Wednesday brings us a nine-game slate for tonight. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and, as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres – Yu Darvish ($10,700) – Darvish and the Rangers are the heavy favorites for tonight as they take on the Padres. Facing the second-highest team in K% against right-handed pitching, Darvish and his 9.1 K/9 should be in line for a solid start tonight. Darvish has pitched four games at home this season and is averaging 21.5 FPPG with a .271 wOBA and a .333 SLG. With the Padres struggling against righties with a .294 wOBA and a .389 SLG, Darvish will likely be one of the most popular pitchers on this slate.
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 10 projected runs – Matthew Boyd and Zack Godley will take the mound tonight as these teams are slated in the highest projected run total of the night. The D-Backs are favored in this one with a 5.7 run projection, which is the highest on the slate. Boyd has been hit especially hard on the road in his first three starts, allowing a .397 wOBA with a .480 SLG and a .433 OBP. The D-Backs haven’t been strong against lefties thus far, but their home numbers are amongst the best in the league with a .366 wOBA and a .495 SLG.
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers (Globe Life Park) – This game could end up in a delay, as they have a slight chance of thunderstorms near the middle of the game. Also, 14mph wind is expected to be blowing in from right field over the course of the night.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Park) – Another problem area for tonight will be in Chicago. A very high chance of rain all throughout game time could certainly hinder their chances of playing.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Chase Field – Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field checks in as our most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
- Rogers Centre – Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Rogers Centre is our second-most favorable ballpark tonight as the Blue Jays host the Indians. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
- Dodger Stadium – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium ranks as our worst ballpark for hitters tonight’s slate. Last season, not a single offensive category was favored here.
- Marlins Park – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins – Both of these teams normally play in unfavorable ballparks, but Miami was one of the worst last season. No offensive categories were favored here last year.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Tom Koehler||1.266||.354||Derek Holland||.411||.158|
|Chad Kuhl||1.205||.413||Francisco Liriano||.426||.174|
|Luis Perdomo||.979||371||Stephen Strasburg||.488||.185|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Francisco Liriano||.898||.278||Lance Lynn||.402||.118|
|Jason Hammel||.886||.326||Luis Perdomo||.416||.180|
|Stephen Strasburg||.712||.261||Chad Kuhl||.495||.190|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Ryan Braun||Kyle Kendrick||21||2.8|
|Colby Rasmus||Jason Hammel||19||2.1|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Chris Archer – TB vs. KC – $10,800 – Just in case rain hinders our plans for Darvish against the Padres, Archer is my go-to for tonight. He’s facing one of the worst offenses in the league in the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Park, which always gives a pitcher that extra boost. In four home starts, Archer is averaging 21.9 FPPG in starts against the Yankees, Blue Jays (twice) and Tigers. The Royals own just a .284 wOBA against righties with a .284 OBP and a .360 SLG. Archer is only $100 more than Darvish tonight, making him a completely plausible option if trouble arises in Texas.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. DET – $4,700 – Did you expect someone else here? My formula is as follows:
Goldy + LHP + Chase Field = Instant Roster.
If you weren’t aware, Goldy crushed lefties at home last season, and while those numbers aren’t as impressive (yet) this season, this is still a great matchup for him. When a .386 wOBA with a .458 OBP is considered mediocre, you know those numbers were huge last season. As I mentioned, Boyd is allowing a .386 wOBA on the road against righties with a .477 SLG and a .415 OBP.
Save Big by Drafting…
Joc Pederson – LAD vs. PIT – $3,600 – Pederson will be taking on Chad Kuhl, who has always had issues with lefties. Kuhl is just shy of 100 innings pitched in the majors and owns a career .401 wOBA with a .550 SLG and a .401 OBP. Even though this game is at Dodger Stadium, Pederson hit 13 of his 25 home runs here all coming against righties.
Stack Em Up
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (Tom Koehler) – The ballpark the Cardinals are playing in ranks as one of the worst on the slate, but I can’t help but want to stack them against Koehler tonight. Over his last three starts, Koehler has allowed an insane 57% hard hit rate to opposing hitters. Fifty-seven percent! It should come as no surprise that with a number like that, home runs have been flying out during his starts. In his six starts, Koehler owns a 2.7 HR/9, which certainly plays into the Cardinals favor as they are ranked 10th in the league with 32 home runs against righties.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.