With a full 15 game slate on tap for Sunday, we have so much information to get to in this article. Let’s jump into all the information and as always, you can get at me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-207) vs. PHI – John Lackey – I was a bit surprised to see the Cubs were the favorite on the day. Offensively, they’ve been slipping a bit, as players like Anthony Rizzo are in the midst of a horrific slump. Nonetheless, I am certainly ok with the matchup for Lackey going up against the Phillies. Lackey has been fantastic lately, averaging 23.4 FPPG over his last five games. The Phillies continue to struggle offensively against righties, owning a .286 wOBA with a .293 OBP and a .365 SLG. Lackey is one of four pitchers on this afternoon slate that will cost over $11,000, so getting one of these guys in your lineup is certainly going to be a bit of a challenge. Getting Lackey at home is certainly something I want to go with, as he’s averaging 24.8 points over four home starts.
LAD (-190) vs. NYM – Clayton Kershaw – No surprise here with the Dodgers and Kershaw favored in this one. Kershaw comes into this start averaging 23.6 FPPG on the road in five starts, owning a 1.50 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.2 on the road. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the entire day at $13,900, which is $900 more than Chris Sale. Kershaw is coming off a complete game against the Reds where he allowed no runs on two hits with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. He’s the most dominate pitcher in the game and should have no problem racking up the K’s against a Mets team that ranks second in K% against lefties at 27.2%.
SFG vs COL – 10.5 runs – Even with Johnny Cueto on the mound, Coors Field still has a projected total of 10.5 runs for today. For what it’s worth, Cueto has pitched five games at Coors Field and has done quite well. In those five starts, Cueto owns a 2.61 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, pitching 31 innings allowing nine runs on 27 hits with a 6.7 K/9. For a place like this, those are some pretty solid numbers. Cueto has been fantastic for the Giants, coming off his second complete game shutout in a row against the Padres. Even though Coors Field is usually an unforgiving ballpark, Cueto is intriguing with how we’ll he’s pitched in the past. As always though, with what Coors Field can do to pitchers, it would be smart to have some exposure to this one from the hitting side. A GPP stack of the COL would be a nice contrarian way to handle this game.
LAD vs NYM (Citi Field) – This game could feature some rain later on in the night. It should have no problem starting, but we could see a delay midway through the game. I would most certainly keep an eye on this one, as the weather could limit how long Kershaw is on the mound.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – SFG vs COL Now that we’ve fully switched over to the 2016 numbers for Park Factors, you’ll be seeing some different parks pop up here, unless of course, it’s Coors Field, which favors every offensive category for hitters.
- Globe Life Park – PIT vs TEX – Globe Life Park has favorable ratings for hitters in every offensive category except walks thus far in 2016.
- Oakland Coliseum – DET vs OAK – Currently ranked the second worst park in the league in 2016, the Coliseum only has a favorable rating in triples so far this season.
- Tropicana Field – NYY vs TBR – 2016 has not been very kind when hitting at Tropicana Field. Thus far this season, it does not have a single category favoring hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Pelfrey||.993||.388||Clayton Kershaw||.318||.129|
|Doug Fister||.908||.304||Chris Sale||.357||.146|
|Tom Koehler||.881||.320||Martin Perez||.456||.159|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Pelfrey||.905||.305||Clayton Kershaw||. 461||.183|
|Michael Wacha||.827||.317||Julio Teheran||.513||.199|
|Ricky Nolasco||.800||.304||Doug Fister||.525||.175|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Brian McCann||Jake Odorizzi||20||4.6|
|Jay Bruce||Jimmy Nelson||17||3.23|
|Jose Bautista||David Price||52||2.5|
- Brian McCann has absolutely crushed Jake Odorizzi when these two have faced off against each other. McCann is 12-20 with three doubles, a triple, three home runs and 10 RBIs. Whew.
- Jay Bruce hasn’t faced Jimmy Nelson a ton, but he’s made it count when he does. Bruce is 7-17 with three doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.
- One person who I don’t think was very upset to see Price leave the Blue Jays was Bautista. In his career, he’s 18-52 against Price with four doubles, five home runs, 12 RBIs and seven walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs NYM – $13,900 I know it’s the obvious choice on the all-day slate/night slate, but it just has to be him tonight. With the Mets owning the second highest K% against lefties in the league, how can you pass up Kershaw with a matchup like this? If you follow me on Twitter, I’ve been talking about how I hate paying up for a pitcher that costs in excess of $12K, with Kershaw being the exception. He’s basically automatic at this point and tonight should be no exception. On the road, Kerhsaw owns a 10.2 K/9 with a 0.90 BB/9 and an overall K% of 30.9%! In a pitcher friendly park like Citi Field, you’ll have to make Kershaw work.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper – WAS vs. STL (Michael Wacha) – $5,000 – Wacha has really been struggling with lefties on the road this season, so could you think of a worse matchup for him than Bryce Harper? On the road this season, Wacha is allowing a .364 wOBA to opposing lefties with a .380 OBP. Walks have been another issue for Wacha, with a 4.22 BB/9 on the road. Even with Harper struggling a bit this season, he owns a .408 wOBA against righties at home with a .607 SLG. Paying up for Harper is something I most certainly will be doing.
Save Big by Drafting…
Melky Cabrera – CHW vs. KCR (Edinson Volquez) – $3,300 – I love taking guys like Cabrera because he’s just always consistent. He doesn’t cost you a ton of money, but he gets on base and gets on base a lot. Owning a .360 OBP coming into today, Cabrera is averaging 8.8 FPPG over his last 10 games as he’s 11-38 in that span with two doubles, a triple, two home runs, and 10 RBIs. Being a switch-hitter also further brings up his value on a night-to-night basis. On a day where saving money will most certainly be key, Cabrera is a great option in the outfield to save some salary.
Stack Em Up
OAK vs. DET (Mike Pelfrey) – Oakland may not be the most exciting team to stack; they might not even be the best option today as a whole. However, if you’re looking to roster some of the expensive pitchers on the day, an Oakland stack suddenly becomes a viable option to fit those pitchers in. With facing Mike Pelfrey who is allowing a .381 wOBA on the road with a .421 wOBA to lefties and .386 against righties, the A’s have a perfect opportunity to fly under the radar and grab some points here.