After a less than stellar slate last night, we have a solid 14 game slate on tap tonight with some huge pitching matchups to target. Let’s take a look at all the information for tonight, and, as always, you can grab me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
LAD (-290) vs. LAA – Clayton Kershaw – Ah yes, another slate with Kershaw, another #1 favorite on the night. Kershaw comes into this matchup hot off the heels of his best performance this season against the Mets. In that start, Kershaw threw a complete game shutout allowing three hits with a 13:1 K:BB ratio. Averaging 34 FPPG, Kershaw is essentially matchup proof at this point, grabbing double digit strikeouts in his last five starts. Even against a tough team to strike out like the Angels, this matchup should be a piece of pie for Kershaw. Also, even though it’s a small sample size, the Angels rank 11th in the league in strikeouts over the past week, averaging 7.4 per game.
STL (-176) vs. COL – Jaime Garcia – I was quite surprised to see Garcia and the Cardinals as the second most favored team on this slate. Garcia is having a solid (healthy) season thus far, owning a 2.58 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP in seven starts. It is somewhat surprising, however, as the Rockies lead the league in wOBA and OPS against lefties at .363 and .850. I don’t know if I’ll be jumping at this spot for Garcia, but he could be an interesting pivot off of some of the big names on this slate. For what it’s worth, Garcia has seen a fairly light schedule thus far this season taking on teams like the Angels, Phillies, Brewers and Braves.
MIN vs. DET – 9.5 runs – BRING ON THE RUNS, BABY! Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey will take the mound in this one. If you were looking for these pitchers on this slate, they’re allllll the way down on your list. Hughes enters this game with a 6.44 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP, while Pelfrey owns a 5.80 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP. Both of these pitchers are no strangers to allowing home runs either with Pelfrey allowing six and Hughes with seven. These teams have both met earlier this month with Pelfrey allowing five runs in four innings on eight hits. Hughes went five innings allowing four runs on seven hits. Truly, you won’t have to pull my arm to get exposure to this game.
|Targets||Read More||Cheat Sheet|
No real rain concerns today, although we could see a slight chance of rain to start the game with SEA and BAL, but that should be a small delay if anything. We do have a couple games with some wind, so let’s take a look a those.
1) HOU vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Wind blowing out to right field at 12 mph.
2) WAS vs. NYM (Citi Field) – Wind blowing out to right center field at 11 mph.
3) TEX vs. OAK (Oakland Coliseum) – Wind blowing out to right field at 12 mph.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors the hitters, while anything below favors pitchers.
- Camden Yards – SEA vs. BAL – Playing in the complete opposite of their home turf, the Mariners come to the third best ranked park for hitters in 2015. Camden Yards favored hitters in runs, home runs and singles last season.
- Miller Park – CHC vs MIL – Miller gets the nod as the second best park for hitters on this slate today. In 2015, hitters had a favorable rating in every offensive category.
- Citi Field – WAS vs. NYM – Citi Field checks in as the worst ballpark for hitters tonight as it didn’t have a single offensive category ranked over 1.000. The closest were walks with a 0.998 rating.
- Comerica Park – MIN vs. DET – The ballpark certainly isn’t stopping me from loving this game. However, in 2015, Comerica Park only favored hitters in triples.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Pelfrey||1.072||.413||Clayton Kershaw||362||.154|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||1.029||.371||Jaime Garcia||.400||.171|
|Max Scherzer||1.029||.323||Madinson Bumgarner||.406||.139|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chase Anderson||1.093||.375||Max Scherzer||.488||.153|
|Jered Weaver||.923||.323||Juan Nicasio||.492||.175|
|Michael Pineda||.920||.273||Clayton Kershaw||.507||.196|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Freddie Freeman||Juan Nicasio||12||6.58|
|Robinson Cano||Ubaldo Jimenez||11||4.4|
|Miguel Cabrera||Phil Hughes||41||3.31|
- We start off with a small but very impressive BvP. Freddie Freeman has six hits off of Juan Nicasio with all of them going for extra bases. Freeman is 6-12 with a double, triple, four home runs, nine RBIs and four walks.
- Cano is off to an extremely hot start this season, so what better than a favorable matchup against Jimenez? Cano is 6-11 with two doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Finally, Cabrera has the most at-bats in today’s BvP section, and he’s come up big against Hughes. Cabrera is 18-41 with five doubles, six home runs and 14 RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs. SDP – $12,500 – We have a lot to love in this matchup for MadBum. He takes on the Padres, who are currently ranked second to last in the league in wOBA at .277 and 4th in strikeouts with a 25.2 K%. With a 10.8 K/9 on the season, this seems like an awfully enticing spot for Bumgarner, whom you’ll get at a $1,200 discount from Kershaw. It’s not a big savings, but with SO many people expected to jump on Clayton tonight, Bumgarner could be a nice pivot. Out of the top three of Kershaw, Scherzer and Bumgarner, MadBum certainly has the most favorable matchup of them all.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. MIN (Phil Hughes) – $4,400 – I know you’re all probably shocked I didn’t roll with Freddie Freeman here because #BvPLife. However, I do love this game, especially with the highest run total of the day. Cabrera has really turned his season around, sporting a .285 average with six home runs, 20 RBIs and a .822 OPS. His power seems to be coming back as well, hitting two home runs in his past five games. With someone as volatile as Phil Hughes on the mound and the amount of home runs he allows, this should be a great spot for Cabrera. Coming into tonight, Cabrera owns a .379 wOBA with an ISO of .209.
Save Big by Drafting…
Joey Rickard – BAL vs SEA (Wade Miley) – $3,300 – Rickard has been a nice addition to the Orioles lineup batting leadoff in this power group of hitters. I love this matchup for him against Wade Miley at Camden Yards no less. Against lefties, Rickard owns a .379 wOBA this season with a .171 ISO. Miley has been struggling against righties owning a .356 wOBA and allowing seven home runs in just seven starts. At the hitter friendly Camden Yards, this could spell trouble for Miley in the early going. Rickard is a perfect way to get some cheap exposure to this.
Stack Em Up
BOS vs. KCR (Yordano Ventura) – I REALLY like this stack tonight because I think it will be difficult for the majority of people to fit this stack in with the pitching we have to choose from tonight. So, making this stack work could be key. Let’s not forget how well this Red Sox team is hitting right now. They’re completely crushing it, owning a .442 wOBA, .615 SLG and a .251 ISO over their last seven games. They take on Yordano Ventura who is allowing a .329 wOBA to lefties and a .302 against righties. That sounds great and all, but Ventura is really struggling with his command, owning a 6.3 BB/9 over seven starts. Getting these Red Sox on base is NOT something you want to do right now.