Tonight brings us a near full slate of games with 14 on tap for tonight. We have plenty of matchups that we can exploit in our favor, so let’s jump right into the information. As always, you can grab me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
WAS (-156) vs. MIA – Gio Gonzalez – After coming off some slates that featured Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta amonngst others, this doesn’t feel like a big favorite. Gonzalez gets the nod as the Nationals are the biggest favored team tonight going against the Marlins. Coming into tonight, Gonzalez owns a 2.19 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 6.8 K/9. The Marlins are a decent hitting ball club that doesn’t have a lot of home run pop, but they can hit for extra bases. Coming into tonight, the Marlins own a .327 wOBA against lefties with a SLG of .416. They do strike out a hefty amount against lefties with a 24.6 K%. I don’t hate this spot for Gonzalez, but I don’t love it either. The Marlins can be a sneaky team when it comes to hitting and with the lack of K’s Gonzalez is producing to this point, I can’t say I’m a big fan.
KCR (-155) vs. ATL – Edinson Volquez – We all know the struggles of the Braves against right-handed batters. It’s downright painful. Coming into this start, the Braves own the lowest wOBA in the majors against righties at .274. If that wasn’t bad enough, they rank last in IOS, SLG, and OPS. For as bad as they are, they don’t strike out a ton, owning a 19.7 K%, which ranks 18th in the league. Volquez comes into this start with a 7.7 K/9 while averaging 15.2 FPPG. He’s been a bit shaky lately and his command has been a bit of an issue, owning a 3.2 BB/9. However, at $8,000, he has some good value against such a weak offense.
NYM vs COL – 10.5 runs – We have two games on this slate tonight that have at least 10 runs projected which is rare. We start off with the obvious one being the Coors Field matchup. In this game, you’ll be getting Matt Harvey at a incredible discount, but his performance mixed with Coors Field explains that one. Averaging 13.7 FPPG, Harvey has struggled the majority of the season and has seen his strikeouts take a dip thus far. As a right-handed pitcher, he takes on a Rockies team that ranks sixth in wOBA at .331 and that isn’t striking out much with a 18.3 K%. This is clearly not a good spot for Harvey, especially with his early season struggles to this point. I would most certainly grab some exposure to this game.
TOR vs TEX– 10 runs – Another game projected in the double digits for runs is the Blue Jays taking on the Rangers. R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Blue Jays and Martin Perez for the Rangers. Dickey has been getting whacked around this season; averaging only 8.5 FPPG in seven starts this season. He owns a 5.18 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 6.3 K/9. Perez hasn’t been getting killed in his starts, but he’s walking a ton of guys, owning a BB/9 of 5 in seven starts. With the Blue Jays owning a .317 wOBA against lefties and the Rangers with a .314 wOBA against righties, this game should most certainly feature some fireworks and plenty of guys on base. I would most certainly take a look at this one.
1) CHW vs NYY (Yankee Stadium) – This matchup should feature some rain near the first pitch which could bring some issues. However, it does clear out later in the evening, so a delay could be possible but hopefully nothing more.
2) HOU vs BOS (Fenway Park) – This game could be trouble as we have rain for the majority of the night. As of this morning, it’s supposed to continue on into the night, so we have a real real of a PPD here.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors the hitters while anything below favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – NYM vs COL – Going from one of the worst hitting ballparks last season to the best, the Mets may just enjoy Coors Field. Last season, Coors favored hitters in every offensive category.
- Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE – Ranked the second best hitters ballpark in 2015, Progressive Field favored hitters in every offensive category except home runs and triples.
- Safeco Field – LAA vs SEA – We have two teams facing off against each other that almost equally have terrible parks for hitting. Safeco Field did not have a single category that favored hitters last season.
- Dodger Stadium – STL vs LAD – In 2015, Dodger Stadium only favored hitters in home runs last season and even that was by the bare minimum rating of 1.000.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Matt Harvey||.909||.329||Chris Sale||.393||.156|
|Tom Koehler||.889||.306||Luis Severino||.394||.282|
|R.A. Dickey||.879||.299||Jake Odorizzi||.472||.192|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Luis Severino||1.104||.344||Chris Sale||.483||.167|
|Justin Verlander||.927||.299||Steven Wright||.517||.180|
|Shelby Miller||.918||.278||Chris Tillman||.521||.180|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Bryce Harper||Tom Koehler||28||3.53|
|Josh Donaldson||Martin Perez||15||2.86|
|Miguel Cabrera||Chris Tillman||13||2.53|
- We start off with the destruction that is Bryce Harper against Tom Koehler. Harper is 9-28 with a double, six home runs, 11 RBIs and three walks.
- Donaldson hasn’t seen a ton of Perez, but he’s got a few extra base hits off of him. Donaldson is 6-15 with three doubles, a home run, two RBIs and four walks.
- Finally, Miguel Cabrera has a couple of extra base hits off of Tillman as he’s 5-13 with a double, home run, four RBIs and two walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Chris Sale – CHW vs NYY – $12,300 – This slate of pitching is not very impressive, so going with Sale against the Yankees seems like the most logical choice. The Yankees are not hitting well by any means as a club, owning a .305 wOBA against lefties this season with a K% of 19.7. While the strikeouts against lefties has been low, Sale always has the capability of rack up some serious strikeouts, even if his K/9 is lower this season, sitting at 8.4 Even with the strikeouts down, he’s still averaging 27.9 FPPG. He’s going to be expensive, but he’s the most expensive by $2,600, so you don’t have to worry so much about other high priced pitchers tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $4,500 – In the highest projected run total of the night that doesn’t involve Coors Field, having some exposure to this game would be ideal. One of the top matchups has to be Encarnacion going up against Martin Perez. Encarnacion has some solid numbers against lefties this season, owning a .424 wOBA with an ISO of .321. While Encarnacion doesn’t hit many homers off of lefties, he does get on base against them a ton, which can only lead to plenty of opportunities. Coming into tonight, Perez owns a .327 wOBA.
Save Big by Drafting…
Alex Gordon – KCR vs. ATL (Julio Teheran) – $3,300 – After a slow start to the season, Gordon is starting to come back around. Over his last five games, Gordon is 6-17 with two home runs. Tonight he faces off against Julio Teheran, who won’t be winning any awards for pitching to left handed batters. Entering tonight, Teheran has allowed a .369 wOBA against lefties with four home runs allowed. Looking at Gordon, he certainly hasn’t struggled against righties, owning a .415 wOBA with an ISO of .167. For him being as cheap as he’s been at this price, he should be a solid addition to your lineup.
Stack Em Up
SFG vs. ARZ (Shelby Miller) – Miller has been downright brutal this season. Averaging 3.8 FPPG in seven starts this season is a pretty good indication. He’s made one appearance against the Giants this season allowing two runs in two innings with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Ouch. Miller is struggling against both hitters, owning a .388 wOBA against righties and a .369 against lefties. In a hitters park like Chase Stadium, I can’t imagine this going well for Miller. A Giants stack would be expensive tonight, but one I can’t see myself shying away from.