Friday brings us a full 15 game slate for tonight with a bunch of favorable match ups and some intriguing stack options. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

PIT (-220) vs. COL – Gerrit Cole – For the second day in a row, Pittsburgh gets the nod as the biggest favorite on the slate. Gerrit Cole takes on the Rockies in this one in PIT. Coming into this start, Cole checks in with a 3.05 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and averaging 18.5 FPPG. Cole takes on this Rockies team that owns a .313 wOBA on the road, which ranks 17th in the league. They’re not striking out a ton, owning a 21.4 K%, but it lands right around the league average. With his $8,700 price tag and this start coming in PNC Park, where Cole owns a 2.05 ERA with a .264 wOBA, he seems like a fine play on this slate.

CHC (-200) vs. SFG – Jake Arrieta –  Arrieta comes into this slate as the most expensive pitcher on the night at $12,800. On the season, Arrieta owns a 1.29 ERA in eight starts with a 0.84 WHIP and averaging 28.7 FPPG. After a lackluster start against the Nationals, Arrierta bounced back nicely against the Pirates going eight innings allowing two runs on three hits with a 11:2 K:BB ratio. At this point, it’s hard to nit pick about much of anything with Arrieta. It would be nice if he got his walks down a bit, as he’s allowed four in a game three times this season, but I’m honestly grasping at straws at this point. One thing to consider is that the Giants don’t strike out much at home at all, owning a 16.7 K%, the lowest in the league, and 15.9% overall against righties. Fading Arrieta is a tall task to do, but the lack of strikeouts may limit his ceiling today. 

Highest Totals

CLE vs. BOS – 9 runs – The Red Sox have essentially made Fenway Park the “Coors Field of the American League” at this point. At home, the Red Sox own a .380 wOBA with a .196 ISO, and a .507 SLG.  Tonight they take on Corey Kluber with his 4.30 ERA but low 1.13 WHIP. Kluber hasn’t been bad lately, as his overall numbers (beside ERA) look to be in line with his career numbers. If anything, he’s inducing more ground balls (50% this season, 45.5% career) and getting strikeouts (8.9 K/9 this season, 9.6 career.) It’s hard to deny how well this Sox team is hitting at home, however.

On the other side, Clay Buchholz takes the mound, and he’s been anything but reliable. Owning a .365 wOBA at home, Buchholz has been getting whacked around almost every start, owning a 5.90 ERA at home. Left-handed batters have been the killer for him, allowing a .387 wOBA with a .373 at Fenway Park. With this game in Boston, or even if it was in Cleveland, this has runs written all over it.

Weather Concerns

  • SEA vs CIN (Great American Ballpark)- This game will feature rain all throughout the night and will most likely get PPD. Keep in eye on this one in case anything changes.
  • BAL vs LAA: 11 mph wind blowing out to right field.
  • NYY vs. OAK: 22 mph wind blowing out to right field.
  • CHC vs. SFG: 20 mph wind blowing out to right field.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any offensive category at or above 1.000 favor hitters. Anything below that mark favor pitchers.

  • Fenway Park– CLE vs. BOS – From one hitter friendly ballpark to another, the Indians visit Fenway Park. In 2015, Fenway favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Great American Ballpark – CLE vs. CIN – Both of these teams play in very hitter friendly ballparks, so no real advantage either way here. The Great American Ballpark favored hitters in every offensive category except triples.
  • AT&T Park – CHC vs. SFG – Back to AT&T Park, the worst ballpark for hitters last season. In 2015, it only favored hitters in triples.
  • Angels Stadium of Anaheim – LAD vs. LAA – Angels Stadium was ranked the second worst ballpark for hitters in 2015. The only category that favored hitters was walks.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batter

Mike Wright1.017.371Justin Nicolino.336.125
Jake Peavy1.105.379Jose Quintana.453.193
Wily Peralta.921.324Aaron Nola.475.160

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Wily Peralta1.118.412Carlos Martinez.356.155
Sonny Gray1.027.301Jake Arrieta.360.214
Jake Peavy.909.288Tyler Duffey.483.157

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Adam JonesHector Santiago102.5
Jimmy RollinsDillon Gee312.45
Salvador PerezJose Quintana452.17

  • Today’s BvP section is a bit light, so bare with me here. We start off with Adam Jones seeing Santiago a handful of times, Jones if 4-10 with a home run, 2 RBIs and a walk. 
  • Jimmy Rollins has one of the bigger sample sizes and has hit Dillon Gee well. Rollins is 14-31 with two doubles, two home runs, five RBIs and three walks in his career.  
  • Finally, Salvador Perez has seen some success against Jose Quintana. Perez is 17-45 with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and eight RBIs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Aaron Nola – PHI vs. ATL – $11,000 – Nola is a nice savings from Arrieta tonight. With a $1,800 price difference, I like the Nola pivot off of Arrieta. With Nola, we have A LOT to like about this matchup. Nola is going deep into games, reaching the seventh inning in six of his eight starts. The strikeouts have been high with a 9.8 K/9, and the walks have been low with a 1.5 BB/9. Add all this together with his .206 wOBA against lefties and a .229 wOBA against righties, and we have quite the start ahead of him against the Braves. Owning a .297 team wOBA against the Braves, Nola should be in a prime spot to shine again here tonight. Even with the Braves owning a low 18 K%, Nola should be able to grab enough to be a viable cash game or GPP option.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Yoenis Cespedes – MIL vs. NYM (Wily Peralta) – $4,900 – He’s in the perfect spot tonight, and, quite honestly, anyone taking on Peralta is in play. Coming into this start, Peralta owns a 7.30 ERA with a 1.99 WHIP. He’s reached double digits in fantasy points twice this season against the Phillies and the Marlins. The rest of the way, he hasn’t exceeded 5.9 points and has been in the negative three times. Against right-handed batters, like Cespedes, he owns a .474 wOBA against them with a .660 SLG with five home runs allowed.  The cherry on top is his hard hit ball percentage against righties sitting at 37%. Even in a pitchers park like Citi Field, I still love the Mets in this spot.

Save Big by Drafting… 

Marwin Gonzalez – HOU vs. TEX (Colby Lewis) – $2,900 – Gonzalez gives you a lot of options tonight as he’s eligible at both first and third base. Sprinkle in his $2,900 price tag going up against a left-handed pitcher, Colby Lewis, and we really have something brewing here. Gonzalez has some pop and Lewis has been giving up home runs like it’s nobody’s business. Allowing 10 thus far this season, Lewis has split them evenly with five going to both lefties and righties. Lewis has allowed a .358 wOBA to lefties this season and Gonzalez could be a solid play to save you some money on this slate. 

Stack Em Up

NYM vs. MIL (Wily Peralta) – This is by far the top stack on the night and one that I think many will be on. As I mentioned earlier, Peralta is having an extremely rough season, and it won’t get any easier tonight. Even with the Mets just a hair below the league average in wOBA against righties at .311, Peralta has been making almost every team he’s faced look like an offensive force. On the road this season, Peralta has allowed a .330 wOBA to lefties and a .433 against righties.