A massive 15-game slate is on the docket tonight. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Clayton Kershaw ($13,400) – Kershaw takes on the Cardinals at Dodger Stadium tonight and is a huge favorite. The Cardinals have struggled against lefties this season, posting a .302 wOBA with a .368 SLG and a 22.2 K%, which ranks as the 10th highest in the league. As you’d expect, Kershaw has dominated at home, averaging 27.8 FPPG in four starts with a K/9 of 9.8. As expected, he’ll likely be very popular on the night, but it could jump to even higher percentages if the weather is as bad as it’s anticipated to be.

Highest Total

Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 11 projected runs – No, this game isn’t taking place at Coors Field. Instead, it’s Dylan Covey taking the mound for the White Sox, shooting the D-Backs to a 6.4 implied run total on the night. In case you haven’t heard or seen, Covey has been a complete nightmare on the mound this season, averaging just 3.3 DK fantasy points in SEVEN starts. Five of those starts have come on the road, where he averages -0.3 fantasy points. How did he get to that point? Well, in 27 innings, Covey has allowed 25 runs on 39 hits with nine home runs and an 8:11 K: BB ratio. This will likely be the most popular stack on the night, and you may just need to roster a couple of D-Backs just to keep up.

Weather Concerns

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – This game should start at the normal time, but rain will come in during the middle innings of the game and could potentially cause a delay. Depending on what time the rain rolls in, pitching in this game could be risky.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs (Wrigley Field) – Chicago will feature rain the entire night and could be in danger of being postponed. If you’re looking to target this game, you’ll certainly want to check the weather closer to game time.

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals (Nationals Park) – Another game which should start on time, but the possibility of a delay is very real here. Keep an eye on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is home to our most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
  • Fenway Park – Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park checks in as our second most favorable park for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories except walks were favored here.
  • Dodger Stadium – St. Louis Cardinals vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium was the worst ballpark for offense last season. No offensive category was favored here in 2016.
  • Minute Maid Park – Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second least favorable ballpark tonight as they host the Tigers. In 2016, triples were the only favored category.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Tyler Glasnow.986.309Ervin Santana.482.148
Lance Lynn.959.289Patrick Corbin.594.196
Jordan Montgomery.948.250Danny Duffy.596.200

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Dylan Covey1.190.368Lance Lynn.434.133
Jordan Zimmermann.918.306Carlos Carrasco.487.172
Tyler Glasnow.891.282Clayton Kershaw.512.192

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Buster PoseyJon Lester162.25
Jon JayJohnny Cueto382.15

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance McCullers – HOU vs. DET – $10,200 – If you don’t want to pay up for Kershaw tonight, McCullers could be your go to. He’ll take on the Tigers in Houston tonight, where he’s been very successful in four starts. McCullers is averaging 26.8 FPPG with a .275 wOBA, a .351 SLG and a K/9 of 12.1. On the road, the Tigers own a .298 wOBA with a .305 OBP and a .378 SLG with a 25.1 K%, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league. McCullers saves you $3,200 vs. Kershaw on the night.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. CWS – $5,400 – Goldy has been crushing right-handed pitching at home this season, so I can’t imagine him not performing against Covey tonight. Coming into this game against right-handed pitching, Goldy owns a .528 wOBA with a .494 OBP and a .781 SLG with six of his 11 home runs. Covey has given up nine home runs on the road with six of them against righties. 

Save Big by Drafting…

Josh Reddick – HOU vs. DET – $3,600 – Reddick continues to find his way in my lineups as of late, and he’ll be occupying a spot tonight as well. He’ll take on Jordan Zimmermann, who has been blasted by left-handed batters. Zimm has allowed a .396 wOBA to them with a .566 SLG and a .378 OBP with five of his 11 home runs surrendered. As you’d expect, Reddick has done well at home against righties, owner of a .449 wOBA with a .661 SLG and a .415 OBP.

Stack Em Up

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey) – How can I go against this matchup for the Diamondbacks? They are an extremely difficult stack to pass on, but if you do want to mix it up, the Astros are another stack I like tonight against Zimmermann.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.