IMPACT PLAYER: YONDER ALONSO
Monday starts us off with a 10-game slate to kick off our week. Let’s dive into all the information you’ll need for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
L.A. Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Alex Wood ($8,600) has replaced Brandon McCarthy as the Dodgers’ starter, but regardless of who is on the mound, it’s no doubt that the Pirates are struggling at the plate. They are projected at 3.4 runs tonight which is tied for the lowest total on the slate with the San Francisco Giants. Their road numbers leave much to be desired as well, owners of just a .308 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a .385 SLG.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – The Cubs visit Coors Field for a three-game set starting tonight with Jake Arrieta and Antonio Senzatela taking the hill. The Cubs are favored here with a 5.9 run projection. Senzatela has excellent numbers thus far this season, but we should take into account who he’s faced. Before tonight he’s seen the Padres twice, Giants twice, Brewers and Nationals. I’m not saying he’s a poor pitcher, but I think the expectations may be a tad bit high for the rookie.
As for Arrieta, he’s allowed a 40% hard hit rate in his last three starts, on his way to allowing 13 runs on 24 hits in 16.1 innings. As you’d expect, the Rockies are killing it at home this season, owning a .358 wOBA with a .328 OBP and a .515 SLG. Even at his cheap $7,800 salary, Arrieta just can’t be trusted.
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – Coors Field will be dealing with the threat of thunderstorms that will be at its height right before first pitch. It diminishes quickly after that, so a delay at worst should be in play here tonight.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies – Ah yes, we’re back at Coors Field yet again. As always, all offensive categories are favored here.
- Rogers Centre – Cleveland Indians vs Toronto Blue Jays – Rogers Centre is the number two ballpark that favors hitters. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
- Dodger Stadium – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium ranks as our worst ballpark for hitters on this Monday night slate. Last season, not a single offensive category was favored here.
- Oakland Coliseum – L.A. Angels vs. Oakland A’s – The Coliseum is the second least favorable ballpark on the slate tonight as they host the Angels. Triples were the only category favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Matt Moore||1.203||.355||Blake Snell||.438||.200|
|Trevor Bauer||.931||.280||Trevor Cahill||.525||.170|
|Jake Arrieta||.814||.279||Gio Gonzalez||.567||.200|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Kevin Gausman||1.103||.338||Brandon McCathy||.635||.186|
|Ricky Nolasco||.941||.299||Trevor Cahill||.644||.246|
|Masahiro Tanaka||.940||.306||Antonio Senzatela||.644||.227|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Matt Joyce||Ricky Nolasco||15||3|
|Mike Napoli||Jered Weaver||35||2.4|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. SFG – $10,800 – Tonight doesn’t exactly bring us a ton of great pitching matchup, so rostering deGrom seems to be the safest route to go. deGrom will take on the Giants at Citi Field, which will one be his third home start of the season. The Giants continue to linger near the bottom of the barrel in terms of hitting, owning just a .272 wOBA against righties with a .283 OBP and a .340 SLG. I’d love if their K% was a bit higher, as it sits at 19.9% heading into tonight, but everything else certainly works into deGrom’s favor.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Daniel Murphy – WAS vs. BAL – $4,900 – The Nationals are fortunate enough to draw Kevin Gausman in their opening game at Camden Yards tonight. Gausman has been downright terrible as of late, allowing a 37% hard hit rate to opposing hitters over his last three starts. Gausman has been having a lot of issues with lefties at Camden Yards, allowing a .408 wOBA with a .500 SLG and a .433 OBP. Murphy comes into this game averaging 9.7 FPPG over his last 10 games with a .437 wOBA to righties on the road.
Save Big by Drafting…
Wilmer Flores – NYM vs. SFG – $3,100 – Flores doesn’t have very impressive numbers overall, but his matchup against a left-handed pitcher always shoves him into consideration. He faces Matt Moore tonight, who’s allowed a .433 wOBA to righties on the road with a .630 SLG and a .407 OBP. Flores has always been a slayer of lefties and enters tonight with a .529 wOBA against them with a .846 SLG. He’s dirt cheap and will help save some salary and hopefully put up some points.
Stack Em Up
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds (Rookie Davis) – The Yankees enter tonight with the best wOBA against righties at .355 and second in OBP, SLG and OPS at .351, .470 and .821 respectively. Tonight, they’ll take on Rookie Davis, who has been getting hit extremely hard all season long. The owner of an overall .443 wOBA to opposing hitters, Davis owns an absurd 6.1 BB/9 over four starts while averaging almost two home runs per nine innings. Even with the loss of a DH tonight, the Yankees should rake in Cincy.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.