A five game slate is on tap for tonight. Let’s jump into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
BOS (-165) vs. COL – Clay Buchholz – The Red Sox are once again the heaviest favorite, taking on the Rockies. It’s not even a joke anymore about how well this Red Sox team performs at home, it’s some serious numbers. At Fenway Park, the Red Sox lead the league in wOBA, SLG, OBP and OPS. Keep in mind these numbers INCLUDE the Rockies playing at Coors Field. Even with Clay Buchholz on the mound, the Red Sox are scoring so much that it almost doesn’t matter how poorly their starting rotation performs, as they’ve consistently been putting up double digit runs. Even on this short slate, I don’t know how inclined I am to trust Buchholz in this spot as the right-handed pitcher is only averaging 7.2 FPPG in six home games this season.
COL vs. BOS – 9.5 runs – Once again, the highest projected run total of the night belongs to the Red Sox and Rockies. In the first two games of this series, both they teams have put up a combined 24 runs, with the Red Sox owning the majority of it with 18 of those. Clay Buchholz on the mound will certainly help out the Rockies, as he’s allowing a .363 wOBA at home in 35 innings. Buchholz has also allowed six home runs at Fenway Park after only allowing three all of last season in his home park.
For the Rockies, Jon Gray will take the mound in this one. He’s been fantastic on the road, at least until his last start against the Cardinals. Gray posted an -11.7 score in that start, going 3.1 innings allowing nine runs on eight hits with a 3:3 K:BB ratio. I have a feeling we might see a similar result here tonight as well, as the road starts that Gray has succeeded in have come against middle of the road teams. If Gray pitches anything like his last start, we could see some serious crooked numbers on the board.
STL vs WAS (Nationals Park) – With only five games on this slate, we certainly don’t need any weather concerns, but that’s a reality here. This game features a chance of thunderstorms starting right around game time and will last throughout the night. This could end up being a problem.
CHW vs KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – Of these two games, I feel like this has the better chance of getting PPD. The weather report is calling for thunderstorms outright, not even just saying it has a chance. I would avoid this one if the forecast doesn’t shape up soon.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Fenway Park – COL vs BOS Coors Field East gets the nod as the best park for hitters tonight. In 2015, Fenway Park favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples last season.
- Kauffman Stadium – CHW vs KCR – If they can somehow squeeze this game in, Kauffman ranks as the second friendliest park for hitters tonight. Ranked 11th overall last season, this gave a boost to hitters in runs, doubles and triples.
- Minute Maid Park – BAL vs HOU – Ranked 22nd overall last season, Minute Maid Park ranks as the worst park on the slate. Last season it only favored home runs and triples.
- Turner Field – MIL vs ATL – By process of elimination, Turner Field checks in as the second worst park for hitters tonight. Overall, it wasn’t horrible, ranked 18th last season. Turner Field only favored hitters with walks last season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Wily Peralta||.924||.321||Kevin Gausman||.352||.132|
|Clay Buchholz||.908||.310||Matt Wisler||.595||.198|
|Lance McCullers||.890||.294||Mike Leake||.652||.184|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Wily Peralta||1.067||.396||Matt Wisler||.597||.213|
|Miguel Gonzalez||.859||.308||Joe Ross||.599||.213|
|Kevin Gausman||.846||.302||Clay Buchholz||.689||.214|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Mark Reynolds||Clay Buchholz||15||2.86|
|Jose Abreu||Danny Duffy||19||2.1|
|Salvador Perez||Miguel Gonzalez||14||1.85|
- As I always say, short slate of games usually means a short list of viable BvP stats. Mark Reynolds against Clay Buchholz is a good one though. Reynolds is 5-15 with a double, two home runs, three RBIs and three walks.
- Jose Abreu hasn’t been hitting the ball as well as he can, but he’s facing someone he’s hit in the past. Abreu is 7-19 against Duffy with a double, a home run, two RBIs and three walks.
- To cap it off, Salvador Perez is 5-14 off of Gonzalez the a home run and two RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Matt Wisler – ATL vs MIL – $9,100 Wisler has been someone I’ve been targeting his past three or four starts now. He has some solid stuff and has been quietly pitching extremely well. Being stuck on the Braves will certainly limit your exposure to the rest of the world. Facing the Brewers, who have the highest K% against right-handed pitching at 27.6, Wisler has a real shot at putting up a solid score tonight. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, owning a 6.3 K/9 on the season, but facing the Brewers can boost that K/9 up for anyone. Wisler feels like the safest option on a night of slim picks.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Carlos Correa – HOU vs. BAL (Kevin Gausman) – $4,000 – This is quite cheap for Correa tonight, who is in the midst of going through the motions. Correa was in a bit of a slump earlier this month, but he’s been showing flashes over the past 10 games that he’s starting to come out of it. Essentially, he’s either posting a monster game or a complete dud lately. He faces Kevin Gasuman tonight, who is getting crushed by righties, owning a .365 wOBA. Correa is still hitting righties well, and I think with the combination of Gasuman’s struggles and Correa being as cheap as he is, it makes Correa quite valuable in this spot.
Save Big by Drafting…
Gordon Beckham – ATL vs. MIL (Wily Peralta) – $2,600 – It’s a short slate tonight, so what’s wrong with recommending someone that is on the Braves?! Believe it or not, Beckham has been hitting well, averaging 6.8 FPPG over his last 10 and batting .310 overall with an .853 OPS. The Braves face off against Wily Peralta, who has the ability to make any team, including the Braves, look like offensive juggernauts. At $2,600, believe me, you could do much worse at higher prices.
Stack Em Up
BOS vs. COL (Jon Gray) – If I have to explain why, you didn’t pay attention to anything I said at the top of this article, so go read that again.