Friday night brings us a huge 14-game slate that features Coors Field. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres – Max Scherzer ($12,700) – No surprise here that Scherzer is the heavy favorite as he takes on the Padres. Facing one of the worst offenses in the league, Scherzer owns a .298 wOBA with a .381 SLG and a 12.9 K/9 in four starts at Nationals Park. His salary doesn’t scare me off with this matchup on tap, but we do have A LOT of solid pitchers taking the mound tonight in good matchups. Scherzer has been hit slightly hard as of late, allowing a 33% hard hit rate and a batted ball distance of 218 ft over his last three starts. While that would make me a bit iffy on him when you figure in his salary, the strikeout upside is huge, making Scherzer one of, if not the top option tonight.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies – 10.5 projected runs – The Cardinals and Rockies start a series at Coors Field tonight with the Cardinals as the favorites. They’re projected at 5.6 runs tonight against Antonio Senzatela. He’s been decent at home (for Coors Field at least) averaging 12 FPPG at home with a .322 wOBA and a .435 SLG. The Cardinals have hit well on the road, posting a .313 wOBA with a .412 SLG and a .326 OBP. With the decent road numbers coupled with the fact that Senzatela has allowed a 38% hard hit rate to opposing hitters with a batted ball distance of 222 ft, the Cardinals should make a fine stack tonight.
Clear night of baseball for tonight!
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies – Ah yes, the return of Coors Field. Every offensive category is favored here.
- Progressive Field – Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians – Progressive Field is our second most favorable ballpark on the slate tonight. Every offensive category was favored here last season except triples.
- Dodger Stadium – Chicago Cubs vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium was the worst ballpark for offense last season. No offensive category was favored here in 2016.
- Minute Maid Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second least favorable ballpark for offense tonight. In 2016, triples were the only favored category.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Hector Santiago||1.491||.500||Alex Wood||.524||.204|
|Luis Perdomo||1.084||.403||Dan Straily||.571||.173|
|Chad Kuhl||1.019||.333||Jaime Garcia||.584||.211|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Masahiro Tanaka||1.056||.337||Alex Wood||.491||.189|
|Kevin Gausman||1.032||.388||Max Scherzer||.494||.139|
|Joe Musgrove||.926||.302||Aaron Nola||.542||.231|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Dustin Pedroia||Yovani Gallardo||18||3|
|Albert Pujols||Dan Straily||18||2.66|
|Mike Trout||Dan Straily||19||2.42|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Scherzer – WAS vs. SD – $12,700 – We have a ton of big-name pitchers taking the hill tonight, but Scherzer sticks out the most. His matchup against a Padres team that owns just a .298 wOBA against righties with the second highest K% at 24.5 makes it hard to leave Scherzer on the board. The strikeout potential is the biggest attraction here, as he’s reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his nine starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in all but one game. As I mentioned earlier, the hard-hit rate does concern me a bit, but it’s hard to be worried about a team that owns only a .689 OPS.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Charlie Blackmon – COL vs. STL – $5,500 – It’s hard to stay away from a hitter that posts an average of 12.4 FPPG in 23 home starts. Blackmon returns to Coors Field tonight with an attractive matchup on tap. He’ll take on Carlos Martinez, who has always struggled against lefties while manning the leadoff spot for the Rox. Martinez owns a .454 wOBA against lefties on the road thus far with a .548 SLG with two of his seven home runs allowed. Martinez has allowed the majority of his home runs to lefties in his career, while Blackmon has hit seven of his 11 at home this season.
Save Big by Drafting…
George Springer – HOU vs. BAL – $3,600 – I saw $3,600 for Springer, and I did a double take to make sure I read that right. His salary has dropped over the past two days, peaking at $4,300 just a few days ago. Granted, he’s not tearing the cover off the ball, but it seems awfully cheap for him. He’ll visit Camden Yards this weekend and gets a matchup against the struggling Kevin Gausman, who’s allowed a .495 wOBA to righties on the road with a .714 SLG and three of his seven home runs. Gausman has been hit hard lately, allowing a 41% hard contact rate over his last three starts.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.