When we’re not busy celebrating our Moms today, we have a solid slate of games on tap. Let’s jump right into all the information and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-265) vs. WSA – Jake Arrieta – Jake Arrieta takes the mound, Jake Arrieta is a huge favorite on the day. It’s basically been clockwork all throughout the season thus far. Coming into today with a huge $13,200 price tag, Arrieta owns a 0.84 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP and is averaging 29.6 FPPG. I’ve had a couple instances where I thought maybe he would be in a bit of a tough spot, but none of that has come to fruition and Arrieta continues to dominate. The Nationals rank near the bottom of the league against righties, owning a team .299 wOBA and a .688 OPS thus far in 2016. Their strikeout total ranks near the league average against righties at a 21.1 K%. At this point, it’s hard to go against Arrieta, even in a GPP format. With this favorable matchup in front of him, you have to roll with him once again.

CHW (-189) vs. MIN – Jose Quintana – Quintana as the second favorite on the day? Believe it or not, Quintana as been exceptional in six starts this season. He comes into today with a 1.40 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and has been averaging 23.7 FPPG. Surprised? I certainly was, I clearly haven’t paid much attention to what’s been going on with the White Sox rotation. He faces off with the Twins today whom dating back to 2015, own a .312 wOBA against lefties which ranks 17th in the league. The strikeouts haven’t been huge against the Twins vs. lefties, as they own a 21.2 K%. Quintana faced this Twins team earlier this season and had a great game, throwing six innings allowing one run on four hits with a 5:3 K:BB ratio.

Biggest Over/Unders

MIL vs CIN – 9 runs – We have two games that are projected at nine runs today, with the first being the Brewers and the Reds. Junior Guerra takes on John Lamb in this one. Both of these pitchers are making just their second start of the season. Lamb has a bit more major league experience, so we can start with him. Lamb has pitched 55 innings in the majors and during that span has allowed eight home runs with a 62:22 K:BB ratio. His weakness thus far has been lefties but again, this is a small sample size. With Guerra, he’s mostly been in the minors  and last season did a little of everything, from closing games, pitching in relief and started eight games. Both of these teams are struggling a bit offensively, with the Reds owning a .304 wOBA against righties since last season and the Brewers a .298 wOBA against lefties since last season. It makes for an interesting spot for both teams and I’ll be grabbing some exposure myself.

TEX vs. DET – 9 runs – The second game with a projected nine runs is Rangers and the Tigers. This game will feature Martin Perez against Justin Verlander.Both of these pitchers haven’t exactly been blowing past hitters, with Perez averaging 10.1 FPPG and Verlander with 12 FPPG. The problem with Perez thus far has been his walks, owning a 4.6 BB/9 through six starts this season. Naturally, the majority of the walks are going right handed bats, with 13 of the 18 he’s issued. When it comes to walks against a left handed pitcher, the Tigers rank 8th since 2015. A couple of bad starts have really skewed the numbers for Verlander, but we can’t deny the issue with home runs he’s having. Verlander has allowed seven in just six starts this season, making his HR/9 a 1.82 on the season. The Rangers own a .319 wOBA against righties since 2015 with a SLG of .410.

Weather Concerns

1) MIL vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – We have a slight chance of rain in the beginning of the game for this one. It shouldn’t be enough to postpone this game, but it certainly could disrupt it. I wouldn’t worry too much about this one.

2) OAK vs. BAL (Camden Yards) – This game won’t feature any rain, but they have a strong wind blowing from right to left at 17 mph.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above the 1.000 mark favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 goes for the pitchers.

  • Progressive Field -KCR vs CLE – Progressive Field was ranked the second best ballpark for hitters in 2015, with favorable ratings in runs, singles, doubles, and walks.
  • Camden Yards – OAK vs BAL – Camden Yards had the third best overall rating for hitters in 2015, with favorable ratings in runs, home runs and singles.
  • AT&T Park – COL vs SFG – The Rockies go from their league leading favorable park of Coors Field to the worst ranked ballpark in all of the majors at AT&T Park. This park only had a favorable rating for triples in 2015.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – TBR vs. LAA – Ranked the second worst ballpark in 2015, Angel Stadium only favored hitters in walks last season.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Colin McHugh1.081.383Jose Quintana.329.128
Matt Harvey.902.333Tanner Roark.414.153
Nick Tropeano.862.296Aaron Nola.495.155

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Luis Severino1.159.412Jake Arrieta.306.091
Andrew Cashner1.005.333Chris Tillman.491.167
Justin Verlander.978.308Aaron Nola.507.190

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Chase UtleyMarco Estrada104.7
Salvador PerezJosh Tomlin143.57
Matt CarpenterGerrit Cole222.77

  • We starts off with a couple of guys that haven’t had a ton of exposure to their opposing starting pitchers, but they were good enough to include. Utley is 6-10 against Estrada with three doubles, a home run, five RBIs, and three walks.
  • Next, Salvador Perez comes into today with 14 at bats against Josh Tomlin. In that span, Perez is 9-14 with three doubles, a home run, and five RBIs.
  • Finally, Carpenter faces off against Gerrit Cole. Carpenter is 8-22 with a double, three home runs, five RBIs, and two walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Quintana – CHW vs. MIN – $10,600 -Hard to deny how solid Quintana has been this season. Coming into tonight, Quintana has gone at least six innings in five of his six starts, owning a K/9 of 8.6 and BB/9 of 1.8. Facing a team like the Twins, who own a .312 wOBA since 2015, which ranks 17th in the league, Quintana surely seems like he’s in line for another quality start. It also is refreshing to see that he’s pitched well against this Twins team earlier this season which I mentioned in an earlier section. You get a significant discount from Arrieta by taking Quintana and both are in favorable matchups here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – $4,900 – Goldy is starting to see his price tag fall (if you consider $4,900 for him cheap) as he enters today batting .229 with six home runs, 16 RBIs and a .852 OPS. Even with the low average, Goldy still owns a .414 OBP and is averaging 8.6 FPPG. Today he faces off against Mike Foltynewicz, who gives up home runs like it’s nobody’s business. Truly, it’s horrible. In just 3.2 innings this season, Folyynewicz has allowed THREE home runs. Last season in 86 innings he allowed 17! If anyone can take him yard, Goldy could be that guy.

Save Big by Drafting…

Asdrubal Cabrera – NYM vs SDP (Andrew Cashner) – $3,300 – Cashner has always been all over the place this season, which kind of feels like last season. He takes on the Mets today and faces switch hitter Asdrubal Cabrera. Cashner has always struggled against lefties, which sets this match up perfectly for Cabrera. Coming into today with a .354 wOBA against right handed batters, Cabrera is a nice cheap option to get some exposure to the weakness of Cashner.

Stack Em Up

ARZ vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – As I mentioned earlier, Foltynewicz simply can’t keep the ball in the yard when he takes the mound. Facing a Diamondbacks team that rank fourth in the league in home runs with 41, it’s hard not to love this matchup for the Diamondbacks. Taking a quick glance at the salary for the D-Backs, making a stack of this team wouldn’t be difficult at all, as the majority of the players are under $4,000. You’re always looking for the big boom when making stacks and this one could certainly go off.