Tuesday night brings us a huge 14-game slate that features Coors Field. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds – J.A. Happ ($8,200) – Happ will return from the disabled list to take on the Cincinnati Reds. Happ has made only three starts thus far, and this will be his first since April 16. He’ll face a Reds team that owns a .334 wOBA against lefties with a .460 SLG and a .320 OBP. The Reds are also one of the best hitting clubs on the road as well, posting a .327 wOBA with a .439 SLG and the second lowest K% in the league at 18.4%. The Blue Jays are currently projected at the second-highest run total of the night at 5.8, but I can also see the Reds getting their offense going as well. I’m not a fan of Happ tonight, as I think the mix of returning from injury and a tough matchup doesn’t bode well for him.

Highest Totals

Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – As always, Coors Field gets the highest projected run total of the night with the Rockies tabbed for six. They’ll be taking on Ariel Miranda, who is averaging just 8.8 FPPG in six road starts with a .371 wOBA and a .544 SLG with eight of his 10 home runs allowed. Besides how well the Rockies hit at home, they’re hitting lefties very well this season, with a .338 wOBA and a .468 SLG. Nolan Arenado is my top play for this game, as he’s crushed lefties at Coors, posting a .506 wOBA with a .815 SLG and three home runs.

Weather Concerns

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – Baltimore will feature a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night, with the biggest chance late in the game. However, they should be able to fit this game in.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets (Citi Field) – Just like Baltimore, New York will have a chance of thunderstorms tonight, but it may not be until late. This game has a smaller chance than Baltimore, so we should be fine here. As always, double check closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies – Ah yes, Coors Field. Every offensive category is favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, Kauffman favored all categories except home runs.
  • Marlins Park – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park ranks as our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, no offensive categories were favored here.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Atlanta Braves vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium is our second worst ballpark tonight. Last season, home runs were the only category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Jeff Samardzija.919.293Matt Andriese.508.165
Alex Meyer.877.231Robbie Ray.509.209
Vince Velasquez.873.271Gio Gonzalez.576.220

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Mike Fiers1.217.329Chris Sale.480.174
Zach Davies.989.364Jeff Samardzija.549.211
Bartolo Colon.963.357Ivan Nova.616.244

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Manny MachadoLuis Severino114.72
Salvador PerezJustin Verlander522.44

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – BOS vs. CWS – $13,400 – If there was ever a reason to play a player because of some narrative, tonight would be that night. Chris Sale will be facing his former team, the White Sox, and he will most certainly have a chip on his shoulder. It’s been well documented that Sale has a certain disdain for this team and it’s management and what better way to get back at them than pitching a gem. Sale hasn’t been as dominant as he was in April, but he still hasn’t posted a game with lower than 22 fantasy points. Sale snapped his double-digit strikeout steak last time out but still managed six through 7.1 innings against the Rangers.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Nolan Arenado – COL vs. SEA – $5,400 – Arenado has smashed lefties at home this season and with the Rockies predicted at six runs, how can you not be enticed? As you would expect, Arenado has been a monster at home against lefties, posting a .506 wOBA with a .815 SLG with three of his 12 home runs. Facing a pitcher that has allowed eight of his 10 home runs against righties, you don’t have much to hate about this matchup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ryan Schimpf – SD vs. CHC – $3,600 – Schimpf continues to be overlooked on a nightly basis, but who can blame us? Playing on the Padres doesn’t exactly get fantasy players excited, but $3,600 is going to get you a player with 13 home runs on the season. Eddie Butler has only pitched in three games thus far, but he’s allowing a 44% hard hit rate. Schimpf owns a .327 wOBA at home against righties with a .345 OBP. It’s a bit of risky play, but if you need to save some salary tonight, Schimpf gives you some pop.

Stack Em Up

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers (Nick Martinez) – Getting away from the more obvious stacks, the Rays are one of my favorites for tonight. The Rays have been one of the best hitting clubs on the road this season with a .324 wOBA to go with a .428 SLG and a .324 OBP. Martinez has been good at home thus far, but that’s been against the A’s, Angels and Royals. I believe his road numbers tell the real story here. The Rays could go overlooked, and I think they can go off.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.