With a nine game slate on tap tonight, we have plenty of options to choose from to bring us a successful night. As emperor of the Cheat Sheet, it’s my duty to bring you that information. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-220) vs. SDP – John Lackey – Lackey gets a matchup against one of our favorite teams to target against, the San Diego Padres. Coming into tonight, the Padres own a .278 wOBA against right-handed pitchers with a league leading 26 K%. Lackey comes into this start owning an 8.9 K/9, which should bode quite well with anyone looking to roster him tonight. Lackey is quite expensive tonight, looking at a salary of $11,100, but it should be well worth it. Just keep in mind, I highly except Lackey to be heavily owned across the board.
BOS (-175) vs. OAK – Rick Porcello – Porcello might be one of the biggest surprises in baseball right now. I mean, who realistically tabbed him to be 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, averaging 23.5 FPPG? He takes on the A’s, who the Red Sox have scored double digits on two nights in a row. The A’s currently own a .300 wOBA against RHP, but they aren’t striking out much against them, with an 18.6 K%. Porcello does lose a little bit with me playing in Fenway Park, but his $9,200 salary isn’t tough to handle either. He should be a fine play in all formats tonight.
OAK vs. BOS – 9 runs – No surprise that this game has a high run total, seeing as these teams have been putting up some good numbers. These teams have put up 39 runs in the past two games with the Red Sox responsible for 27 of those. Just a few weeks ago, the Red Sox were deemed a team that has struggled against lefties, but that has changed in a hurry lately. Facing off against Eric Surkamp tonight, the Red Sox now own a .330 wOBA against lefties with an ISO of .170. With showing no signs of slowing down, this could be another big night for the Red Sox. I’m a bit more skeptical on the A’s putting up some numbers against Porcello, so I’d focus more on the Sox in this one.
PIT vs CIN – 8.5 runs – 8.5 runs feels a bit low here. Alfredo Simon could allow that in the first inning alone. Regardless, this was slated to be one of the big targets last night, and instead is here for the taking tonight. The Pirates look to benefit the most here with the horrific splits of Simon. Coming into this start, Simon owns a wOBA of .531 against lefties and .402 against righties. This is also over the course of six starts, not one or two. The Pirates rank fifth in the league in wOBA against righties at .338 and should be the primary target in this matchup. Someone like John Jaso is someone I’m targeting across all formats tonight as he, like others in this Pirates lineup, have some favorable matchups.
|Targets||Read More||Cheat Sheet|
After a rough couple days for weather these past few nights, we have a clear slate of weather to look forward to. Roster these guys at will!
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Fenway Park – OAK vs BOS – A notorious hitters park, Fenway checks in as the top hitters park on the night. In 2015, Fenway had favorable ratings in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
- Great American Ballpark – PIT vs CIN – As if this matchup didn’t favor the Pirates enough, the Great American Ballpark ranks as the second best hitters park on the slate. In 2015, it had favorable ratings in every offensive category except triples.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – LAA vs. STL – Angel Stadium was the overall second worst stadium for hitters last season. I guess the Angels could use that excuse for their hitting this season. Anyways, the only offensive category that favored hitters here last season were walks.
- Dodger Stadium – NYM vs LAD – Park Factor shouldn’t really alter either team, as they both play in pitcher friendly ballpark. Dodger Stadium only favored home runs and doubles last season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Max Scherzer||1.054||.318||Jaime Garcia||.375||.156|
|Jerad Eickhoff||.877||.312||Kenta Maeda||.496||.164|
|Chase Anderson||.765||.239||Rick Porcello||.526||.183|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chase Anderson||1.151||.392||Max Scherzer||.477||.164|
|Rick Porcello||.796||.310||Jordan Zimmermann||.596||.233|
|Wei-Yin Chen||.787||.280||Jerad Eickhoff||.593||.180|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Daniel Murphy||Jordan Zimmermann||61||1.93|
|Billy Butler||Rick Porcello||52||1.78|
|Marcel Ozuna||Chase Anderson||12||1.41|
- Nothing mind blowing in terms of BvP on this night slate. Murphy essentially has the best here, going 20-61 with five doubles, four home runs and nine RBIs.
- Next is Billy Butler taking on Rick Porcello. Butler is 19-52 with five doubles, a home run and 10 RBIs.
- Finally, Ozuna was kind of a throw in here, as he hasn’t done anything extravagant against Anderson, but he does have five hits going 5-12 against him. For someone that is always left on the board, he could be a nice contrarian option.
Pitcher to Build Around
John Lackey – CHC vs. SDP – $11,100 – Lackey is going up against the Padres tonight. I’ve said numerous times that they’ve been terrible this year, and they strikeout a bunch against right-handed pitching. Add in the fact that they’ll be playing a double header today and face Lackey in the night cap and we have a perfect storm of reasons to jump on Lackey. Just to recap about the Padres, they come into this game owning a .278 wOBA against righties, which ranks 29th in the league, with a K% of 26, which is third in the league. So if they aren’t hitting and their striking out a ton, how do you pass this up?
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Ryan Braun – MIL vs MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) – $4,800 – Braun has a hefty price tag attached to him, but that shouldn’t shy you away from nabbing him for your roster. Braun faces off against left-handed pitcher Wei-Yin Chen with Braun owning a .474 wOBA against lefties this season with an ISO of .333. Naturally, Chen has seen his struggles against righties, allowing five home runs with a wOBA of .337. Braun is hitting like a man possessed at this point, and I’ll be on him 100% tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Khris Davis – OAK vs BOS (Rick Porcello ) – $3,600 – I certainly like Porcello tonight, so I’m not running to my phone to jump all over the A’s lineup. But Porcello is no stranger to giving up home runs, and Davis is no stranger to hitting them. So far this season, Davis has seven bombs with six of those coming against right-handed pitching. His overall hitting hasn’t been great, owning a .316 wOBA against righties, but he does have a .222 ISO. After only giving up nine home runs to righties last season, Porcello has allowed four in the early going. Could be a sneak play.
Stack Em Up
PIT vs CIN (Alfredo Simon) – It’s certainly the obvious stack on the night with how horrible Alfredo Simon has been. Besides some of the numbers I’ve posted already, Simon is averaging 2.9 FPPG. Guys, that’s over SIX STARTS. 2.9 points! With Simon being crushed by both left and right-handed batters, it’s not out of the realm that it won’t continue tonight, especially with how well the Pirates are hitting.