With a short five game slate tonight, getting some of those sneaky plays will certainly be a challenge. Let’s break down this slate, and see what we can exploit to make this a successful one. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

MIA (-154) vs. WAS – Jose Fernandez – No real surprise here with the Marlins being favored with Jose Fernandez on the mound. I will say though, I was a bit surprised with the -154, figured it would be a bit higher. Regardless, Fernandez brings his absurd 13 K/9 to the mound today against a Nationals team that owns a 20.5 K% against righties this season. The Nationals also haven’t been hitting very well, owning a .305 wOBA against righties this season with a .385 SLG. With such a short slate, Fernandez will by far be the most popular pick on the night, as it’s almost impossible to not be able to fit him in.

Mike Fiers (-151) vs. TEX – Mike Fiers – Fiers and the Astros get the nod for this game taking on the Rangers. Fiers is having a typical season, owning an ERA in the mid-fours, striking out 5-6 batters per game and averaging about 12 FPPG. Nothing spectacular by any means. The Rangers are essentially middle of the league in hitting and while I don’t hate this spot for Fiers, I don’t love it either. Then again, you can’t get to picky on a slate like this. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been a relatively tough team to strike out, owning an 18.7 K% against righties.

Highest Totals

BAL vs. LAA – 8.5 runs – Even with this game being in Angel Stadium, the Orioles have to be the top stack on the slate. Going up against Matt Shoemaker, they have a fantastic chance of putting up some crooked numbers. Shoemaker is averaging a whopping 4.3 FPPG and has been in the negative points in four of his seven starts. His home start is where he’s been getting crushed, owning a 14.40 ERA (not a typo) with a 2.70 WHIP (not a typo) and .482 wOBA. With the Orioles owning a .352 wOBA against righties, this should be quite the game for the O’s.

Weather Concerns

Short slate means a small chance of weather concerns. Happy to report that my brief time in 8th grade weather class has brought me to the point of saying, we have nothing to worry about tonight.

Park Factors

  • Marlins Park – WAS vs MIA – I wouldn’t say any of these parks are exactly “favorable” for tonight, since Marlins Park was ranked 14th last season and is the top option. In 2015, Marlins Park favored triples and walks last season.
  • Petco Park – LAD vs SDP – Again, this isn’t very “favorable” when it was ranked 20th last season. Petco Park only favored home runs for hitters last season.
  • AT&T Park – CHC vs SFG – Well at least the two worst ballpark are on this slate so we can say with no doubt that they are indeed the worst. AT&T Park only favored triples in 2015.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – BAL vs LAA – Park Factor doesn’t really seem to matter when Shoemaker is on the mound, but I still have to give you the facts. LAA Stadium only favored walks in 2015.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Matt Cain.946.354Kevin Gausman.355.128
Alex Wood.904.317Jon Lester.604.225
Matt Shoemaker.796.310Joe Ross.686.265

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Matt Shoemaker1.137.423Jon Lester.554.201
Cesar Vargas1.043.354Joe Ross.573.207
Mike Fiers.873.286Jose Fernandez.577.211

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Yunel EscobarKevin Gausman102.2
Denard SpanJon Lester232.04

  • Gross. To be quite honest, I could have skipped the BvP section all together, but I wouldn’t want to let all you, the people, down. So we have the two “best” BvP stats on the night. First, Escobar is 6-10 against Gausman with a double and an RBI.
  • Next, Span has actually been decent against Lester in his career. He’s 8-23 with a double, three RBIs and five walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Fernandez – MIA vs WAS – $12,500 – If you were looking for a super sneaky play at pitcher on this short five game slate, it isn’t going to happen. Fernandez is by far the top option on this slate and I won’t budge off of that notion. With the Nationals striking out an average of 7.5 per game, this will play perfectly into what Fernandez has been dealing this season with his incredible 13 K/9. If you’re playing in a GPP, Fernandez is a candidate to be faded, as if he falters you’ll benefit immensely here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs. LAA (Matt Shoemaker) – $4,100 – I really don’t understand (not complaining) how Trumbo still hovers just around $4,000. This is someone who is averaging 9.7 FPPG and is maintaining that with 9.6 over his last 10. In that last 10 game span, Trumbo is 10-40 with four home runs, seven RBIs, and two doubles. Against someone who has been crushed at home like Shoemaker, Trumbo has to be one of the top options on the night.

Save Big by Drafting…

Tommy La Stella – CHC vs. SFG (Matt Cain) – $3,000 – First off, get La Stella in the lineup, Cubs. This kid needs to be playing. His FPPG looks low, but that’s essentially because of getting one at-bat per game. Overall, however, he’s batting .313 with two home runs, seven RBIs with a .936 OPS. With Jason Heyward injured last night, it could open up a spot for La Stella to draw more consistent starts. Facing off against Matt Cain, who is allowing a .406 wOBA to lefties, this could be a nice night for La Stella to show what he can do.

Stack Em Up

BAL vs. CHC (Matt Shoemaker) – As I’ve noted multiple times in this article, Shoemaker has been horrific at home, and I have no reason to believe that won’t continue tonight. Owning an ERA of 13+ at home says it all, and with the Orioles owning the third highest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, it’s going to be the most popular stack on the night.