WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS – MARK REYNOLDS
We kick off the week with a nine-game slate tonight. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox – Zack Greinke ($12,000) – Zack Greinke is the most expensive pitcher on this slate and is also the heavy favorite. He’ll be pitching at home against one of the worst offenses in the league, the Chicago White Sox. Chase Field used to be a house of horrors for Greinke, but he’s been solid here thus far, averaging 22.2 DK fantasy points in six starts with a .267 wOBA and a .391 SLG. The White Sox on the road own a .303 wOBA with a .298 OBP and a .403 SLG with a K% of 20.7. Greinke could be popular tonight, and I can’t imagine him not pulling out another great performance at home.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs – 10 projected runs – The Cubs are the favorites in this one, as they have an implied team run total 5.9. SFG starter Ty Blach has pitched the majority of his starts at home, with only one road start under his belt. The Cubs are one of the best hitting clubs against lefties this season, posting a .342 wOBA with a with a .363 OBP and a .431 SLG. With Blach relying on contact for getting outs, he could indeed run into trouble in this start tonight, even with it being at Wrigley Field.
While the focus will most certainly be on the Cubs tonight, it’s worth nothing that John Lackey will be taking the hill. He hasn’t exactly pitched well at Wrigley this season, averaging just 10.8 FPPG in four home starts with a .384 wOBA and a .570 SLG with seven of his 10 home runs allowed. I don’t love the Giants tonight, but I think they could be a sneaky GPP stack.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Field) – This game could see some rain, as the threat will be all throughout the night. We could see a delay here at some point, but the heaviest should be after the game has ended.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs (Wrigley Field) – This game will also have a threat of rain that could push a delay during the night. I don’t think we’ll see a PPD here, but pitchers could be a bit risky. Be sure to check this game closer to first pitch.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Chase Field – Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is home to our most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
- SunTrust Park – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Field is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters on this nine-game slate. Last season, runs, singles and walks were favored here.
- Minute Maid Park – Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight as the Astros host the Tigers. In 2016, triples were the only favored category.
- Citizens Bank Park – Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies – The Rockies will visit one of the worst offensive parks in the league tonight. Last season, home runs were the only category favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||1.088||.274||Michael Fulmer||.430||.159|
|Kyle Gibson||1.043||.344||Ty Blach||.443||.147|
|Jerad Eickhoff||.868||.272||Zack Greinke||.633||.226|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Josh Tomlin||.962||.349||Jason Vargas||.542||.203|
|Kyle Gibson||.945||.340||Jerard Eickhoff||.581||.241|
|John Lackey||.815||.275||Gerrit Cole||.588||.206|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Mike Moustakas||Michael Pineda||15||3|
|Chris Davis||Kyle Gibson||11||2.72|
|Salvador Perez||Michael Pineda||23||2.39|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Greinke – ARI vs. CWS – $12,000 – Greinke is the most expensive pitcher on this slate, as he’s $1,500 more than Michael Pineda. He’ll take on the White Sox at home, a place where Greinke has averaged 22.2 DK Fantasy points in six starts. The White Sox remain one of the worst offenses in the league and will be down a hitter as they’ll lose the DH position. Against righties, the White Sox own a 22.6 K%, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. I believe this should be a great spot for the former Cy Young winner against this weak offense.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Chris Davis – BAL vs. MIN – $4,700 – Chris Davis has been hot at the plate (well, except for yesterday) averaging 15.7 DK FPPG over his last 10 games. Tonight, he has a very favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson at Camden Yards. Gibson has been struggling against lefties, posting a .441 wOBA with a .623 SLG and a .420 OBP with four of his six home runs allowed.
Save Big by Drafting…
UPDATE: Kennys Vargas is NOT in the Twins’ lineup tonight.
Kennys Vargas – MIN vs. BAL – $3,900 – I like this spot for Vargas as he goes up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Although Jimenez has only 15.1 innings at Camden Yards this season, he’s given up five home runs with a .376 wOBA and a .542 SLG. On the road against righties, Vargas owns a .419 wOBA with a .667 SLG.
Stack Em Up
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies (Jeff Hoffman) – I wanted to go with a bit of a different stack here tonight with the Phillies taking on Hoffman. Believe it or not, the Phillies are one of the best hitting clubs at home this season, owning a .351 wOBA with a .470 SLG and a .350 OBP. Hoffman is coming off a great start against the Dodgers, but his career numbers are nothing impressive. In his limited career numbers, Hoffman owns a .440 wOBA with a .622 SLG and a .391 OBP.
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