WATCH: STACKS TO CONSIDER HOUSTON ASTROS


With another full 15-game slate tonight, we have plenty of ways to build our lineups. Let’s jump into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Jake Arrieta ($10,600) – Arrieta and the Cubs are the heavy favorites on this slate tonight as they continue their series with the Phillies. Arrieta hasn’t looked like his dominant self thus far, sporting an average of 18.4 FPPG with a .341 wOBA in five starts. He’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate at $10,900, but that feels like nothing compared to last night. The Phillies are only projected to score 2.9 runs, so Arrieta is naturally one of the top picks of the night. With that being said, I’m not too keen on relying on him fully just yet. Arrieta has allowed a 41% hard hit rate in his last three starts, which doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence. I think we have quite a few pitchers below him tonight that have a better matchup at a lower price.

Highest Totals

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – 9 projected runs – The Astros own the highest run total of the night at 4.9 runs as they take on Nick Martinez at home. Coming into tonight, the Astros have been one of the best hitting teams against righties this season, owners of a .341 wOBA with a .438 SLG and a .348 OBP. Martinez has only made two starts thus far, so if we look at his career numbers, he’s historically owned a .348 wOBA to opposing hitters. The Astros should be a popular stack tonight as they’re one of two teams close to five projected runs tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – 9 projected runs – The Red Sox once again have one of the highest run totals of the night as they take on Kevin Gausman at Fenway Park. Gausman is in the midst of a horrific stretch of games that’s seen him allow 18 runs in 14 innings on 16 hits and six home runs. One of those games was against the Red Sox at Camden Yards, where they tagged him for five runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings with three home runs. The Red Sox are still slumping a bit at the plate, owning just a .295 wOBA over the past seven games, but Gausman has run into so much trouble that it’s hard to keep those Sox bats out of your lineup.

Weather Concerns

Update: The MIL @ STL game has been postponed.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – St. Louis is going to get soaked tonight with rain, making it very unlikely this game will play. Of course, it’s wise to check the forecast closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for the night as the Orioles continue their visit. All offensive categories were favored here last season except for walks.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals – The battle of two struggling offenses in a hitters park will take place again tonight at Kauffman. Last season, this stadium favored all offensive categories except home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – San Francisco Giants vs. L.A. Dodgers – No offensive categories were favored at Dodger Stadium last season.
  • Minute Maid Park – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second least favorable park on this slate. Triples were the only offensive category that got the nod here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Jeff Samardzija1.228.365Robbie Ray.379.143
Hisashi Iwakuma1.142.333Charlie Morton.442.143
Adam Wainwright.989.357Blake Snell.462.231

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Charlie Morton1.054.365Carlos Carrasco.438.132
Kevin Gausman1.025.347 Jeff Samardzija.505.194
Jered Weaver.948.255Hisashi Iwakuma.529.137

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Avisail GarciaNathan Karns113.45
Mookie BettsKevin Gausman233
Mike MoustakasMike Pelfrey143

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. ATL – $10,400 – deGrom will be facing the Braves for the second time this season. In his first start, deGrom pitched six innings allowing no runs on two hits with a 6:1 K:BB ratio. The Braves are hitting right-handed pitching well, owners of a .325 wOBA and a .421 SLG, but deGrom has been on point in back-to-back starts, both against the Nationals. Jake Arrieta, Carlos Carrasco and deGrom are all within $500 of each other in salary, and I think he has the best matchup of the three.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Khris Davis – OAK vs. MIN – $4,100 – Davis is hardly one of the most expensive hitters on this slate, but I like his matchup tonight against Hector Santiago. Davis is notorious for blasting home runs, and Santiago is notorious for allowing them. Coming into tonight, Davis owns a .375 wOBA on the road with a .333 ISO and a .327 OBP. He’s fairly inexpensive, and he has a great opportunity for production.

Save Big by Drafting…

Jayson Werth – WAS vs. ARI – $3,600 – Werth hasn’t faced many lefties so far this season, but going off his numbers last year, he crushed in those matchups. Werth owned a .432 wOBA against lefties with a .620 SLG and a .411 OBP. Facing Robbie Ray, who’s allowing a .351 wOBA to righties thus far this season, Werth should be worth his cheap salary tonight.

Stack Em Up

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kevin Gausman) – For me, it’s going to be tough to ignore a Red Sox stack tonight against Gausman. As I mentioned before, he’s been torn apart in his last three starts, and it doesn’t look like he’s on the fast track to improving. During that three-game stretch, opposing hitters own a 35% hard hit rate and a batted ball distance of 221 feet, which is a 15 ft. difference than his overall numbers this season. This stack will be somewhat expensive, but with so many cheap pitchers on this slate, you should be able to squeeze them in.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.