WATCH: IMPACT PLAYER MARWIN GONZALEZ


Almost every team is in action tonight with 13-games on the slate. Let’s jump right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Chris Archer ($9,600) – Chris Archer and the Rays are heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field. This will be the third time that Archer will face the Jays this year. Against them, he’s pitched a combined 15 innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 13:5 K:BB ratio. The Jays have one of the lowest projected run totals tonight at 3.5, as their overall numbers against righties continue to be poor. Archer and his 20.4 FPPG make him a candidate for your roster tonight.

Highest Totals

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies – 10 projected runs – This total is certainly one of the lower projected games at Coors Field this season. Zack Greinke and German Marquez will take the mound for their respective teams. Both of these teams have an implied run total of 5.3 as of this morning with Colorado as a slight favorite. Marquez is only making his third start of the season with one of them coming at Coors Field. Naturally, it was a disaster as he allowed eight runs on nine hits in just four innings against the Nationals. He then came back and shut down this D-Backs club his last time out, pitching six shutout innings with an 8:1 K:BB ratio. As always, Coors Field will be a popular destination for players to select team stacks, but just be aware of that lower than normal run total.

Weather Concerns

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (PNC Park) – Rain will accompany this game almost the entire night. This could be a trouble spot so keep an eye out and review the forecast.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Citizen Bank Park) – We could see a thunderstorm here at some point, but the chances are under 40% throughout the game.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (Citi Field) – Again, not a huge disturbance from the rain, but we could see an early delay here. With that being said, they should be able to fit this game in, but check closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies – Ah yes, we’re back at Coors Field yet again. As always, all offensive categories are favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our second most favorable ballpark tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored except home runs.
  • Oakland Coliseum – Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland A’s – The Tigers will visit the Coliseum for a weekend series, our least favorable ballpark for hitters. Last season, triples were the only offensive category favored here.
  • Citizens Bank Park – Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Citizens Bank Park is our second worst park for hitters tonight as the Washington Nationals visit them. Home runs were the only category favored here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Tom Koehler1.350.400Andrew Triggs.263.087
Chad Kuhl.1281.425Dallas Keuchel.365.111
Kenta Maeda.972.315Michael Fulmer.403.149

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Michael Fulmer.977.297Lance Lynn.406.125
Jesse Chavez.966.323Dallas Keuchel.531.176
Phil Hughes.867.300Chad Kuhl.540.208

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Edwin EncarnacionJason Hammel183.38
Kendrys MoralesChris Archer223.1
Dustin PedroiaPhil Hughes413

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Archer – TB vs. TOR – $9,600 – I’m a big fan of Archer tonight against the Blue Jays. His numbers at Tropicana Field have been fantastic thus far, as he’s allowing just a .281 wOBA with a .320 SLG, a .309 OBP and a K/9 of 10. This Blue Jays team has not hit well on the road with a .309 wOBA, a .382 SLG  and a K% of 21.9. Tonight is fairly top heavy with pitching salaries, so at $9,600, Archer is only the sixth most expensive pitcher on this slate. He’s certainly going to be one of the first names I select for my rosters tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mookie Betts – BOS vs. MIN – $4,800 – I love to target the higher priced batters when Coors Field is in play, as they usually go overlooked. Betts is someone I’m a fan of tonight as he takes on Phil Hughes at Target Field. Hughes has somehow only made one of his five starts at home, so I’ll go off his numbers from 2016. Last season, Hughes allowed a .385 wOBA at home and a .357 wOBA at home against righties with a .557 SLG and seven of his 13 total home runs allowed. Betts has a .413 wOBA against righties on the road so far with a .591 SLG and a .385 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Michael Conforto – NYM vs. MIA – $3,700 – Conforto continues to be priced cheaply despite averaging 9.3 FPPG in the early going of the season. Tonight he’ll face off against Tom Koehler, who has been having a boatload of issues with lefties. With a .543 wOBA against lefties to go along with a .850 SLG, Koehler has been letting the ball fly with five home runs allowed. Conforto will bring his .444 wOBA against righties at home to this matchup tonight, making it one of my favorites on this slate.

Stack Em Up

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Vince Velasquez) – Velasquez will face this Nationals team for the second time this season tonight. In his first start, he lasted only four innings allowing four runs on five hits with a 10:3 K: BB ratio. Velasquez has been extremely shaky with his control, owning a 5.1 BB/9 in five starts. The home run ball has also been an issue, as he’s allowed at least one in every start. With the Nationals currently one of the best hitting clubs in all of baseball, their ownership could take a dip tonight with Coors Field in play, making them my top stack for tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.