Thursday night brings us a short, five-game slate tonight. Let’s jump right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins – Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,100) – On this short, five-game slate, Ryu and the Dodgers are the heavy favorites tonight. They’ll take on a Marlins club that has struggled at the plate but have hit left-handed pitching well. The Marlins own a .333 wOBA against lefties, which is the eighth-highest in the league. Aside from that, they check in with a .343 OBP and a .432 SLG. With that being said, they are playing in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, which certainly boosts the case for Ryu. If this were a big 15-game slate, I think Ryu would be considered a fade, but with the lack of options tonight, he could be one of your better choices.

Highest Totals

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners – 9 projected runs – The Mariners have the highest projected run total on this slate at 5.2 runs as they take on Dylan Covey and the White Sox. If you’ve read my article before, you probably know how horrific Covey has been this season. Averaging a whopping 3.4 FPPG in six starts, Covey has made four of those starts on the road and averaged -1.5 DKFP. In 21 innings of work, Covey has allowed 21 runs on 34 hits with seven home runs and a 7:8 K:BB ratio. One would have to imagine the Mariners will be an extremely popular stack on this slate.

Weather Concerns

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals (Kauffman Stadium) – Kauffman Stadium will see some rain tonight and could be delayed at one point. This game will be worth monitoring.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our number one ballpark for hitters on the night. As of last season, all categories except for home runs were favored here.
  • SunTrust Park – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park is our second most favorable park for hitters on this slate. Last season, runs, singles and walks were favored here.
  • *Dodger Stadium – Miami Marlins vs. L.A. Dodgers * – Dodger Stadium is the worst ballpark on this slate for hitters, as it almost always is. No offensive categories were favored here.
  • Oakland Coliseum Boston Red Sox – vs. Oakland A’s – The Coliseum is one of the least favored ballparks for hitters in all of baseball, and is our number two tonight. Triples were the only category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Edinson Volquez.930.289Danny Duffy.606.200
Jordan Montgomery.886.267Marcus Stroman.704.272
Hyun-Jin Ryu.882.324Dylan Covey.724.250

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Dylan Covey1.310.422Julio Teheran.521.241
Hyun-Jin Ryu.902.271Edinson Volquez.580.209
Marcus Stroman.771.308Jordan Montgomery.696.252

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Justin TurnerEdinson Volquez123.08

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Marcus Stroman – TOR vs. ATL – $11,300 – Stroman isn’t even a solid option tonight if I’m brutally honest. But, I can’t name anyone who is, so I feel he’ll be one of the more popular options next to Ryu. Stroman has been his best at home, averaging 17 FPPG in five starts and 33 innings pitched. The Braves have been hitting well lately, but they still are only ranked 18th in the league against righties with a .320 wOBA.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Kyle Seager – SEA vs. CWS – $4,200 – Of course I’m going to showcase a Mariner in this spot as they take on Dylan Covey. Seager has been a beast at home this season against right-handed pitchers, owning a .420 wOBA with a .580 SLG and a .424 OBP. Seager has been a bit disappointing in the power department, but he has hit three of his four home runs at home, and Covey is exactly the guy to do it against.

Save Big by Drafting…

Joc Pederson – LAD vs. MIA – $3,700 – Volquez will come to Dodger Stadium tonight with his brutal numbers against left-handed batters. As of tonight, Volquez owns a .386 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .519 SLG and an OBP of .383 allowed. On top of that, all four home runs that Volquez has allowed has come against left-handed batters.

Stack Em Up

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey) – Can’t get cute here. Covey is a gas can, and Seattle is the fuse. I won’t overthink this.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.