With 14 games on tap for tonight, we have a plethora of options to choose from. Let’s dive into all information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves – Charlie Morton ($7,600) – With a handful of big-named pitchers on this slate tonight, you might be surprised to see Morton and the Astros as the favorites for tonight. They’ll take on a Braves team that has an implied run total of 3.5, which is the second-lowest on the night. Morton is coming off back-to-back high-scoring starts against the Oakland A’s and the Texas Rangers. In those starts, he allowed five runs on 10 hits in 13 innings with a dazzling 20 strikeouts with just two walks. While Morton may be pitching a bit over his head currently, his $7,600 salary is hard to ignore. The Braves have been average at best against righties, owning a .318 wOBA with a .332 OBP and a .403 SLG.

Highest Totals

Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – As always, Coors Field dominates regarding runs tonight with 11 projected. John Lackey and Kyle Freeland will take the mound for their teams tonight. The Cubs are favored here, with a projected run total of six as of this afternoon. Freeland has been good at home thus far in three starts, averaging 13.8 FPPG, allowing seven runs on 18 hits in 17.2 innings. His control is what’s got him in trouble the most, as he owns a 20:14 K:BB ratio. This could prove to be costly tonight as the Cubs have mashed lefties this season, owning a .345 wOBA with a .369 OBP and a .434 SLG.

As for the Rockies, they get a version of John Lackey we haven’t seen for years. Averaging just 12.7 FPPG over his first six games, Lackey has been allowing home runs in bunches thus far. With eight given up thus far, Lackey has been on a real rough stretch lately. Opposing hitters have tagged him for a 43% hard hit rate over his last three starts, and he’s allowed 12 runs on 24 hits in just 17 innings of work. I expect that trend to continue tonight.

Weather Concerns

New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – Thunderstorms will be lingering around the park all night, potentially disrupting the game at some point.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies – Ah yes, we’re back at Coors Field yet again. As always, all offensive categories are favored here.
  • Chase Field – Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field checks in as our second-most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
  • Dodger Stadium – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium ranks as our worst ballpark for hitters on this Tuesday night slate. Last season, not a single offensive category was favored here.
  • Oakland Coliseum – L.A. Angels vs. Oakland A’s – The Coliseum is the second least favorable ballpark on the slate tonight. Triples were the only category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Hector Santiago1.193.400Robbie Ray.404.152
Wily Peralta1.061.360Charlie Morton.504.172
Drew Pomeranz.965.348CC Sabathia.522.222

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Adam Wainwright1.012.397Max Scherzer.434.136
Charlie Morton.948.333Ivan Nova.482.212
Bartolo Colon.914.309Jered Eickhoff.483.207

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Adam JonesMax Scherzer252.84
Mike NapoliJered Weaver352.4

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. TOR – $10,600 – Carrasco is the second-most expensive pitcher on this slate tonight as he’ll take on the Blue Jays. His road numbers have been fantastic, owning a .212 wOBA with a .254 SLG and a .222 OBP. The Blue Jays have better at the plate lately, but their home numbers are still downright brutal. Owners of a .279 wOBA and a .288 OBP, Carrasco should be in line for a solid start here tonight. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Jays own one of the highest K% either at home either at 24.2%.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Kris Bryant – CHC vs. COL – $5,500 – I can’t stay away from Bryant against a left-handed pitcher, let alone a left-handed pitcher at Coors Field. Bryant comes into tonight owning a .579 wOBA against lefties with a .559 OBP and a .917 SLG. Bryant has only played three games at Coors Field in his career, but I’m expecting a big game here tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Corey Dickerson – TB vs. KC – $3,400 – Chris Young is scheduled to make this start, his first of the 2017 season. Last season, he split time between starting and relief, both of which ended up being disasters. As a starter, Young owned a .433 wOBA with a .689 SLG and a .366 OBP. Even more amazing was the fact that he allowed six home runs in just 56 innings. With Dickerson hitting well lately and averaging 7.7 fantasy points at home this season, he’s a nice, cheap option tonight.

Stack Em Up

Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Wily Peralta) – Thanks to a series against the Twins, the Red Sox have turned it on offensively and tonight take on Wily Peralta. His overall numbers look decent, but he’s struggled at home in three of his six starts. At home, Peralta is allowing a .441 wOBA with a .690 SLG and a .381 OBP. With the fireworks going at Coors Field tonight, the Red Sox could fly under the radar a bit regarding stacking, which could work to our advantage.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.