WATCH: PATRICK CORBIN’S UPSIDE AGAINST THE PIRATES


A full 15-game slate is upon us on this Friday night. With a Coors Field game WITH Clayton Kershaw pitching, we’re certainly in line for some unique rosters. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – Clayton Kershaw ($11,300) – Kershaw is taking a massive salary cut due to his Coors Field matchup, dropping $2,900 since his last start. The Rockies are tabbed for 4.3 runs tonight but are still almost two-run ‘dogs as of this afternoon. In five previous starts at Coors Field, Kershaw has averaged 22.5 DK fantasy points with the majority of those starts coming between 2014-2015. In a start at Coors earlier this season, Kershaw only managed 12.7 DK fantasy points, allowing four runs on eight hits, three of those being home runs in six innings of work. Kershaw is typically as automatic as it gets, but Coors certainly throws a wrench in that statement. Personally, I’m staying away.

Highest Totals

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – 10 projected runs – Naturally this game also checks in as the highest projected total of the night, with the Dodgers tabbed for 5.8 runs. Tyler Chatwood is taking the mound for the Rockies in his fifth home start of the year. In those previous home appearance, Chatwood has allowed a .367 wOBA with a .483 SLG and a .364 OBP with five of his nine home runs surrendered. The Dodgers have been decent at best on the road, owning a .316 wOBA with a .330 OBP and a low .380 SLG.

Weather Concerns

UPDATE: The PHI @ WAS game has been POSTPONED.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals (Nationals Park) – There is a very good chance this game will get postponed, as they’ll be seeing rain the entire day. Be sure to check in on this one closer to first pitch if you’re considering players here.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors Field is our number one ballpark when it’s on any slate. All offensive categories were favored here last season.
  • Chase Field – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field checks in as our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
  • Marlins Stadium – Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park earns the mark of the worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, not a single offensive category was favored here.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Detroit Tigers vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium is one of the most unfavorable ballparks for hitters. Home runs were the only category favored here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Tyler Glasnow.959.302Patrick Corbin.483.167
Alex Cobb.887.279Ervin Santana.515.155
Jhoulys Chacin.864.271Andrew Cashner.555.176

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jordan Zimmermann1.021.338Ervin Santana.442.111
Josh Tomlin.929.343Mike Leake.544.195
Patrick Corbin.841.301Clayton Kershaw.562.203

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Edwin EncarnacionErvin Santana262.88
Jay BruceMatt Garza332.81
Anthony RizzoMike Leake402.35

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Dylan Bundy – BAL vs. KC – $7,500 – Bundy at $7,500 against the Royals is just way too cheap tonight. The Royals have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, even at home. At home, the Royals own just a .278 wOBA with a .286 OBP and a .343 SLG with a 19.6 K%. I think Bundy is intriguing not only due to his low price but his average scores over his past two starts. I can easily see people gravitating toward Miguel Gonzalez or Mike Leake, both of whom are in the same price range as Bundy. Nonetheless, Bundy will enter this matchup with a .295 wOBA on the road with a .333 SLG and a .329 OBP.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Matt Carpenter – STL vs. CHC – $4,500 – With so many people likely leaning toward Coors tonight, I have no problem paying up for Carpenter. He’ll face Eddie Butler, who will be making his first start of the season for the Cubs. He’s been fantastic in the minors, but his major league numbers leave much to be desired. Granted, he was with the Rockies for three years, but during that span, Butler allowed a .415 wOBA to lefties on the road with a .542 SLG and a .422 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

David Peralta – ARI vs. PIT – $3,700 – Peralta is a cheap $3,700 tonight as he takes on Tyler Glasnow at home. Peralta has been crushing it at Chase Field against righties, owning a .479 wOBA with a .450 OBP and a .685 SLG. In his short time on the mound this season, Glasnow has allowed a .415 wOBA to lefties with a .528 SLG and a .431 OBP.

Stack Em Up

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Eddie Butler) – As I just mentioned, Butler will be making his return to the majors tonight against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have been decent at home, owning a .322 wOBA with a .338 OBP and a .404 SLG. With the exception of Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko, I expect the Cardinals to be low owned tonight, which always is a boost to choosing our stack.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.