We have almost a full game slate on tap tonight with some great pitching match ups. I’ll do my best to get you all the info you need! As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @Sbuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

BOS (-212) vs. COL – David Price – It seems as if Price has finally figured out what was holding him back earlier this season, and now he’s pitching like the ace we know. Over his last two starts against the Astros and the Royals, Price has gone 14 innings allowing three runs on 11 hits with a 17:2 K:BB ratio. His price is still reflecting when he was struggling, so at $8,900 tonight, he’s a steal. He takes on the Rockies who own a .308 wOBA on the road and a 20.5 K%. I suspect Price will be extremely popular tonight, so be aware on building your lineups.

SFG (-200) vs. SDP – Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija is another pitcher that seems to have found his former self. He’s been fantastic both on the road and at home owning a 2.66 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP with a 7.6 K/9. He takes on the Padres tonight who continue to show how putrid they are as a team. After being shut out by Johnny Cueto last night, the Padres now on the lowest wOBA in the league against righties at .265 with a 24.9 K% which ranks 4th in the league. They’re starting to become the major league punching bag and I have no doubt Samardzija should have a solid outing in this one. In two starts against the Padres this season, Samardzija has seen mixed results, allowing a run in his last start against them in eight innings and five runs his first time facing them in 5.2 innings.

Highest Totals

LAA vs TEX – 10 runs – The only double digit projected run total of the night, the Angels send Jhoulys Chacin to the mound to take on Martin Perez of the Rangers. As I’ve mentioned before with Perez, he hasn’t been pitching poorly this season, he just doesn’t grab a ton of fantasy points. Averaging 11.3 per start, Perez has pitched much better at home than on the road. With the Angels only owning a .297 wOBA against lefties, I question how much damage they’ll actually be able to inflict here.

With Chacin, he’s pitched six games on the road this season, owning a 4.81 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. The Rangers haven’t exactly been crushing the ball against right-handed pitchers, owning a .309 wOBA with a .402 SLG. To be quite honest, I don’t see where all these runs will be coming from, as we have two offenses that aren’t exactly killing the ball right now.

Weather Concerns

LAA vs TEX (Globe Life Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms that will come after first pitch. This will be worth monitoring as we get close to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any offensive category at or above 1.000 favor hitters. Anything below that mark favor pitchers.

  • Fenway Park – COL vs BOS – Coors Field West meets Coors Field East in this matchup. Last season, Fenway favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Globe Life Park – LAA vs TEX – Going from one of the worst hitting ballpark to the best, the Angels visit Globe Life Park. Last season, this park favored hitters in every category except triples.
  • AT&T Park – SDP vs. SFG – Back to AT&T Park, the worst ballpark for hitters last season. In 2015, it only favored hitters in triples.
  • Safeco Field – OAK vs SEA – Safeco Field is not exactly the ballpark you go to when you’re looking for offense. Last season, Safeco didn’t have a single offensive category that favored hitters.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Matt Harvey1.001.364Chris Sale.357.146
Shelby Miller.984.333Stephen Strasburg.482.182
Nathan Eovaldi.921.297Martin Perez.509.179

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Andrew Cashner1.020.343Chris Sale.476.166
Kendal Graveman.950.320Doug Fister.512.179
Francisco Liriano.838.271Julio Teheran.514.205

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jarrod SaltalamacchiaJeremy Hellickson253.04
Hanley RamirezJorge De La Rosa282.82
Austin JacksonJosh Tomlin162.81

  • We’ve been seeing some much better BvP lately, and today is no different. We start off with Salty and the damage he’s done to Hellickson. Salty is 8-25 with three doubles, three home runs, five RBIs and five walks.
  • Next, Hanley Ramirez takes on Jorge De La Rosa. Ramirez is 11-28 with five doubles, two home runs, five RBIs and six walks.
  • Finally, Austin Jackson takes on Josh Tomlin. Jackson is 7-16 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and two RBIs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – CLE vs. CHW – $13,800 – I tried, I tried to slot someone else into this spot for today, and I just couldn’t do it. It’s truly amazing that Sale is doing what he’s doing while seeing such a drastic dip in his strikeouts. On the season, Sale owns an 8.1 K/9, which for the most part is fine. But when his career sits at 10.1, we’re seeing a major difference. Whatever he’s doing, it’s working as he’s averaging 29.8 FPPG with a 0.60 WHIP at home. This Indians team owns one of the worst wOBAs against left-handed pitchers at .295, which ranks 24th in the league to go with a 21.9 K%. Like Kershaw last night, Sale is extremely pricey, but working him into your lineup may be essential tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts – BOS vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – $5,200 – Can’t say this is a very ideal spot for De La Rosa to be activated off of the DL from. He comes into this matchup against a Red Sox team that owns a .380 wOBA at home with a .506 SLG and a .377 OBP. One of the big factors in these numbers has been Xander Bogaerts, who has been crushing left-handed bats. On the season, Bogaerts has a .479 wOBA against lefties with a .708 SLG and 1.153 OPS. In a stack I love tonight, the Red Sox should have their way with De La Rosa.

Save Big by Drafting…

John Jaso – PIT vs. ARZ (Shelby Miller) – $3,700 – Getting Jaso on your roster is tough. Not because of his price, but I personally have a hard time being okay with slotting him in my fist base position. I have a feeling a LOT of us feel that way with how heavy that position is. And yet, he’s in a good matchup tonight, so he deserves a look. Taking on Shelby Miller at Chase Field, Jaso owns .368 wOBA against righties with a .471 SLG. Miller has been struggling immensely against lefties, especially at home, owning a .473 wOBA with a SLG of .618.

Stack Em Up

BOS vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – De La Rosa is historically a decent pitcher on the road. I mean, pitching at Coors Field will do that to you. But against this Red Sox team in what I’ve called “Coors Field East” I don’t like this spot for him. I like this stack because I feel many people will be going high on pitching tonight, which will keep these Red Sox low owned on the night. You can grab someone like Daniel Wright at $4,800 who is making his major league debut and has looked fantastic in his time, and pair him with a high priced pitcher and get a Red Sox stack in. It’s very doable and one that I think a lot of people will be passing up.