WATCH: STACK TO CONSIDER SAN DIEGO PADRES


Wednesday night brings us a 10 game slate of baseball to analyze. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers – Chris Sale ($13,500) – Sale is a MASSIVE favorite tonight as he takes on the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park. Sale has reached double-digit strikeouts in all but one of his starts this season and owns a 12.6 K/9 in five home starts. The Rangers own the fourth-highest K% against lefties this season at 24.8%, so I think we have a good idea of what’s going to take place here tonight. The Rangers are also one of the worst offensive clubs in the league against lefties, posting a .291 wOBA against them with a .302 OBP and a .364 SLG. Sale hasn’t been perfect, however, as his batted ball distance has reached 236ft over his last three starts. It’s worth something for sure, but at this point, Sale has come through in every single start this year.

Highest Total

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals – 9.5 projected runs – The Nationals are the owners of the highest projected run total tonight as they take on the Mariners. Sam Gaviglio will be making his second start in the majors, coming off five shutout innings against the White Sox. He’ll face his toughest task yet against the Nationals, who rank as the best hitting ballclub at home in the majors. Washington owns a .375 wOBA with a .372 OBP and a .519 SLG and a low 18.8 K%.

Weather Concerns

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs (Wrigley Field) – There is a small chance of rain here tonight, but it doesn’t look like it will be anything disruptive. I’d check before game time, but it seems as if you shouldn’t be overly worried.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park checks in our most favorable park for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories except walks were favored here.
  • SunTrust Park – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park checks in as our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, runs, singles and walks were all favored here.
  • Dodger Stadium – St. Louis Cardinals vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium was the worst ballpark for offense last season. No offensive category was favored here in 2016.
  • Minute Maid Park – Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight as the Astros host the Tigers. In 2016, triples were the only favored category.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Martin Perez953.385Jeremy Hellickson.572.175
Julio Teheran.931.287Mike Leake.602.231
Daniel Norris.909.278Luis Severino.610.202

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jason Hammel1.054.387Chris Sale.453.168
Robert Gsellman1.000.360Tanner Roark.535.228
Ricky Nolasco.897.275Mike Leake.610.206

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Rickie WeeksRicky Nolasco242.54
Jean SeguraTanner Roark112.54

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – BOS vs. TEX – $13,500 – I can’t even pretend that Sale isn’t one of the top options on this slate when he’s averaging 32.2 FPPG in his first nine starts. As I mentioned, Sale has double-digit strikeouts in his last eight games and faces one of the highest strikeout-prone teams against lefties in the league tonight. I will say, I do have a bit of concern with how hard opposing hitters have been hitting against him lately, but even on a night where he allowed four runs to the Twins, he ended with 24.7 DK points. The strikeouts will be here tonight, so let’s hope he can minimize the damage in between.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Hanley Ramirez – BOS vs. TEX – $4,600 – I remember last season, if Ramirez was facing a left-handed pitcher at Fenway Park, it didn’t matter his salary, I fit him in my lineup. The reason being? Ramirez owned a .541 wOBA in those matchup with a .853 SLG and a .467 OBP with eight of his 30 home runs. He’s only had nine plate appearances in this matchup thus far, so I’m more than ok with going off of last year’s numbers.

Save Big by Drafting…

Wil Myers – SD vs. NYM – $3,800 – Myers is awfully cheap tonight with a favorable matchup to boot. He’ll take on Robert Gsellman, who is allowing a .376 wOBA at home and a .461 wOBA against righties with three of his five home runs. Myers has been his best on the road, posting a .408 wOBA on the road against righties with a .711 SLG.

Stack Em Up

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals (Jason Hammel) – This is not the Jason Hammel you know from last year. Hammel has been a train wreck this season and on the road, he’s been at his worst. As he heads to Yankee Stadium tonight, Hammel brings his .402 road wOBA with a .508 SLG and .436 OBP. The Yankees roughed him up in his last start at Kauffman Stadium, tagging him for five runs on nine hits in six innings of work.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.