A full 15-game slate is what we have to look forward on this Monday night of baseball. I’ll get you set for this big night, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

BOS (-240) vs. BAL – David Price – Price and the Red Sox get the nod for the heavy favorites for tonight, as they return home to face the Orioles. Price continues his stretch of solid pitching as of late, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 starts and averaging 27.2 in his last five. Price faces the Orioles for the fourth time this season, having gone 19 innings allowing nine runs on 14 hits with a 23:2 K:BB ratio. The only downfall to Price pitching better as of late has been at the expense of his strikeouts. Price has seen his K/9 drop to 7.4 since the All-Star Break, which compared to the 10.1 before that, is quite the difference. However, we’ll happily take a few less strikeouts if it means he can keep posting quality starts. In a matchup against the Orioles, a team that posts a 22.9 K% on the road ranking 6th in the league, Price is a worthy consideration.

Highest Totals

COL vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – The highest projected run total of the night belongs to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, even with this game being at Chase Field. Tyler Anderson will oppose Shelby Miller in what should certainly be an offensive barrage. Owning just a .281 wOBA on the road with a .383 SLG and a .267 OBP, Anderson has been solid both at home and on the road. He’s a left-handed pitcher, which could brew some trouble against the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, who owns a .524 wOBA at home against lefties.

With Miller, he’s been awful on the mound this season, and tonight may not bring much relief. In 42 innings at Chase Field this season, Miller is allowing a .397 wOBA with a .555 SLG and a .385 OBP. Miller has also been giving up a handful of home runs here, with nine of his 13 allowed. Left-handed batters have really given Miller the most trouble at home, owning him for a .472 wOBA and a .637 SLG. Names like Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl quickly come to mind as targets in this game.

Weather Concerns

A full 15-game slate tonight and no weather concerns on the horizon.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – BAL vs BOS – Fenway Park is home to our most favorable park on the evening. Coming into tonight, every offensive category except walks are favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – OAK vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium checks in at number two on our list tonight as it hosts the Oakland A’s. All offensive categories except home runs get the nod here.
  • Minute Maid Park – TEX vs HOU – The Rangers visit their cross state rivals the Astros tonight at Minute Maid Park. Unfortunately for them, only triples are favored here.
  • Citizen Bank Park – PIT vs PHI – The Phillies will host the Pirates tonight at the undesirable Citizen Bank Park. As of tonight, only home runs and triples are favored in this park.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Shelby Miller.984.341Martin Perez.558.183
Ariel Miranda.945.333Tyler Anderson.560.226
Willy Peralta.940.314Jake Odorizzi.604.198

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Paul Clemens1.054.353Kyle Hendricks.556.192
Wily Peralta.940.314Doug Fister.597.218
Wade Miley.850.296Carlos Carrasco.649.227

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Rajai DavisMiguel Gonzalez144.28
Chris CoghlanMike Leake193.1
Rougned OdorDoug Fister143.07

  • Tonight’s BvP stats feature a bunch of names we’re usually not used to seeing. We start off with Rajai Davis taking on Miguel Gonzalez. Davis is 6-14 with a triple, three home runs and eight RBIs.
  • Next is Chris Coghlan, who is in the midst of a horrible season for the A’s. Maybe a matchup with Mike Leake will give him a boost, as he’s gone 11-19 with four doubles and two solo home runs.
  • Finally we have Rougned Odor taking on Doug Fister tonight. Odor has gone 5-14 with two doubles, two home runs and five RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Kyle Hendricks – CHC vs STL – $11,400 – I haven’t given Hendricks much love this season, and I think it’s finally time to change that. When you look at his price tag, he looks a lot more expensive than you’re likely comfortable paying up for. However, Hendricks has been on this fantastic stretch where he has not allowed more than three runs in a start since May 17! Hendricks has not had a wOBA in any month this season higher than .293 (June) or a SLG higher than .383 (June). Hendricks isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but his K/9 sits at 8.1 in the second half of the season, and the Cardinals own the fifth highest K%, 22.9, in that same time span. The pitching gets very ugly tonight once you pass the $8K mark, so tonight may be a night to pay up for your pitchers.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Charlie Blackmon – COL vs. ARZ (Shelby Miller) – $5,000 – The Rockies are most certainly not the same team on the road as they are at home, but if a pitcher could ever make them look that way tonight, it’s Miller. As I mentioned earlier, Miller is getting lit up at home, especially against left-handed batters. With Blackmon hitting at the top of that Rockies lineup and some great numbers against right-handed pitchers on the road, he’s a great option in my opinion. Against righties, Blackmon owns a .422 wOBA on the road with a .641 SLG and 14 of his 25 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brandon Phillips – CIN vs. MIL (Wily Peralta) – $3,300 – Hitting near the heart of the Reds order against Wily Peralta for just $3,300 feels like a bargain. Phillips has been hitting the ball really well lately, coming off the month of August that saw him produce a .351 wOBA and a .382 wOBA thus far in September. Against Peralta, who is allowing a .432 wOBA against righties on the road, Phillips could be a nice sneaky play at second base tonight for dirt cheap salary.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.