absolutely insane. Trout is 9-11 with four doubles, three home runs and six RBIs.
  • Next up we have Josh Donaldson taking on Drew Smyly. Donaldson has gone 9-19 with three doubles, three home runs and four RBIs.
  • Finally we have Evan Longoria taking on Marcus Stroman. Longoria has gone 8-19 with two doubles, two home runs and four RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Matt Boyd – DET vs MIN – $7,900 – As I eluded to earlier, the value for Boyd coupled with his matchup is a good one. With two fantastic outings against this Twins team already, Boyd at $7,900 feels like a real bargain. Boyd has been looking great as of late and has gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts. The home runs can be an issue for him at times, as he’s allowing 1.5 per nine innings coming into tonight. It’s certainly not terrible, but with a name like the red hot Brian Dozier on the opposing time, it does make you ponder. Nonetheless, Boyd is in a great spot with some great value in my opinion.

Editor’s Note: Daniel Norris will not pitch for the Detroit Tigers tonight. Matt Boyd will take the mound.

Daniel Norris – DET vs MIN – $6,700 – I think Norris brings us some of the best value on this slate, thus making him one of my top targets. As I mentioned earlier, Norris possesses some fantastic strikeout upside that he’s shown in the minors. With the Twins owning one of the highest K% in the league against left-handed pitching, Norris could easily return value on his bargain $6,700 price tag tonight and then some. Pairing Norris with someone like Robbie Ray (another pitcher I love for his strikeout potential compared to his price) would save you a ton of salary tonight to really load up on some bats

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – $5,300 – I feel like not showcasing Goldy in this spot is just wrong. He’s completely crushed left-handed pitching at home this season, and I can’t imagine tonight will be any different. In these spots, Goldy owns a .521 wOBA with a .735 SLG and .547 OBP. With how poorly, De La Rosa is pitching on the road, this spot is a prime position.

Save Big by Drafting…

Matt Adams – STL vs. CHC (Jason Hammel) – $3,500 – Injuries have plagued the 2016 season for Matt Adams and thus, no one really gives him the time of day when it comes to a fantasy perspective. However, I think this is a sneaky spot for him against Jason Hammel. Besides the fact that Hammel has been struggling big time lately, his road numbers against lefties are what are drawing me to this spot. Hammel owns a .363 wOBA with a .514 SLG with seven home runs allowed. Adams has hit the majority of his home runs at home against right-handed pitchers to go with a .369 wOBA and a .557 SLG.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.