Editor’s Note: Cincinnati SP, Jon Moscot has been scratched from his start tonight. John Lamb will start in his place.

Let’s get you ready for a big slate on Tuesday! As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

NYM (-240) vs. ATL – Matt Harvey – Harvey is a huge favorite on the night, going up against the Atlanta Braves and their inability to hit a baseball. The Braves come into today with the second to worst wOBA in the league at .271. Even with Harvey not looking like his old self, it’s hard not to recommended a pitcher against the Braves. This will be the second time Harvey faces the Braves, and in his last start he threw for five innings allowing two runs on seven hits with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. It certainly wasn’t a stellar start, as he needed 101 pitchers just to make it through the five innings. Harvey has been extremely inconsistent in the early going of this season, averaging only 11.5 FPPG. As I said though, going against the Braves, you’d THINK Harvey is in a good position to find success.

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CHC (-185) vs. PIT – Jake Arrieta – It wouldn’t be a “biggest favorites” section without the Cubs, now would it? Arrieta checks in as the second most favored pitcher on the night, dealing against the Pirates. The Pirates hit right handed pitching well, with the owning a .349 wOBA, which ranks fourth in the league. The Pirates don’t strikeout much either, owning an 18.5 K% against righties. With Arrieta owning the highest salary of the night at $12,000, I’m a bit skeptical on this start, even with how well Arrieta has dominated thus far this season. I will say one thing though– he mopped the floor with the Pirates last season, throwing 36 innings allowing three runs on 18 hits with an 8.3 K/9.

Highest Totals

TEX vs. TOR – 9 runs – Two teams that haven’t met their pre-season expectations yet are set to do battle tonight. Martin Perez takes the mound for the Rangers while Marco Estrada does the same for the Blue Jays. Both teams are smack dab in the middle of the league in wOBA, with Texas in 15th with a .312 and Toronto 16th at .311. Perez has struggled against right handed batters, owning a .365 wOBA against them to start the season. Perez is also having a big problem with walks, allowing a 4.2 BB/9 over five starts this season. Estrada has also lacked control, issuing a ton of free passes which have led to a 4.1 BB/9. On paper, this game should have plenty of offense, but both teams are scuffling a bit. I still would get my exposure here, as the upside for both teams is high.

LAA vs. MIL – 9 runs- Continuing their interleague play, the Angels send out Nick Tropeano to take on Junior Guerra. The Brewers have been hitting right handed pitching well, owning a .321 wOBA, but they also have a 25.4 K%, which is fourth in the league. Tropeano has some K potential, owning a 9.1 K/9 last season. Tropeano isn’t someone I’m completely off tonight, as he’s been holding righties to a .236 wOBA thus far this season. The Brewers really are thin from the left side. Guerra is making just his fourth appearance in the majors and his first ever start. He had three relief appearances for the White Sox last season. The Angels are one of the worst against righties, owning a .286 wOBA. I have to admit, this game doesn’t exactly get me all warm and fuzzy for runs.


Weather Concerns

For the second day in a row, we have zero weather concerns on the day!


Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. When an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Camden Yards – NYY vs BAL – Camden Yards had the fourth best rating for a ballpark in 2015. It had favorable ratings in runs, home runs, and singles in 2015.
  • Great American Ballpark – SFG vs. CIN – The Reds sure loved being in their own ballpark yesterday, as they used it to knock around Johnny Cueto and a ton of our lineups. In 2015, this park had a favorable rating in every offensive category except triples.
  • Citi Field – ATL vs NYM – It’s not really nice to give the Braves less of an advantage, they need all the help they can get. Citi Field did not favor hitters in a single category in 2015.
  • U.S. Cellular Field – BOS vs CHW – At least U.S. Cellular favors one of the most important stats. In 2015, this park only favored hitters in home runs and walks. From exciting to boring, real quick.


TargetsWeatherHottest Hitters
PitchersTop 5'sCheat Sheet


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

WORST VS. LHBOPSAVGBEST VS. LHBOPSAVG
Chris Young.959.286Jose Quintana.361.133
Nick Tropeano.918.326Dan Straily.380.088
Jon Niese.857.238Tanner Roark.435.161

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Luis Severino1.149.459Jake Arrieta.295.080
Andrew Cashner1.064.340Matt Wisler.488.160
Sonny Gray.906.271Steven Wright.525.200

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Alex RodriguezChris Tillman135.38
Josh DonaldsonMartin Perez132.92
Carlos SantanaJustin Verlander562.05

  • We start off our world famous BvP section with a couple of small sample sizes. First, A-Rod is 6-13 against Tillman with four home runs, nine RBIs, and three walks.
  • Next we have Donaldson going 5-13 off Perez with three doubles, a home run, two RBIs and two walks.
  • I wanted to included Santana in this spot only because he’s crushed Verlander when he does get at hit. However, it’s not that often. Santana is 13-56 (meh) with two doubles, seven home runs (oh, ok) 11 RBIs and six walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Scott Kazmir – LAD vs. TBR – $8,800 – I’ve gotten the sense that many think this is a bad spot for Kazmir because of how he’s performed thus far in 2016. While he hasn’t been on his A game, I also can’t completely dismiss the schedule he’s had either. In his five starts, Kazmir has faced the Giants twice and the Rockies in Coors Field. In his other two starts against much weaker offenses, Kazmir posted 26.9 points against the Padres and 16.1 against the Marlins. The Rays are currently 12th in wOBA against lefties with a .322 wOBA. I don’t think this is a bad spot for him and I believe a lot of people will be steering clear. This is a bit of a risky play, but I think if it pays off, it will be a difference maker in your lineup.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Wil Myers – SDP vs. COL (Eddie Butler) – $4,200 I don’t really love anything about the Padres. Quite frankly, they’re horrendous. However, I do like any team that will go up against Eddie Butler. He was quite something on the mound last season, owning a .358 wOBA against right handed batters last season. Myers has been one of the lone bright spots for the Padres thus far, owning a .366 wOBA against righties and an ISO of .203. At $4,200, I’d certainly be looking to have some exposure here.

Save Big by Drafting…

J.T. Realmuto – MIA vs. ARZ (Patrick Corbin) – $3,400 A catcher has finally made his way into the value section of this article. It only took a month. I love this spot for Realmuto facing Patrick Corbin. The lefty has been destroyed by right handed batters this season to a tune of a .381 wOBA. Realmuto owns a .454 wOBA against lefties in the early going this season with a career wOBA of .354. At his price, he almost feels like a must for me.

Stack Em Up

CHC vs. PIT (Jon Niese) – I was all in on the Cubs against Cole last night and they didn’t disappoint (although my pitching sure did.) Tonight should be no different for the Cubbies, facing off against Jon Niese. So far this season, Niese owns a .368 wOBA against lefties and .400 wOBA against righties. With Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant all viable options, this would be a hard stack for me to pass up on.