The weekend has arrived and we have a nice 14 game slate on tap. In what feels like a long time, we actually have more than two solid pitchers to choose from today! Lets jump right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

SFG (-210) vs. COL – Madison Bumgarner –  Bumgarner faces off with a Rockies team that owns a .381 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season with a league leading .891 OPS. The only advantage here for Bumgarner, is the 24.6 K% the Rockies own against lefties which ranks fourth in the league. With that being said, he has looked like his usual self over his last three starts, averaging 26.1 FPPG in that span with a 24:6 K:BB ratio facing the Diamondbacks, Padres and Mets. Owning the second highest salary of the day, this is a bit of a tough spot for Bumgarner because the strikeout potential is most certainly here, but how well the Rockies are hitting lefties brings him down a couple notches for me. I don’t think this is an automatic fade for me by any means, but I see a few other names on this slate that could be a bit safer.

ARZ (-165) vs. ATL – Zack Greinke – Will the real Zack Greinke, please stand up? Averaging only 11.1 FPPG this season, Greinke comes into tonight with a 5.50 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and a K:BB ratio of 32:8. Facing the Braves, one would THINK this should be an easy spot for Greinke. This is a Braves team ranked dead last in wOBA against righties at .274, ISO at .074 (good gracious) and OPS at .615. At this point, it’s almost crazy not to start a pitcher against the Braves, but even at $10,100, that feels a bit expensive for a pitcher barely averaging over 10 FPPG. I do believe that this start should be fine for Greinke, but I think we all can understand why I’m not as excited to play Greinke as I once was. It’s truly mind boggling to think that I’m debating if starting Greinke against the Braves is the best idea or not.

Highest Totals

SEA  vs. HOU – 8.5 runs – We don’t have any games projected in the nine run range, so the highest we have is multiple games in the 8.5 range. I’ve started off with SEA and HOU because I love this spot for the hitters. The Mariners send Taijuan Walker while the Astros counter with Doug Fister. The obvious elephant in the room here is Fister, who is continuing to have a rough 2016. Fister faced the Mariners with horrific results earlier this season, throwing six innings and allowing three runs on four hits (two of them being home runs). The kicker was the 2:7 K:BB ratio. No, I don’t have that backwards. It really was two strikeouts and SEVEN walks. The Mariners are a patient team, ranked sixth in the league in BB% so far this season. With Fister averaging a 3.68 BB ratio and the Mariners owning a .328 wOBA against righties, this feels like another big offensive game from Seattle.

Weather Concerns

1) BOS vs. NYY (Yankee Stadium) – This game will feature some rain and wind to start this one. We have a small chance of rain in the first two hours of this match up with a 14 mph wind blowing in from right field. We could see a delay here, but at least as of this morning, they should be able to wait this one out if needed.

2) OAK vs BAL (Camden Yards) – This game features a chance of rain the entire night, which increases as the night progresses. This game could be trouble, so keep your eye on this one.

3) TBR vs. LAA (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) – No rain in this one, but we do have a 14 mph wind blowing out to right field in this one. Keep that in mind if you were considering any hitter in this contest.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any offensive category that scores 1.000 or more favors the hitter. Anything below it, favors the pitcher.

  • Progressive Field – KCR vs CLE – Feels like it’s been quite some time since we’ve seen a game at Progressive Field. Ranked the second best park for hitters last season, Progressive Field had favorable ratings in runs, singles, doubles and walks.
  • Camden Yards – OAK vs. BAL – The A’s go from one of the worst ballparks for hitters to the best in Camden Yards. In 2015, Camden Yards had favorable ratings in runs, home runs, and singles.
  • AT&T Park – SFG vs. ATLAT&T Park is essentially the complete opposite of Coors Field. Ranked the worst ballpark for hitters last season, AT&T Park only favored hitters in triples.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – TBR vs. LAA  – Well, at least the Rays will get some wind to play with out to right field tonight. Angel Stadium only favored walks last season.

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Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Ubaldo Jimenez.031.326Danny Salazar.361.105
Michael Pineda.981.333Rick Porcello.422.161
Doug Fister.962.299Francisco Liriano.451.143

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Michael Pineda.964.281Carlos Martinez.303.136
Chris Archer.844.263Vince Velaqeuz.420.137
Rick Porcello.819.241Kenta Maeda.540.226

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Miguel CabreraCole Hamels133.92
Jacoby EllsburyRick Porcello282.78
Carlos GonzalezMadison Bumgarner462.58

  • We start off with Miguel Cabrera with his short and sweet match up with Cole Hamels. Cabrera is 8-13 with two doubles, a triple, four RBIs and five walks.
  • Next, Ellsbury has some great numbers against Porcello, although I’m a bit skeptical he can keep those home run numbers up. Ellsbury is 12-28 with two doubles, four home runs, four RBIs and a walk.
  • Finally, Carlos Gonzalez has some great numbers against Bumgarner. Coming into tonight, Gonzalez is 16-46 with four doubles, five home runs, 10 RBIs and four walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Taijuan Walker – SEA vs. HOU – $9,500 – Looking at Walker, I really think he is someone that can fly under the radar tonight with some potential options to choose from. When you have names like Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke on the slate, Walker is not going to be your first option. I love this spot for him because of the strikeout potential. The Astros own a 26.5 K% against right-handed pitching, which ranks second in the league. Walker has quietly been having a solid season, owning a 8.7 K/9 and a minuscule 0.90 BB/9. When facing the Astros, the home run threat is always something to worry about, but Walker has had that one shut down, owning a 0.30 HR/9. It’s hard not to love this spot for Walker, especially with the prospect that he’ll be under owned.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

David Ortiz -BOS vs. NYY (Michael Pineda) – $4,500 – Ortiz is certainly making us question why he’s ready to retire. The DH of the Red Sox has been crushing anyone that throws a ball at him this season. He comes into tonight batting .319 with six home runs, 23 RBIs and a 1.051 OPS. Averaging 10.2 FPPG, Ortiz faces off against Michael Pineda, who is allowing a .416 wOBA to left-handed batters. Ortiz could be stacked up nicely with some of teammates, who we’ll talk about in just a second.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ryan Raburn – COL vs. SFG (Madison Bumgarner) – $2,400 – I’m not sold that Bumgarner is going to shut down this Rockies offense. What makes me wonder this is how Bumgarner has been struggling against right-handed batters so far this season. Coming into tonight, Bumgarner owns a .346 wOBA against them allowing four home runs. These numbers have me jumping all over Raburn, who would slot nicely into your outfield at $2,400. In the early going of 2016, Raburn owns .618 wOBA against lefties. He’s so cheap that it gives you incredible flexibility with the rest of your lineup.

Stack Em Up

BOS vs. NYY (Michael Pineda) – As I mentioned earlier, Pineda is having a real rough go of it so far this season. Coming into tonight, Pineda owns a .417 wOBA against left-handed batters and a .406 wOBA against righties. With the Red Sox coming into Yankee Stadium, it certainly doesn’t help Pineda that the Sox own the highest wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching this season at .360 and .837 respectively. A stack against Pineda won’t be overly expensive either, making this my top stack of the night.