Last night was a tough one if you faded someone like Max Scherzer. Trying to play catch up against a pitcher who posted just shy of 60 points was quite the tall task. That’s the beauty of DFS, today is a new day. Let’s jump into all the information for this slate of eight games. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
LAD (-210) vs. NYM – Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is a type of pitcher that is essentially matchup proof. Oh, Kershaw is going tonight? Perfect, I’ll throw him on my roster. Kershaw takes on a Mets team that is ranked 13th in wOBA against lefties at .330 with a K% of 24.6%, which is fifth in the league. Kershaw has been doing his normal routine of striking out everyone he sees, owning a 10.8 K/9 on the season. His walks are also way down this season, checking in with a 0.50 BB/9 after seven starts. Even with his high price tag of $13,300, I have no doubt Kershaw will be highly owned tonight.
BAL (-160) vs. DET – Ubaldo Jimenez – Jimenez is having quite a typical Jimenez season. He throws a absolute gem and then follows it up with two or three duds in a row. Averaging 14.5 FPPG, Jimenez owns a 4.54 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.8. He faces a Tigers team that struck out 20 times last night against Scherzer, so one would have to think what their mentality is coming into tonight’s game. Jimenez has really been struggling against lefties so far this season, owning a .418 wOBA against them with a .548 SLG%. The Tigers own a .323 wOBA with a 25.4 K%. Even though Jimenez and the Orioles are favored in this one against Mike Pelfrey, I don’t see either starting pitcher having much success in this one.
DET vs. BAL – 9 runs – It also doesn’t help that this is the highest projected run total game of the night. Since I’ve hit on Jimenez already, let’s take a look at Pelfrey. Coming into tonight, Pelfrey is averaging only 3.5 FPPG, owning a 6.23 ERA with a WHIP of 1.95. The Orioles currently rank second in wOBA against righties, owning a .361 wOBA with a .493 SLG% which also ranks second. Pelfrey has allowed a whopping six home runs already this season, splitting this evenly between left-handed hitters and right. Playing at Camden Yards, this is not the type of issues you want to have going into this matchup. I expect this to contain a ton of runs and be one of the top stacks of the night.
HOU vs. BOS – 8.5 runs – Crazy that this game features two former Cy Young winners, and it’s the second highest run total of the night. Just goes to show what type of year these two have been having. Keuchel has been rocked the majority of this season, averaging 13.8 FPPG and owning a 4.71 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP. He faces a Red Sox team that has CRUSHED the ball over the past week. During that time span, the Red Sox own a league leading .428 wOBA with a .613 SLG%. With the struggles Keuchel has endured already, this isn’t good news for him.
With Price, he’s been in the same boat, as right-handed hitters have been giving him the most trouble. Price owns a .352 wOBA against righties this season with four home runs allowed. Rumor has it that Price had discovered a flaw in his delivery that he’s adjusted, so we’ll see if that comes to fruition tonight. Before first pitch, however, it’s hard not to like this game for some runs with what we’ve seen from both pitchers so far this season.
1) PHI vs. ATL (Turner Field) – We have a chance of some thunderstorms later in the game, but it may not be an issue. Check it out closer to game time.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Camden Yards – DET vs BAL – Checking in as the number one ballpark for hitters on the night, Camden Yards had a favorable rating in runs, home runs and singles in 2015.
- Fenway Park – HOU vs BOS – Rated fourth overall last season, Fenway gets the nod for number two on this night. Fenway favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples last season.
- Angels Stadium of Anaheim – STL vs. LAA – Ranked the second worst hitters park in 2015, Angels Stadium only favored hitters in walks last season. That will really get the kids into baseball.
- Dodger Stadium – NYM vs LAD – From one bad hitters park to another, these two teams have no real advantage here. Dodger Stadium only favored home runs for hitters last season, and even that was at the bare minimum of 1.000.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Pelfrey||1.085||.420||Clayton Kershaw||.344||.152|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||.977||.355||David Price||.567||.179|
|Nathan Eovaldi||.910||.295||Vincent Velasquez||.573||.182|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adam Wainwright||.939||.326||Vincent Velasquez||.523||.194|
|Mike Pelfrey||.850||.273||Clayton Kershaw||.554||.214|
|Zack Greinke||.781||.284||Johnny Cueto||.588||.243|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Victor Martinez||Ubaldo Jimenez||29||2.79|
|Adrian Gonzalez||Bartolo Colon||24||2.37|
|Miguel Cabrera||Ubaldo Jimenez||43||2.16|
- Victor Martinez is like an ageless wonder. He gets older but still hits. In his career, he’s hit Jimenez quite well. Martinez is 9-29 with a double, four home runs and 11 RBIs.
- Adrian Gonazlez faces off Bartolo Colon tonight who he’s taken deep twice. Gonzalez is 11-24 with two doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Finally we have Miguel Cabrera, who has really picked his game up lately, taking on Jimenez. Cabrera is 15-43 with four doubles, a home run, eight RBIs and nine walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Adam Wainwright – STL vs. LAA – $7,200 – Just hear me out first before you start rolling your eyes and send me messages on Twitter telling me to delete my life. Wainwright was horrific in April, can’t deny it. But he’s looking like he’s starting to turn things around, posting three straight quality starts against the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Pirates. He takes on an Angels team, in LAA Stadium which is a pure pitchers park, for just $7,200. Yes, the Angels don’t strike out much, ranked second to last against righties, but they also own a .284 wOBA against righties, one of the lowest in the league. If you’re playing cash tonight, I think the pitchers to pick are pretty obvious, so I think Wainwright is a legit GPP play tonight. He won’t blow you out of the water with a 30 point game, but 15-17 isn’t out of the realm.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mark Trumbo – BAL vs DET (Mike Pelfrey) – $4,900 – Trumbo is a beast. Averaging 10.3 FPPG, he comes into tonight batting .323 with 11 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a 1.002 OPS. Getting a matchup tonight against a weak pitcher like Mike Pelfrey in Camden Yards is what dreams are made of. Trumbo owns a .441 wOBA against right-handed pitchers with an ISO of .274 and a SLG of .613. With Pelfrey already allowing six home runs on the season, I can’t imagine he can get out of this matchup unscathed. Paying up for Trumbo, and may other Orioles I might add, is the sensible thing to do.
Save Big by Drafting…
Randal Grichuk – STL vs LAA (Jered Weaver) – $3,200 – If you’ve read some of my articles before, you may have picked up on the fact that I’m a big fan of Grichuk. That doesn’t mean I can’t put my fanboy hat aside every once in awhile, but I can’t see how facing Weaver and his 17 mph fastball poses as a bad matchup for ol’ Randal. Against righties, Grichuk is posting a .324 wOBA with an ISO of .227. Even better, that wOBA goes up to .364 when on the road. For a cheap option tonight, especially if you’re going heavy on pitching, Grichuk is a power threat for cheap
Stack Em Up
BAL vs DET (Mike Pelfrey) – You read this entire article right? Perfect. You’re set.