We have ten games going tonight in what will certainly be a slate packed with a lot of big offensive match ups. The pitching is very underwhelming for this slate, so be prepared to pay up for hitters. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
KCR (-170) vs. ATL – Dillion Gee – This could be a new low for the Braves. Dillion Gee gets his first start for the Royals and BOOM, he’s favored tonight. Gee replaces Chris Young in the rotation after throwing 5.1 innings of solid relief work his last time out. Gee couldn’t get an easier opponent tonight with the Braves. The Braves own a.271 wOBA against righties with a .076 ISO, .610 OPS and a .309 SLG, all ranked last in the league. They’ve been striking out a bit more in the past; ranked 18th with a 19.5 K% but Gee has never been a huge strikeout guy, owning a career 6.4 K/9. Nonetheless, Gee is going to run you for just $4,600, providing incredible value. He will be a very popular pick if people even notice he’s starting.
SEA (-165) vs. LAA – Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has a matchup against another team that isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball, the Angels. Coming into tonight, the Angels own a .298 wOBA with a .365 SLG. As we say every time, it’s enticing to start a pitcher against the Angels, but they don’t strike out much, owning a 15.9 K% which ranks second to last in the league. The advantage for Iwakuma here is that this game is in Angel Stadium, which was ranked the second worst park for hitters in 2015. Other than that, it’s hard to find a lot of upside for this start.
NYM vs. COL – 11 runs – Ah yes, another slate with Coors. Projected at 11 runs tonight, Logan Verrett and Eddie Butler go head to head in this one. Both of these teams hit righties exceptionally well, as they both rank in the top 10 in wOBA with the Rockies in 6th at .332 and the Mets in 8th at .328. As we say in each game at Coors Field, it’s always a good idea to have some exposure.
TOR vs TEX – 9.5 runs – The Rangers and Blue Jays haven’t been killing the ball as of late, as these teams rank 17th and 18th in wOBA against right handed pitchers. However, with Marco Estrada and Colby Lewis on the mound tonight, Vegas is expecting some big things. The weaker of the pitchers here is Lewis, who owns a .355 wOBA against lefties and a .316 against righties. TOR is very RHB heavy, but they certainly have the bats to make something happen. I’m not too keen on going heavy on the TEX side, as I think Estrada is a solid pitcher because he owns a .291 wOBA against lefties and a .238 wOBA against righties.
We have A LOT of heavy winds going tonight. So instead of breaking down every single game, here is quick wind report
DET vs BAL : 11mph blowing out to left field
CIN vs PHI: 14mph blowing out to left field
ATL vs KCR: 11mph blowing from left to right
TOR vs TEX: 14 mph blowing out to right field
NYM vs COL: 13mph blowing in from center field
1) DET vs. BAL (Camden Yards) – This game will have a chance of thunderstorms throughout the day and during game time. Watch this one closely, as the wind is also a factor.
2 CIN vs PHI (Citizen Bank Park) – This game has a chance of rain for the first couple hours but clears out after that. This could have a lengthy delay but should be able to play later in the night.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category is rated at or above 1.000, it favors the hitters. Anything below goes for pitchers.
- Coors Field – NYM vs COL – No surprise that Coors was the number one ranked hitters park last season. It favors hitters in every offensive category you can imagine.
- Camden Yards – DET vs BAL – In 2015, Camden Yards ranked as the third best overall hitters ballpark. In that season, Camden Yards favored hitters in runs, home runs, and singles.
- Safeco Field – LAA vs SEA – No real advantage or disadvantage for either team here. Both of these teams play in parks that favor pitchers more than hitters. Last season Safeco did not have a favorable category for hitters.
- Dodger Stadium – STL vs LAD – Dodger Stadium was one of the lower ranked stadiums for hitters last season. In 2015, it only was favorable for home runs and even that was at the minimum of 1.000.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jake Peavy||1.195||.417||Tanner Roark||.444||.157|
|Mike Wright||1.069||.393||Patrick Corbin||.469||.133|
|Wily Peralta||.977||.349||Aaron Nola||.496||.167|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Wily Peralta||.995||.388||Carlos Martinez||.379||.164|
|Jake Peavy||.981||.307||Aaron Nola||.535||.202|
|Scott Kazmir||.858||.272||Marco Estrada||.540||.197|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Nori Aoki||Jhoulys Chacin||11||4.36|
|Hunter Pence||Patrick Corbin||21||3.80|
|Justin Smoak||Colby Lewis||19||2.84|
- We have some solid BvP going in this night slate. We start with Nori Aoki who has four hits against Chacine, all for extra bases. Aoki is 4-11 with a double, three home runs and three RBIs,
- Next is Hunter Pence, who is 10-21 with three doubles, a triple, three home runs, seven RBIs and two walks against Corbin.
- Finally, Smaok has some great numbers against Colby Lewis. Smoak is 8-19 with two doubles, two home runs, four RBIs and two walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Aaron Nola – PHI vs. CIN – $9,500 – Nola has a fantastic matchup on tap tonight facing the Reds. The Reds own one of the lowest wOBA against righties and one of the highest K%. Their wOBA checks in at .293, which ranks 27th in the league and their K% is at 23%, ranked 7th. Nola has been fantastic at striking out batters, owning a 9.5 K/9 on the season. Nola has seen his wOBA against opposing hitter’s dip to microscopic numbers, owning a .213 against lefties and a .229 against righties. This should be a big spot for Nola and one that I expect a LOT of people to be on.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Chris Davis – BAL vs DET (Anibal Sanchez) – $5,000 – Davis faces Anibal Sanchez tonight who has really struggled in the early going of the season. Coming into tonight, Sanchez owns a .374 wOBA against lefties with a .431 SLG and two home runs allowed. Davis has been hitting righties very well, owning a .424 wOBA with an ISO of .333. Eight of his nine home runs have come against a right-handed pitching this season. Coming off a season where Sanchez allowed 29 home runs, he’ll have trouble keeping the ball in Camden Yards.
Save Big by Drafting…
Nori Aoki – SFG vs. LAA (Jhoulys Chacin) – $3,500 – I know that I’m basing this off his BvP numbers, but getting someone that owns all extra base hits off of a particular pitcher peaks my interest. Not only that, he’s cheap. Aoki isn’t crushing the ball by any means, but he’s averaging 6.1 FPPG and costs only $3,500 on the night. With three home runs in his career against Chacin, it’s at least a bit enticing.
Stack Em Up
MIL vs. SD (Luis Perdomo) – This is what the Padres have resorted to already? Perdomo gets the start for the Padres tonight after making just 10 relief appearances. Prior to this season, Perdomo hadn’t pitched higher than A ball and hasn’t seen much success at all in the majors. To say that the Brewers can’t jump all over this kid would be crazy. The Brewers own a .327 wOBA against righties this season ranking 10th in the league. This could get ugly fast.