MLB Cheat Sheet: September 12th

You can find all the information you need below to start constructing your team for Tuesday’s monster 14-game slate.

GAME NOTES

Pitcher Favorite

Corey Kluber vs. Detroit Tigers ($13,300) — This one isn’t even close, as the Indians are projected for 5.5 of the 8.1 total runs in this game. If you haven’t heard, Cleveland is going for 20 consecutive victories with its ace on the mound. Matt Boyd and the Tigers don’t stand much of a chance. With Clayton Kershaw on the mound in San Francisco, this is saying something.

Highest Total

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 11.6 projected runs — Seattle visits steamy Arlington, Texas in perfect hitting conditions with a couple of below average pitchers on the mound. Texas is projected for six runs against Marco Gonzales, who has a 7.07 ERA and allows a home run every four innings. Meanwhile, Seattle has a nice matchup of its own against Miguel Gonzalez.

Weather Concerns

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals — There could be some light showers in STL tonight, but it doesn’t sound like anything that would hold this game back from playing. Just keep an eye on it closer to first pitch.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants — This game is expected to play just fine, but after a rain delay last night, it’s worth monitoring until we know things are safe.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field — Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — This ranks as the top ballpark for runs on tonight’s slate (2nd overall).
  • Globe Life Park in Arlington — Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers — This ranks as the second-best ballpark for runs on tonight’s slate (3rd overall).
  • AT&T Park — Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants — This ranks as the worst ballpark for runs on tonight’s slate (27th overall).
  • Citi Field — New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Surprise twist! Remember that with this series moved out of Tampa due to the storm, the Rays play host to the Yankees in Queens. This ranks as the second worst ballpark for runs on tonight’s slate (tied for 25th overall).


SPLITS TO START

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Eduardo Rodriguez.918.317Gio Gonzalez.485.190
Kyle Gibson.867.311Blake Snell.518.182
Miguel Gonzalez.853.286Sonny Gray.559.207

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Nick Pivetta.999.313Clayton Kershaw.528.184
Travis Wood.898.318Corey Kluber.537.177
Matt Boyd.888.310Lance Lynn.557.188

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterPitcherABsFP/AB*
Miguel CabreraCorey Kluber533.40
Dansby SwansonGio Gonzalez103.50
Mark ReynoldsTaijuan Walker103.60

*Fantasy Points Per At Bat

LINEUP STARTERS

Pitcher to Build Around

Gerrit Cole – PIT vs. MIL – $9,400 – I totally understand if you want to go with Kluber ($13,300), Kershaw ($13,000) or Verlander ($11,600). I actually like all three, and maybe if you like some value bats, you can fit one of those pitchers with Cole into your lineup. But Cole is too good a value himself on the mound tonight for me to pass up. Cole’s topped 25 DKFP in five of his last 10 starts, including two of his last three, and a 30 DKFP game against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s batters hit just .189 career against Cole.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Francisco Lindor – CLE vs. DET – $5,600 – You don’t win 19 in a row without your leadoff man on a tear, and that’s exactly what Lindor has been doing. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in eight of his last nine games and is averaging 14.6 DKFP over his last 10. He has a fantastic matchup tonight after consecutive 20+ DKFP outings.

Save Big by Drafting …

Dansby Swanson – ATL vs. WAS – $3,100 – It’s tough to turn down such a good value play, especially when you have BvP to back it up. Swanson’s already taken Gonzalez deep twice in his career and seems poised for a big night once again in a favorable opposite hand matchup. 

Stack Em Up

Here’s where I plug my top stacks article! The red-hot Indians lead the way. Check it out here.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.