Thursday night brings us a short but sweet five-game slate. Roster construction will have to be a bit unique if you want to differentiate yourself from the field, so let’s jump right into it. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Adam Wainwright ($7,400) – Wainwright and the Cardinals lead the way on this short slate as the heavy favorites. Aside from his only good start of the season, which happened to be against this Brewers team, Wainwright has been hit hard. Over his last three starts, he’s allowing a 37% hard hit rate to opposing hitters while allowing 10 runs on 25 hits in 16 innings. Pitching at home tonight certainly is a boost to Wainwright, but the Brewers have been one of the best hitting teams on the road this season. Coming into tonight, they own a .339 wOBA with a .484 SLG and a .310 OBP. Strangely enough, the Brewers have the lowest projected run total tonight at just 3.5 runs. Personally, I think Wainwright is a GPP play only, but I can see people having no choice but to roster him in cash.

Highest Totals

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – 10 projected runs – The Red Sox and Orioles are set to wrap up their highly emotional series tonight at Fenway Park. Both teams are projected at five runs apiece, as they send Tyler Wilson and Kyle Kendrick to the mound. Kendrick got the call up from Triple-A, and during that time, Kendrick has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 27 innings of work with a 20:5 K:BB ratio and seven home runs allowed. Meanwhile, the Orioles will be running out Tyler Wilson, who has been working out of the bullpen for the O’s. Last season as a starter, Wilson allowed a .353 wOBA with a .505 SLG with 13 home runs.

Weather Concerns

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – It will be raining in St. Louis all the way up to game time, so they might have a delay. They should be able to play, however, as the night clears up. Be sure to check closer to first pitch.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – This could be a problem area tonight, as Atlanta will be dealing with thunderstorms all throughout the night. Keep a watch on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for the night as the Orioles continue their visit. All offensive categories were favored here last season except for walks.
  • SunTrust Park – New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves – If they can fit this game in, SunTrust will be our second most favorable park tonight. Last season, runs, singles and walks were all favored here.
  • Tropicana Field – Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Tropicana Field is our most unfavorable ballpark tonight as the Rays host the Marlins. Last season, walks were the only favorable stat here for hitters.
  • Busch Stadium – Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our number two ballpark that favors pitchers as all offensive categories had a rating under 1.000 last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Adam Wainwright.989.357Jaime Garcia.507.192
Zack Wheeler.846.261Matt Andriese.664.213
Dan Straily.752.279Ariel Miranda.664.304

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Adam Wainwright.900.365Zack Wheeler.512.204
Matt Andriese.875.279Dan Straily.522.137
Jaime Garcia.795.244Chase Anderson.571.172

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Freddie FreemanZack Wheeler144.2
Wilmer FloresJaime Garcia103.8

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Dan Straily – MIA vs. TB – $9,600 – Aside from his first start of the season, Straily has been a nice surprise for the Marlins this season. Taking out that first start, Straily is averaging 21.4 FPPG allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 22.2 innings with a 29:10 K:BB ratio. He’ll face the leaders in K% against righties, as the Rays sit at 25.7%. With so many limited options on the slate, Straily seems to be one of the safer options.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Andrew Benintendi – BOS vs. BAL – $4,800 – Benintendi is involved in the highest projected game of the night and has a great matchup on tap. Hitting at Fenway Park has been a great place for him, especially against righties, as he owns a .381 wOBA with a .545 SLG and a .361 OBP. If Wilson pitches as he has in the past as a starter, it could result in a big night for the Red Sox.

Save Big by Drafting…

Taylor Motter – SEA vs. LAA – $3,400 – Motter is extremely cheap but he’s coming off a rough series against the Indians. After going 0-7 in that series, Motter will look to rebound and has a good matchup tonight to do so. Facing Alex Meyer, a right-handed pitcher with shaky control and a career .340 wOBA against opposing righties, Motter may rebound tonight. Even though Motter has less than stellar overall numbers, he owns a .407 wOBA against righties this season with a .655 SLG.

Stack Em Up

Seattle Mariners vs. L.A. Angels (Alex Meyer) – The Red Sox and Orioles are likely going to be the most popular stacks on the night, so I wanted to showcase another team I like. The Mariners will be facing Meyer, who I just talked about briefly above. They’ve been hitting well against righties this season, owners of a .324 wOBA with a .431 SLG and a .323 OBP. Even on the short slate, this stack could be overlooked and one that could end up being quite productive.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.