MIA (-175) vs. ARZ – Jose Fernandez – No surprise here with Fernandez getting the nod on this slate. He’s been very up and down in the early going this season, but he’s still averaging 20.7 FPPG, even with an ERA of 4.08. Owning a K/9 of 12.5 will certainly help that fact. Coming into tonight, the Diamondbacks aren’t striking out a ton against right-handed pitching, owning a 19.5 K%, which ranks 21st in the league. Their wOBA isn’t too shabby either at .322. Even with a less than stellar matchup on paper, I’m not looking to fade Fernandez here. The other options on this slate aren’t very enticing.
TOR (-175) vs. TEX – Aaron Sanchez – After getting crushed by Oakland, Sanchez bounced back nicely in his last start against the Rays. Sanchez went seven innings allowing no runs on six hits with a 6:2 K:BB ratio. Tonight he takes on a Rangers team that is full of left-handed batters, which makes me curious as to why Sanchez is in this spot. Sanchez against lefties is basically kryptonite to Superman. In his career, Sanchez owns a .346 wOBA against them. I get that Colby Lewis may have a tough outing against the Blue Jays, which could allows Sanchez to squeeze out a victory, I just can’t get behind Sanchez facing all those lefties.
TEX vs. TOR – 9.5 runs – Again, another reason I’m not a fan of Sanchez tonight. Every time this situation arises, I say the same thing and today is no different. I have a hard time justifying taking a pitcher in what’s projected to be the highest run total of the night. I would side with the high run total over Sanchez having a successful night on the mound. Besides the fact that Sanchez has so many lefties to face, Colby Lewis for the Rangers has been giving up home runs like crazy. With seven allowed in five starts, Lewis takes on a Blue Jays team with 20 on the season, tied for 12th in the league. I’d avoid the pitching in this one (duh).
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category scores 1.000 or more, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitcher.
- Camden Yards – NYY vs BAL – Camden Yards checks in as the best hitting ballpark on this seven game slate. It favored hitters in runs, home runs and singles in 2015.
- Marlins Park – ARZ vs. MIA – Miami was ranked 14th overall last season, but checks in as the second best park for hitters tonight. Miami only favored hitters in triples and walks in 2015.
- U.S. Cellular Field – BOS vs. CHW – In 2015, U.S. Cellular Field only favored hitters in home runs and walks.
- Rogers Centre – TEX vs. TOR – Rogers Centre only scored a favorable rating in home runs and doubles in 2015.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Clay Buchholz||1.045||.358||Colby Lewis||.526||.316|
|Alex Wood||1.036||.393||Drew Smyly||.652||.184|
|Phil Hughes||.817||.333||Jose Fernandez||.698||.227|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Fiers||.888||.280||Drew Smyly||.438||.136|
|Mike Leake||.833||.324||Aaron Sanchez||.462||.196|
|CC Sabathia||.788||.310||Jose Fernandez||.571||.228|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Justin Smoak||Colby Lewis||16||3.18|
|Ryan Howard||Mike Leake||21||2.42|
|Adam Jones||CC Sabathia||61||2.29|
- Smoak hasn’t been seeing a ton of playing time, but he’s owns some decent numbers against Colby Lewis. Smoak is 7-16 with two doubles, two home runs, four RBIs and two walks against Lewis.
- Howard comes into tonight with some decent numbers against Mike Leake. Howard is 7-21 with a double, two home runs, five RBIs and two walks.
- Finally, Jones has seen a TON of CC Sabathia, and has some great success against him. Jones is 19-61 with four doubles, a triple, four home runs, 14 RBIs and four walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Aaron Sanchez – TOR vs. TEX – $6,400 – I think it’s quite obvious that everyone will see Jose Fernandez and automatically be on board. I don’t blame you, it’s not the best matchup, but on this slate it’s appealing. I like Sanchez a lot as your second pitcher as his matchup against the Rangers is enticing as well. The Rangers come into tonight owning a .305 wOBA against right-handed pitchers with a 19.1 K%. Sanchez has been money against righties, owning a career .192 wOBA. Even with Texas having a few solid left handed-hitters on their team, I think Sanchez comes out with a nice score on the night.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Josh Donaldson – TOR vs. TEX (Colby Lewis) – $5,000 – Sure, the Blue Jays are stumbling as an offense as a whole. I don’t think any of us expected this, but Donaldson is certainly not the reason for this. He comes into tonight hitting .292 with nine home runs, 21 RBIs and a 1.037 OPS. Donaldson takes on Colby Lewis tonight and I love his chances of grabbing his 10th home run of the season. Lewis has already allowed seven home runs this season with three of those coming off of a right-handed bat. It doesn’t hurt that Lewis owns a .325 wOBA against righties either.
Save Big by Drafting…
Melky Cabrera – CHW vs. BOS (Clay Buchholz) – $3,000 – Clay Buchholz is taking the mound for the Red Sox tonight and the only thing I trust here is that he’s likely to implode, again. Buchholz has been a ticking time bomb this season, allowing five runs in four of his five starts and not going deeper than the fifth inning. Lefties have been crushing him so far and with Cabrera being a switch hitter, he will most certainly do so here. Lefties own a .450 wOBA against him this season and Cabrera has a .345 wOBA against righties. Short money for a good spot.
Stack Em Up
BAL vs. NYY (CC Sabathia) – Sabathia has historically been rocked by right-handed bats his entire career. However, at this point, everyone is grabbing a piece. Facing the dynamic Orioles lineup, this would be a great spot to stack those big bats as they take on the big man. Even worse for Sabathia, this start at Camden Yards certainly won’t be doing him any favors. Sabathia owns a .349 wOBA against righties and a .347 against lefties. The Orioles own a .325 wOBA against lefties, ranked 12th in the league.