We have a short eight game slate on tap tonight after a big afternoon slate of baseball. Tonight is going to be a bit of a challenge to roster some pitching, so I’ll do my best to set you up with some of the best match ups for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
BOS (-172) vs. COL – Steve Wright – Boston is once again favored over Colorado in a game that I deem as “Coors Field East.” Steven Wright will take the mound in this one. Wright recently had a rough start against the Astros, posting a -0.9 score, but he bounced back very nicely after that, posting 22.9 score against the Royals. In that start against the Royals, Wright pitched eight innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 6:1 K:BB ratio. The Rockies haven’t been very impressive on the road, and at this point, Wright has been pitching so well that it’s hard to go against him. Wright is the most “expensive” pitcher on the night at $8,800, so you should have no problem fitting him in if you’re interested.
SEA (-171) vs. OAK – Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has not been very good at home this season. In three games, Iwakuma owns a 6.23 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and a 8.3 K/9. In 17.1 innings, Iwakuma has allowed 12 runs on 24 hits with a 16:4 K:BB ratio. Oakland isn’t the most intimidating team to face, but the numbers for Iwakuma have to be concerning. On the other hand, in a similar park, Iwakuma has faced the A’s already pitching seven innings allowing one run on four hits with a 3:2 K:BB ratio. That’s the problem with facing this A’s team… they don’t strikeout much. Even on this short slate, Iwakuma doesn’t feel very appealing, and I think I’d be looking elsewhere.
BOS vs. COL – 9.5 runs – As I mentioned, “Coors Field East” checks in with the highest run total of the night. We’ve gone into Steven Wright already, now we take a quick look at Chad Bettis for the Rockies. On the road this season, Bettis is averaging 13.6 FPPG with some shaky control, as he owns a 25:10 K:BB ratio. Home runs have ironically been the issue on the road, as Bettis hasn’t let up a home run at home, but a total of six on the road. Unlike some of the other Rockies pitchers, Bettis doesn’t improve drastically on the road and realistically has a good chance of getting roasted by this Sox team that continues to mash at home. As always, it’s not a bad idea to have some exposure to this game.
COL vs BOS (Fenway Park) – This game doesn’t have any rain concerns, but they will have an 11 mph wind blowing out to right field. Not that it needed any more advantages for the hitters.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Fenway Park – COL vs BOS Coors Field East gets the nod as the best park for hitters tonight. In 2015, Fenway Park favored hitters in runs, singles doubles and triples last season.
- Yankee Stadium – TOR vs NYY – Pretty sure this is the first time we’ve seen Yankee Stadium make this list. In 2015, it was ranked the 10th overall best park for hitters. It had a favorable rating in runs, home runs and walks last season.
- Safeco Field – OAK vs SEA – As one of the worst overall parks for hitters, Safeco gets the nod as the worst park on this slate. It did not have a single category favoring hitters in 2015.
- Dodger Stadium – CIN vs LAD – Quite the disadvantage for the Reds in this one, as they leave one of the most favorable parks for hitters. Last season, Dodger Stadium only favored home runs, and that was at the bare minimum score of 1.000.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Foltynewicz||1.171||.371||Justin Nicolino||.382||.136|
|Collin McHugh||.874||.299||Rubby De La Rosa||.536||.162|
|Hisashi Iwakuma||.735||.283||Steven Wright||.573||.173|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jeff Locke||.892||.291||Marco Estrada||.542||.181|
|Collin McHugh||.851||.344||Steven Wright||.580||.220|
|Hisashi Iwakuma||.825||.284||Rubby De La Rosa||.671||.216|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Jose Bautista||Ivan Nova||23||2.82|
|Starlin Castro||Marco Estrada||27||2.03|
|Coco Crisp||Hisashi Iwakuma||19||2|
- Short slate means short list of good BvP. Bautista against Nova isn’t a bad one though, as Bautista has gone 8-23 with three doubles, a home run, seven RBIs and seven walks.
- Next we have Starlin Castro against Marco Estrada. Castro is 12-27 with four doubles, a triple and two RBIs. Not that great, but hey, short slate!
- Finally, we have Coco Crisp against Hisashi Iwakuma. Crisp is 4-19 with a double, two home runs and two RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Steven Wright – BOS vs COL – $8,800 No one on this slate jumps out at you as a safe option, and thus here we are. Wright has been the most consistent on this slate, and he’s been good at home as well. He faces a Rockies team that owns a .308 wOBA away from Coors Field and a 20.5 K%. Wright isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but he does own a 7.8 K/9 through eight starts this season. With no true ace or number one on this slate, Wright feels like the best of the bunch.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Ryan Braun – MIL vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – $4,400 – In the grand scheme of things, Braun at $4,400 is a steal. $4,400 for a guy who is batting .360 with seven home runs, 28 RBIs, a .990 OPS and is averaging 9.5 FPPG. That is quite the production for someone who is under $5,000. Braun takes on Folty tonight, who is allowing a .342 career wOBA against right-handed batters. Folty is no stranger for letting the ball fly either, with a career 1.77 HR/9. Braun feels like a fine play tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Taylor Motter – TBR vs. MIA (Justin Nicolino) – $3,300 – The first thing you have to like about Motter is that he’s eligible at two different positions, third base and shortstop. That gives you some nice flexibility. Second, he’s only played in a handful of games so far so we don’t have a ton to go off of him with. In those six games, he’s batting .308 with two home runs and five RBIs. He faces off with Justin Nicolino, who is allowing a .338 wOBA to righties with three home runs allowed.
Stack Em Up
BAL vs. HOU (Collin McHugh) – Even with McHugh pitching better lately, I don’t trust him, especially against an offense like the Orioles. On the season, McHugh is allowing a .373 wOBA against lefties and a .365 against righties. Overall at home, he stands with a .369 wOBA with a .512 SLG. The Orioles have a .335 wOBA against righties on the road this season with a .204 ISO and a .313 OBP. I have a hard to believing that McHugh will be able to shut this offense down tonight. With this slate, everyone is truly an options because of the pricing, you should have no problem getting an Orioles stack together.