Wednesday night brings us an 11-game slate for us to choose our rosters from. Let’s jump right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds – Kyle Hendricks ($9,100) – Hendricks and the Cubs are the heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Reds. Hendricks has struggled at home thus far this season, owning a .355 wOBA with a .448 SLG and a .373 OBP. It’s a bit surprising, as the Reds have been hitting right-handed pitching well, owning a .331 wOBA with a .441 SLG and a .331 OBP. To be fair, Hendricks has been pitching well as of late, but he’s still allowing a 35% hard hit rate to opposing hitters with a batted ball distance of 200 ft. I usually tend to agree with these predictions, but this is one I’m not on board with, as the weather is also going to be a factor here. I’ll be looking elsewhere at pitcher tonight.

Highest Total

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers – 10.5 projected runs – This game opened at 10 projected runs and has moved up a half run to 10.5. The Rangers are favored in this one with a 5.6 implied run total as they take on Zack Eflin. He’s pitched decently so far this season and is coming off plenty of rest, having seven days off since his last start. The problem here is the Rangers’ abilities against righties. They’ll enter tonight with a .324 wOBA to go with a .433 SLG and a .316 OBP. Eflin isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, so he relies on contact, which could get him into trouble tonight. In a hitter friendly park, I like the Rangers.

Weather Concerns

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (Wrigley Field) – We’ll most likely see a disturbance or two during this game as thunderstorms will be rolling through. Pitching is extremely risky in this game so use with caution.

Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins (Target Field) – I’d be shocked if they ended up playing tonight, as rain will be present all throughout the day and night. Be sure to check this game closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is the number one ballpark for hitters on the night. As of last season, all categories except for home runs were favored here.
  • Globe Life Park – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers – The Phillies are playing in Texas tonight, which is also our second most favorable ballpark tonight. All offensive categories were favored here last season.
  • Wrigley Field – Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – Wrigley Field is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. In 2016, only triples and walks were favored here.
  • Busch Stadium – Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our second worst ballpark for hitters as the Red Sox visit for this three-game series. No offensive categories were favored here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Ubaldo Jimenez.999.259Michael Fulmer.415.152
Matt Garza.964.300Ervin Santana.476.140
Jhoulys Chacin.916.280Mike Leake.554.215

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Rick Porcello.870.321Ervin Santana.450.115
German Marquez.829.240Jason Vargas.489.194
Scott Feldman.791.260Matt Garza.546.224

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Mike MoustakasMichael Pineda133.23
Carlos GonzalezErvin Santana153.1
Victor MartinezUbaldo Jimenez322.82

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Pineda – NYY vs. KC – $10,100 – The Royals continue to be a team we pick on, and tonight will be no different. On the surface, Pineda doesn’t have impressive road numbers thus far, as home runs have been a huge reason for that. Against this Royals team, that shouldn’t be too much of a threat as they rank 27th in the league with 36. Pineda makes this start owning a 10.8 K/9 against a team that has a 21.1 K% against righties, which ranks them right in the middle of the league. I don’t think the price for Pineda is overly high, making him one of my favorites on the night.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman – ATL vs. TOR – $5,200 – Freeman is essentially matchup proof at this point and is one of the most expensive hitters on this slate. Hitting at home has been a great place for him, averaging 12.5 FPPG with five home runs and five doubles. Joe Biagini hasn’t pitched much in the majors in his career, but he owns a career .339 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .432 SLG and a .356 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Alex Avila – DET vs. BAL – $3,500 – Avila has been an on-base machine this season and has a fantastic matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. At home, Jimenez has allowed a .458 wOBA to lefties with a .731 SLG and three of his eight home runs this season. Avila could be low-owned and is eligible at both catcher and first base tonight.

Stack Em Up

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Ubaldo Jimenez) – Two night in a row I’m rolling with the Tigers stack after they brought us some success last night. As I mentioned, Ubaldo Jimenez has been struggling against lefties immensely this season. Throwing Victor Martinez over Miguel Cabrera in your stack tonight could be a sneaky way to differentiate your lineup from the other Tiger stacks.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.