It feels like most of the games went according to plan yesterday. We certainly needed that after a frustrating few days where everything went the complete opposite. We have a nine game slate tonight, so let’s get right into it! As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

NYM (-165) vs. SDP – Jacob deGrom  – After having numerous issues to start the season, deGrom has been breezing through lineups recently. Coming into tonight, deGrom owns a 1.02 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.1. He faces off against the Padres, who rank third in the league in K% at 26%. At this point, it’s hard to critique anything about deGrom thus far, as his first three starts of the season have been about as clean as you could ask for. He has yet to allow a home run, he’s only allowed two runs in his first three starts. Truly, he’s been great. Going against a Padres team that struggles against right-handed pitching with a .270 wOBA, which ranks last in the league, deGrom is the chalk on the night.

TOR (-160) vs. TEX – J.A. Happ – I’ll be the first to admit that when I heard Happ was going back to join the Blue Jays, I didn’t think it would end well. Boy was I wrong about that. Averaging 15.9 FPPG, Happ comes into tonight sporting a 2.76 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.5. Happ takes on a Rangers team that owns a .315 wOBA against lefties, which ranks 15th in the league, and a 21.6 K%, ranked 18th. At $7,500, Happ could be good value tonight and could pull off a decent game. The strikeout potential is low, so to think that he could hover around that 12-15 point range tonight seems doable. You certainly should get what you pay for with Happ tonight.

Highest Totals

BOS vs. CHW – 8.5 runs – We have five game that have 8.5 as a projected run total tonight, so I’m just picking a couple to list here that I find interesting. The Red Sox face a right-handed pitcher in Erik Johnson after getting two left-handed pitchers in the past two games. The Red Sox are MUCH more effective against righties, owning a .357 wOBA which ranks first in the league. The White Sox take on left-handed pitcher Henry Owens who is a big time prospect for the Red Sox, but his talent hasn’t really showcased well in the majors. Owens has allowed five runs in 9.1 innings with a 7:7 K:BB ratio. Even with the White Sox only owning a .298 wOBA against lefties, I think Owens is allowing too much to opposing hitters for the White Sox to not be able to muster up some runs here. I think this is a great game to target tonight.

MIL vs. CIN – 8.5 runs – Another game checking in with 8.5 projected runs is the Brewers taking on the Reds. Besides the fact that it’s at Great American Ballpark, a great spot for hitters, the combination of Chase Anderson and Alfredo Simon taking the mound tonight screams offense. Anderson is averaging 7.5 FPPG while Simon is at a whopping -.5. No, really.  Simon owns a 13.50 ERA in five starts with a 2.85 WHIP. If that’s not someone you want to be targeting against, I don’t know who is. The Brewers own a .319 wOBA against right-handed batters thus far, but I don’t think that even matters when facing Simon. With Anderson, he’s allowed at least four runs over his last three starts while walking eight. The Reds aren’t really hitting righties well with a .286 wOBA, but again, I feel like anyone can hit these pitchers.

Weather Concerns

Should be a clear night of baseball! However, always check before game time just to be on the safe side.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. An offensive category that has a rating of 1.000 or higher is favored for the hitter. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitcher.

  • Camden Yards – NYY vs BAL  – Camden Yards was ranked the third best ballpark in 2015 with a favorable rating in runs, home runs and singles.
  • Great American Ballpark – MIL vs. CIN – Great American Ballpark has always been deemed a great hitters park. In 2015, this park had favorable ratings in every offensive category except triples.
  • U.S. Cellular Field – BOS vs. CHW – In 2015, U.S. Cellular Field only had a favorable rating in home runs and walks. This ranks as the worst ballpark on the slate for hitters.
  • Rogers Centre – TEX vs. TOR – While Rogers Centre may favor pitchers more than it does hitters, it did have favorable ratings in home runs and doubles in 2015.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Alfredo Simon1.567.464Derek Holland.317.100
Adam Conley1.054.381Robbie Ray.381.148
Matt Cain.911.339Jacob deGrom.408.186

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Chase Anderson1.212.418Joe Ross.308.128
Robbie Ray.986.324Mashiro Tanaka.518.170
Alfredo Simon.955.375Kyle Hendricks.554.207

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jonathan LucroyAlfredo Simon104
Josh DonaldsonDerek Holland202.4
Jose AltuveWade Miley122.25

  • Lucroy kicks us off against Alfredo Simon. Lucroy is 6-10 with two home runs, three RBIs and a walk
  • Josh Donaldson faces off against Derek Holland tonight going 6-20 with two doubles, two home runs, three RBIs and two walks.
  • And finally, Altuve doesn’t exactly have a very exciting BvP stats with Wade Miley, but it’s good enough for a mention. Altuve is 7-12 with three doubles. Yeah, thats it.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. SDP – $11,400 – Yeah sorry, this is about as boring as a pick gets because I think it’s fairly obvious how much of a stud deGrom should be tonight. But, maybe we have people who don’t know and need a bit of explaining. As I mentioned earlier, deGrom has been fantastic in his three starts this season and gets a Padres team that almost tops the list in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers and is dead last in .wOBA against them. Truly, you couldn’t have a more perfect storm for deGrom in this spot. Even with his high price tag, the rest of this slate isn’t overly impressive, so taking deGrom is almost a no brainer here. I will say though, in a GPP tonight, he’d be the ultimate fade if you’re looking to go contrarian, as he should see some very high ownership numbers.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Giancarlo Stanton – MIA vs ARZ (Robbie Ray) – $5,400 – I know, I’m really going out on a limb with some of these picks tonight, aren’t I? All joking aside, Ray has been getting smoked by right-handed bats so far this season. I think that’s clearly evident by his .426 wOBA against them so far. Ray has allowed four home runs thus far and walked 13 in five starts against righties. Stanton, on the other hand, has a .473 wOBA against lefties with an ISO of .500. Yes, those are legit numbers. So, I think it’s safe to say why I’m on Stanton tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Charlie Blackmon – COL vs. SFG (Matt Cain) – $3,700 – Without much fanfare, Blackmon has returned to the Rockies lineup and has been batting leadoff. He has a match up against Matt Cain tonight, who just continues to pitch in the majors despite being constantly whacked around. Cain owns a .395 wOBA against lefties so far this season allowing two home runs. Blackmon has only played in 14 games so far, so I’ll give you his career wOBA instead of his small sample in 2016. Blackmon owns a career .341 wOBA against righties with an ISO of .157. Getting a few cracks at Cain tonight is certainly worth that $3,700 salary.

Stack Em Up

MIL vs. CIN (Alfredo Simon) – So technically, TECHNICALLY, Simon struggles more against left-handed batters than he does right. So on paper, it wouldn’t make all that much sense to stack up the right-handed heavy Brewers. However, at this point, Simon can’t get out ANYBODY. In his short outings so far this season, Simon owns a .640 wOBA against lefties and a .422 against righties. He’s allowed five home runs and owns BB/9 of 6.7. This is over a span of four starts. I mean, I cant make these numbers up. At this point, it doesn’t matter who Simon is facing, everyone has been getting a piece.