WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS MATT KEMP


Wednesday night brings us a nine-game slate. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants – Max Scherzer ($13,300) – Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on this slate tonight, but has one of the more enticing matchups. He’s on the road against the San Francisco Giants, who own a league-low .273 wOBA at home with a .335 SLG and a .288 OBP. They’re not striking out a ton at AT&T Park; in fact, they have one of the lowest K% at home at 19.1%. Specifically, against lefties, that number jumps up slightly to 20.3%. Nonetheless, Scherzer has been dominant on the road, and he should have no problem taking care of this Giants offense tonight. In 34.2 road innings, Scherzer has posted a .252 wOBA with a .347 SLG.

Highest Totals

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers – 9.5 projected runs – The Rays and Rangers are tabbed for the highest projected run total of the night at Globe Life Park. The Rays have the highest run total of the night at 5.2 runs as they set to face Austin Bibens-Dirkx. He’s been pitching in long relief for the Rangers, making four appearances for 11.1 innings, allowing five runs on eight hits with two home runs. Aside from that, he’s never pitched in the majors before and has spent over 10 years down in the minors. He doesn’t have much strikeout potential and has averaged just under two home runs per nine innings. He’ll face a Rays team that owns a .336 wOBA against righties with a .457 SLG and a .332 OBP.

Weather Concerns

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (Kauffman Stadium) – This game could see a delay to start, but they should be able to get underway soon after. Be sure to check this one closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark, favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our number one ballpark for hitters on the slate. Last season, Kauffman favored all categories except home runs.
  • Globe Life Park – Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers – Globe Life Park is our second most favored ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories got the nod here last season.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Atlanta Braves vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, home runs were the only category favored here
  • Guaranteed Rate Park – Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox – The Red Sox will be visiting the second most unfavored ballpark for hitters tonight in Chicago. Last season, only home runs and triples were favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Drew Pomeranz1.092.400James Paxton.263.105
Hyun-Jin Ryu1.043.354Jaime Garcia.543.196
Masahiro Tanaka.811.276Jacob deGrom.614.216

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kevin Gausman.979.370Max Scherzer.457.136
Masahiro Tanaka.961.311Chris Archer.534.190
Matt Boyd.910.328James Paxton.538.203

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Jayson WerthMatt Cain102.8
Martin MaladonoJaime Garcia172.29

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

James Paxton – SEA vs. COL – $8,200 – Paxton is coming off the disabled list tonight and will be starting at home against the Rockies. As of this afternoon, I don’t see any reports of him being on a pitch count, so a favorable matchup at home is prime picking. Before hitting the disabled list, Paxton was posting 28.8 DKFP in three home starts with a .207 wOBA and a .217 SLG to go with a K/9 of 10.1. As you’d expect, the Rockies’ numbers on the road drop, owning just a .315 wOBA with a .414 SLG and a 23.3 K%, which ranks ninth in the league. At his low salary, Paxton is a fantastic value and could reach another elite score.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Aaron Judge – NYY vs. BAL – $5,400 – I’m not quite sure if anyone is going to be able to stop the tear Aaron Judge is on, so until then, enjoy it. Judge is on the road tonight at Camden Yards where he takes on Kevin Gausman. At home, Gausman is posting 11.8 FPPG to go with a .359 wOBA with a .453 SLG and four of his 10 home runs allowed. On the road against righties, Judge owns a .380 wOBA with a .544 SLG and a .351 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Salvador Perez – KC vs. DET – $2,900 – A $2,900 salary for Perez is way too low for me to ignore tonight. He doesn’t have the most stellar overall numbers, but he has still hit 11 home runs on the year while knocking in 29 runs. On the road against righties, Matt Boyd has allowed a .401 wOBA with a .495 SLG with two of his seven home runs. For a matchup like this, Perez is too cheap to not be considered.

Stack Em Up

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kevin Gausman) – I have no problem picking on Gausman tonight at Camden Yards. Over his last three starts, Gausman is allowing a 31% hard contact rate to opposing hitters with an average distance of 219 ft. The Yankees continue to be one of the best hitting clubs on the road this year, posting a .331 wOBA with a .418 SLG and a .340 OBP. With the majority of their hitters priced in the mid $3K range or low $4K, this won’t be a hard stack to fit onto your roster.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.