Two days left of the baseball regular season, and we have PLENTY of games to get to today. With a mix of make up games and regularly scheduled ones, you’ll have an abundance of options to choose from. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.h2. Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
Zack Greinke vs. San Diego Padres(-250) – It was quite strange this morning, as the majority of games didn’t have any lines posted. Maybe Vegas is just sick of all the weather problems they’re over baseball. But one thing is for sure, Greinke is the favored pitcher tonight and rightfully so. He gets a start at home against the San Diego Padres, who own a .312 wOBA in the second half of the season. They also own a 21.2 K%, which ranks 13th in the league. This start is purely a Cy Young start, as the Dodgers have nothing else to go for this season. So if any early trouble arises, I don’t expect Greinke to stick around for to long. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the entire day, which should come as no surprise. His $12,600 salary is here to put a hurtin on your salary cap. But, it’s almost impossible to fade him at this point. His last two starts haven’t been anything overly impressive, as he’s scored 21.6 and 18.2 against the Giants and the Pirates. However, those are two teams that have been hitting fairly well in the second half of the season, not so much for the Padres tonight. I don’t think fading Greinke is going to be the play tonight, so I’ll be putting him in my lineups.
Jake Peavy vs. Colorado Rockies(-174) – This pick here could be for a number of different reasons. One, the majority of lines weren’t posted, so Peavy is here by default. Or, the Rockies have just been that bad as of late. In the final month of the season, the Rockies own a .315 wOBA, which ranks 19th in the league. The strikeouts have also been very high, coming in with a 22.3 K%, which is 6th in the league during that time. Peavy has actually been quite solid as of late, as he has scores of 19.4, 18.5, and 24.7 against the Dodgers, Padres and Reds. With those numbers, it certainly explains his bump in price, as he sits at $8,900. That price for me is right on the border or too much and just right. Peavy isn’t the big strikeout pitcher he once was, as his K/9 sits a 6.4. He did however grab eight strikeouts against the Reds, who are right below the Rockies in K% at 21.7. The Rockies sit at 21.9. I think this could end up being a sneaky play for Peavy tonight, as it could be very easy to pass his name when looking for your pitchers. But that’s why you read this article, isn’t it?
Roenis Elias vs. Oakland A’s(-154) – Again, this could be another example of Elias making it here by default, but I certainly consider almost any pitcher that is taking on the A’s offense. “Offense.” To be fair, they certainly aren’t the worst in the league, but they’re close. With a .306 wOBA in the second half of the season, which ranks 27th in the league, they certainly aren’t putting the fear of god into any of their opposing pitchers. Elias comes into tonight’s start with a 3.89 ERA to go with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.4. He’s cheap enough that he certainly has to be considered, as a price of $6,900 is certainly low enough to be a bargain on the night. He isn’t exactly the poster child for a consistent pitcher, as he has scored of 15.9, 17.2 and 2.8 in his last three. But again, the price tag has to be an enticing one, especially if you’ll be rostering Greinkie tonight. Take a look at Elias, but keep your expectations in check.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Zack Greinke vs. San Diego Padres- Greinke has been solid against any one that’s thrown his way this season. Coming into this final start this season, Greinke owns a .245 against left handed batters.
Wei-Yin Chen vs. New York Yankees- Chen will get a start in the first game of the double header for the Orioles and Yankees today. Entering this start, Chen owns a .250 wOBA against left handed batters.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Zack Greinke vs. San Diego Padres- Even with a couple of extra games on the slate today, Greinke by far owns the best wOBA againt right handed batters. He comes into tonight with a .209 against righties.
Max Scherzer vs. New York Mets- Scherzer will be pitching in the night game of this day night doubleheader. He owns the second best wOBA against righties, coming in at .240.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Robbie Erlin vs. LA Dodgers- It certainly hasn’t been an easy go of things for Erlin. When he’s facing a left handed batter, he might be better off issuing an intentional walk. Erlin is allowing a .576 wOBA on the season.
Alec Asher vs. Miami Marlins- Another pitcher who might not exactly be enjoying his time in the majors in the 2015. Asher has been getting crushed by everyone, as his .421 wOBA against lefties is a clear indication.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Alec Asher vs. Miami Marlins- Oh boy. I don’t know if I would ever recommend a Marlins stack, but hey, it’s the end of the year, so why not? Asher isn’t much better against right handed batters either, with a .425 wOBA.
Chris Rusin vs. San Francisco Giants- We ALMOST made it out of this section without showcasing a Rockies pitcher getting crushed by someone. But they just can’t help themselves. Rusin own a .370 wOBA against right handed batters.
Nolan Arenado 3B ($4900) –Arenado has been crushing the ball lately. Just in time for the play…..never mind. Arenado is 9-22 with three home runs, 13 RBIs, and six runs scored.
Carlos Correa SS ($5000) – Correa had a monster game last night, which is a big reason for him being in this section today. Last night Correa scored 44 points going 3-4 with a home run, triple, single, walk and stolen base. Talk about stuffing the stat sheet. Correa is 9-25 with three home runs, nine RBIs, seven runs scored and a stolen base.
Manny Machado 3B ($4200) – When hasn’t Machado been hitting well this season? I don’t think we’ve had many instances of that. Coming into tonight, Machado is 6-21 with three home runs, four RBIs, four runs scored and four stolen baes.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
*Matt Wieters vs. Ivan Nova-*Wieters has hit Nova at quite a good clip and a good amount of at bats. Wieters is 11-34 with seven extra base hits, four of them being home runs, and a 1.159 OPS.
Rougned Odor vs. Hector Santiago- Odor has a small sample against Santiago, but he’s hit him quite well in the time. Odor is 8-15 against Santiago with four extra base hits, a home run, and a 1.544 OPS.
Jose Abreu vs. Justin Verlander- Abreu has hit Verlander quite well in the times they’ve matched up. I like this one even more, because Abreu is only $4200 tonight! Seems extremely cheap for someone who is hitting .292 with over 30 homeruns and 101 RBIs. Abreu is 8-18 against Verlander with three extra base hits, two of them being home runs, and a 1.333 OPS.
A few games have some rain today so watch these ones closely
Cardinals at Braves
Red Sox at Indians
Yankees at Orioles
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
John Lackey ($9,900) –If you want to talk about someone who keeps flying under the radar but consistently has been producing, look no further than John Lackey. Even though this game has some rain in the forecast, this one doesn’t look to be overly threating. In his last three starts, Lackey has scored 23.6, 26.4 and 31.6. These three starts have seen the Brewers for two and the Reds for one. With how well he’s pitched against these weak teams, he doesn’t get a better matchup than the Braves tonight. The Braves by far have the lowest wOBA in the league during the second half of the season at .288. The next team in line, the LA Angels, are sitting at .300. The Braves are a tough team to strikeout, as they own a 18.2 K%, which is the fourth lowest in the league. However, with the combination of awfull hitting, no power (they rank last in ISO at .100) this should be a great spot for Lackey. Let’s just hope that rain holds off.
Superstar Worth Paying For
JD Martinez ($4900) –If Lorenzo Cain ends up playing today, he was my first choice in this section. So you get a bonus player for today. Martinez face Erik Johnson today, who is allowing a .334 wOBA to right handed batters this season. Martinez has his RHP quite well this season, with a wOBA of .371 and an ISO of .249. I like this spot a lot for Martinez, because Johnson has given up quite a few home runs in his short time pitching in the majors. In just 28 innings, Johns0n has already given up seven home runs. His K:BB ratio isn’t that impressive either, as it sits at 26:14. Martinez should be worth it today.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Carl Crawford ($2900) –I’m not thrilled with Crawford as a play overall, but he does he lefties well and he gets quite a nice matchup tonight. Crawford matches up with Robbie Erlin, who allows a .576 wOBA to left handed batters. I mean, you can’t get much worse than that. With Crawford leading off for the Dodgers lately, this should be a great spot for him, as he’ll have plenty of exposure to Erlin. He won’t be getting you any 20 point game, but he can certainly be a sneak play for you with a good matchup.